Kikapu wrote:erolz66 wrote:erolz66 wrote:Over next weeks and months I predict a recovery of bitcoin. It's instant 24-7 , 7 days a week liquidity without 'circuit breakers' and closing of exchanges and the protection from central banks printing money in vast amounts will increasingly become understood by more and more people leading to price increase. imho
Does look like bticoin is 'decoupling' from traditional markets today, having been pretty much in lock step with stock markets in previous week to 10 days or so.
I didn’t realize Bitcoin was in lockstep with the traditional market, Erol. In 2018 Bitcoin peaked at around 20,000 when the traditional market was still moving up at much slower rate, taking another 2 years to reach it’s peak in 2020, about a month ago. As the traditional market was reaching new highs up to a month ago, Bitcoin had lost 75% of it’s value from it’s peak 2 years ago. The graphs show that Bitcoin and the traditional markets in general has been moving in opposite directions historically, even if the histor isn’t that long..
No I mean it has been in lock step since the coronavirus outbreak. The big falls on dow and ftse and the like were mirrored by bitcoin in direction - degree was similar. When fed pumped money in the initial rise and then fall back was mirrored on both. Until today. Now its seems to be decoupling (again like it was pre CV outbreak).
My take on it is the first 'panic' reaction was basically everyone selling everything and turning it in to cash. Even traditional safe have assets like gold saw a degree of this. We are now moving in to a new phase. Now people who have turned assets in to cash are looking at the global trillion dollar plus 'printing new money' efforts from central banks around the world and are worried that this will erode the value of their cash holdings steadily over time. Bitcoin offers some degree of hedge against this in that volatile as it is as an asset class no one, central bank or otherwise, can just start printing more bitcoin as a political response to crisis. The supply of new coins is set in code, not in smoking rooms of 'experts'. It is a true and genuine global free market where by you can liquidate your bitcoin assets at any time, 24 /7 , 7 days a week. No 'circuit breakers', no market closing, be it for weekend or from political fiat. I think these attributes at this time have a 'uniqueness' that is attractive in these crazy times. Just my pwn personal 'guess'. I could be entirely wrong. I did 'buy the dip' , with modest amounts of cash, to add to my existing bitcoin holdings, when it dropped to the 5K USD range. So far this seems to be a not totally stupid move. Nor was it an easy decision. I was close to panic selling when the initial big drop (in lock with stock markets and other assets classes) was in full swing but managed to resist the temptation. Just. Time will tell how good or bad a call that was.
