Cyprus-Forum.com

[Kikapu]

Thank you Elroz66, for that details explanation.
I have a couple of points to put to the 'other' camp, that think the lockdown is an 'overreaction' based on comments from 'experts' and are trying to rubbish the whole thing.

If i amy take as an example Tim and CG as two of the main proponents of this 'camp'.

1. You say all this speaking from a position of safety (in Cyprus), where there is a very small chance of infection especially if you are 'lockdown indoors'

2. Have either of you lost any family, close friends or aquaintences? I suspect you haven't so you cannot understand the real dangers. I have and it puts a whole new perspective on things.

3. You pose all these arguments, yet you offer no solutions, at least in the case of the opposite 'camp' their present solution is to lockdown . Those experts offer these opinions to make a name for themselves but offer no solution. I suspect your solution would be to open up and see what happens. Just today the WHO have stated to be prepared for the 2nd and 3rd wave of the virus. Perhaps it could come back more deadly who knows.

4. Isn't better to be safer than sorry? Do you have children/grandchildren, can you image any of them getting sick and dying, just because these 'experts' said it was ok. I am sure they have their own agenda, and I cannot understand why the whole planet doesn't just take their word and open everything up and to hell with it. You are making out that everyone else is so stupid and that you are the intelligent ones.

So, based on the masses of 'expert opinions' you have had, what is the way forward??

I would like to add one more important thing to the above.

While the two opposing camps are counting ONLY the dead bodies to support their arguments one way or the other, whether the lockdowns are/were necessary or not, the so called “ recovered” patients, which by far are more than the dead in the coronavirus epidemic, are people without suffering long after their treatments, especially those who have been on the ventilator, that they are not the same person they were before falling sick to the Covid-19 and that they still need further rehab, physically or mentally vs. other flu related illnesses. My brother has been out of coma for over a week now and is doing well each day breathing on his own and eating solid foods. He had a hard time to talk the first few days and further improvements are being made with the aid of speech therapist and his walking skills needs much improvement. He is still confused as to why he is in the hospital to begin with and why his family is not allowed to visit him. He feels a little abandoned by his family in his own mind, which is far from the truth. His mental capacity to comprehend and be in control of his thought processes is far less than desirable at this point, so please, the casualties of this virus is more than just the number of dead bodies.

[erolz66]

And we have an alternative model in the results from Sweden.

And there are plenty of scientists who claim the numbers will be the same whatever we do. Okay, lockdown means that we perhaps 'flatten the curve' and don't overload the medical system but the eventual numbers of those infected are likely to be the same.

I still believe the sensible thing to do would be to protect those who are particularly vulnerable and let the rest of us take sensible precautions and get on with our lives - and probably gain herd immunity in the process.

I accept that you may be right about all of this. What I do not accept is that there is no realistic chance that you might also be wrong. That actually Sweden ends up with more deaths that could have been avoided if different measures were taken. That flattening the curve is resulting in less people dying than if the measures were not taken. That actually 'immunity' on infection turns out to be short lived or of limited protection or the virus mutates negating the immunity gained post infection and thus the concept off 'herd immunity' and even to some degree a vaccine is 'overly optimistic'.

For me there just is not enough certainty, enough consensus , scientific or otherwise, on so many factors about this situation , that I can see or 'know' what is right or wrong with any degree of certainty. I just do not know and I end up in arguments with those who do claim to know whatever end of the spectrum they are (definite over reaction - definitely not over reaction). In such uncertainty and under a barrage of 'opinions' not just from MSM but everywhere, including here ranging at the extreme end of that spectrum all way through to David Icke as 'expert', what I return to, what is my 'crutch' is the hardest, plainest, simplest to understand numbers I know of. Which are the ONS total weekly death figures. Those coupled with my best efforts to think for myself are what I measure everything else against.

[erolz66]

My other 'crutch' , my other 'go to' place when trying to understand for myself from the raw numbers if one country is 'doing well' or not is what I keep calling 'the chart' or 'RW chart' found here https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/

This is still the best way for me to be able to see directly and simply 'how well' a county is doing, from the raw Hopkins data numbers. It is better than any of the 1000's of charts that plot over time, because it does not plot over time. This is my other core 'go to' place to try and seek understanding. Any time I read anything, from expert, from minority opinion expert, from MSM even from Paphitis, about how well a given country is doing, this is what I go to to 'test' what is being said.

[Cap]

'Three more people die from flu...'

Anyway, this is an actual Cyprus Mail article from 2019.
March 5, 2019. To be exact.

Basically, more Cypriots have died from Flu than Covid-19

Remember this is from 2019.
Actual, official Cyprus Mail documented CY Republic statistics from MORE than 1 year ago.

How do you explain it?

https://cyprus-mail.com/2019/03/05/thre ... c76Hw9MgLc

[Cap]

Seriously, how can you fabricate an article from 2019.
I want answers.
And I want them now.

[erolz66]

Seriously, how can you fabricate an article from 2019.
I want answers.
And I want them now.

Yes more people died from flu in 2019 in RoC than have died from covid-19 to date. So what ? Without the measures taken by the roc government to slow down and stop the spread, to track contacts of those tested positive, to keep testing more people and other things , how many today would already be dead ? We of course can not know this but you only have to look at bigger places, that did not stop the spread as well as the RoC has so far, like UK, US, Italy and many many others to be able to make a good guess that without such measure many many more Cypriots would be dead now and more than died of flu in 2019 ? Is that what you want cap ? Are you willing to gamble with Cypriot lives ?

[Cap]

Seriously, how can you fabricate an article from 2019.
I want answers.
And I want them now.

Yes more people died from flu in 2019 in RoC than have died from covid-19 to date. So what ? Without the measures taken by the roc government to slow down and stop the spread, to track contacts of those tested positive, to keep testing more people and other things , how many today would already be dead ? We of course can not know this but you only have to look at bigger places, that did not stop the spread as well as the RoC has so far, like UK, US, Italy and many many others to be able to make a good guess that without such measure many many more Cypriots would be dead now and more than died of flu in 2019 ? Is that what you want cap ? Are you willing to gamble with Cypriot lives ?

You sound like my wife Erol.
You think the measures had a positive effect?
I hope so... I don't think so.

[erolz66]

You sound like my wife Erol.
You think the measures had a positive effect?
I hope so... I don't think so.

I do not know with certainty that they have made a difference. I know there is good reason to think it is possible that without them things might be much worse in the RoC. It is not definite but there is enough for me to consider this a real possibility. When gambling with peoples lives I would rather be overly cautious and get it wrong then under cautious and get it wrong. Every day we get more data and the uncertainties reduce but still right now I think more is uncertain , unknown, best guesses than is not.

[Maximus]

Here is my useless BS opinion.

I think the lock down measure are necessary.

Why?

Because the health services would not be able to cope without restrictions on movement. There are not enough workers, supplies, beds, and ventilators even by trying to contain the spread of the virus.

The virus would have infected more people faster without the lock down measures. Seems obvious to me but that is just my learned opinion.

I am confident that these measures will not be enough though.

Why?

Because there is no vaccine yet and there hasn't been two weeks without a reported case to even suggest that the virus might have been eradicated..

In the case of Cyprus, there are still daily cases being reported albeit on a dwindling down trend. In the case of Britain, the daily reported cases may have plateaued at best but she had the highest number of deaths in a single day yesterday (4,419 deaths) compared with a daily average of about 800 !!.

before the lock down, Britain had experts on the TV suggesting that they should go the heard immunity route and keep the wheels of the economy turning. Even they estimated that the death toll would have been higher by doing this. Maybe in the hundreds of thousands or even reaching a million. But they didnt figure that there wasn't enough health related resources to cope with it..

So,

Once the current measures become more relaxed, we could see a resurgence of reported cases, which would most likely mean reverting back to lock down.

When this all started, most people didnt take it seriously. Compared to flue...yadda yadda yadda. I wont catch it....blah blah blah. Well A close friend of my family did and unfortunately, is no longer with us.

[Robin Hood]

Here is my useless BS opinion.

I think the lock down measure are necessary.

Why?

Because the health services would not be able to cope without restrictions on movement. There are not enough workers, supplies, beds, and ventilators even by trying to contain the spread of the virus.

The virus would have infected more people faster without the lock down measures. Seems obvious to me but that is just my learned opinion.

I am confident that these measures will not be enough though.

Why?

Because there is no vaccine yet and there hasn't been two weeks without a reported case to even suggest that the virus might have been eradicated..

In the case of Cyprus, there are still daily cases being reported albeit on a dwindling down trend. In the case of Britain, the daily reported cases may have plateaued at best but she had the highest number of deaths in a single day yesterday (4,419 deaths) compared with a daily average of about 800 !!.

before the lock down, Britain had experts on the TV suggesting that they should go the heard immunity route and keep the wheels of the economy turning. Even they estimated that the death toll would have been higher by doing this. Maybe in the hundreds of thousands or even reaching a million. But they didnt figure that there wasn't enough health related resources to cope with it..

So,

Once the current measures become more relaxed, we could see a resurgence of reported cases, which would most likely mean reverting back to lock down.

When this all started, most people didnt take it seriously. Compared to flue...yadda yadda yadda. I wont catch it....blah blah blah. Well A close friend of my family did and unfortunately, is no longer with us.

I think your view sums up the situation very well! The lockdown basically was to slow down the infection rate so that the health services were not overwhelmed ...... but in the long run I suspect the total number that will die through the virus is going to be the about same but over a longer time scale? So a resurgence is a distinct possibility!