Cyprus-Forum.com

[repulsewarrior]

...for the record, i will include the moments i feel define the historical progress of events.

Libya has already been linked to the Cyprus Problem, like the Gas and Oil in the Eastern Med. (and the Aegean), by Turkey, and the so-called ''TRNC''.

...beyond this, there is the conflict as it is, in Libya, the UN with Turkey and Qatar, against the Russians, French, the Arabs, the US not involved, to sum it up, by the player's allies; (let's not forget Italy's involvement with Libya, France, Greece and Cyprus), Spain too has a Navy, and security interests. It is possible that this issue, Libya, may become a major topic soon.

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-1 ... 631548.htm

...while it is possible for America, to take the position against Russia, it may be that, in Libya like in Cyprus, Americans and Russians find themselves holding the same position. As allies in these circumstances, a dialog may open that did not exist before, and that can be supported in a manner where Turkey's ambition may also find in it, reward, something beyond the Treaty of Lausanne, with the recognition that Cypriots exist, (so too the Alevi and Kurds in Turkey).

...it is clearer, what "Blue Turkey" means to Turkey's Erdogan, the Black Sea it seems is the final piece of the puzzle, (and the Bosporus). Russia is surely wary, what is their "pond" under threat; it is a fine balance Turkey is playing. Libya, like Syria, depends on Russia's (and American,) non aggression.

[Maximus]

Casavolgu says he is waiting on the UN to approve Turkeys continental shelf with the renewed western boundaries agreed with Libya.

Imagine not recognizing the UN's law of the sea and then waiting for the UN to approve something that violates it.

[Paphitis]

The USA will take the side of Khalifa Haktar if any, along with France, Italy, Egypt, Israel, Saudi Arabia and UAE.

Greece by default will also be on that side because Turkey has aligned itself with the Government thanks to a dodgy MOU about Oil and Gas which ignore the Crete EEZ under UNCLOS.

I am not sure what side the Russians are on but presume they are with the Government or on the same side of Turkey to destabilise NATO

[Paphitis]

Just some background here.

Khalifa Haktar is a US Citizen and poses as a moderate. He is also at war with Islamic State.

Turkey is using this as a proxy against Greece to set up a fait accompli on Oil and Gas reserves belonging to Greece.

Therefore, Greece must enter this dispute too to destabilise the Libyan Government and support Khalifa.

[Maximus]

There are already factions inside Libya that say that the agreement with Turkey is invalid and lacks legality.

They are already working with Greek officials to neutralise it and say that they will resist anyone who interferes in Libya's internal affairs.

In other words, Turkey is interfering in Libya's internal affairs and they know it.

[Kikapu]

The USA will take the side of Khalifa Haktar if any, along with France, Italy, Egypt, Israel, Saudi Arabia and UAE.

Greece by default will also be on that side because Turkey has aligned itself with the Government thanks to a dodgy MOU about Oil and Gas which ignore the Crete EEZ under UNCLOS.

I am not sure what side the Russians are on but presume they are with the Government or on the same side of Turkey to destabilise NATO

At the moment Russia is on Haktar’s side.

Turkey knows their MOU with the half country Libya is invalid, which is why they want to make deals with other Med countries to form their EEZ boundaries pronto, which would give them more area than they have now, but everyone knows that Turkey wants to steal others rights through the back door. They are even willing to send Turkish troops so that to safeguard the MOU. As soon as Tripoli falls to Haktar’s military, so will Turkey’s MOU with Libya.

[repulsewarrior]

...it is no coincidence that all the neighbouring countries get something more, territoriality speaking, if they ignore their commitments to the East Med. Gas Forum; it is not likely. No one but Turkey (and the Libyan regime), believes their view, that UNCLOS is unenforceable.

Where Turkey is a late-comer to the game, she still remains an equal among equals; she may join them at any time on these terms. While her maximalist approach may be most disturbing to the balance of power as it is, no real demonstration of superiority as yet has been demonstrated. Her claims as yet are claims, neither tested in a Court of Law, or the High Seas.

Qatar and Exxon will exploit their plot soon. Accordingly Italy and France will explore the blocks adjoining. Italy and Korea are soon to make further explorations near the Aphrodite field, where Nobel and Delek are closing their deal to sell and transport gas to Egypt's plants. With the threats that Turkey has made against any exploration, let alone exploitation, her delays to this work in any individual circumstance may cause the worst result for Turkey generally, more unity. However, if Turkey remains unopposed, she strengthens her position in any negotiation she accepts at some later date, if they are an advantage to her.

Turkey loses nothing from her position, that the gleam has been tarnished; it is a good reason to expect that there is more to come.

[Paphitis]

There are already factions inside Libya that say that the agreement with Turkey is invalid and lacks legality.

They are already working with Greek officials to neutralise it and say that they will resist anyone who interferes in Libya's internal affairs.

In other words, Turkey is interfering in Libya's internal affairs and they know it.

There are many opposition factions including Islamic State.

But the main player seems to be Khalifa Haktar and his rebels supported by Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Israel, Italy and France.

Egypt has been a huge supporter of Khalifa along with Saudi Arabia, and UAE and perhaps Jordan as well. He has powerful friends in Italy and France also which means US behind the shadows as well.

It is said that Israel has ground troops with Khalifa forces training the rebels as well.

So you have this strange situation whereby alliances are shifting and Israel, Egypt and Jordan are on the same page.

It would be Khalifa who would have been against the Libya/Turkey MOU. Which makes Khalifa a default ally of Greece also. Let's not forget that Greece, Egypt and Israel have formed an axis and pretty much in a tight alliance now. Who would have thought? Oil and Gas is capable of everything especially when Trillions are at stake. Each of these countries wish to cooperate and delineate their EEZ border. They have bonded well. They all see Turkey as the threat and will try to counter them.

[Paphitis]

The USA will take the side of Khalifa Haktar if any, along with France, Italy, Egypt, Israel, Saudi Arabia and UAE.

Greece by default will also be on that side because Turkey has aligned itself with the Government thanks to a dodgy MOU about Oil and Gas which ignore the Crete EEZ under UNCLOS.

I am not sure what side the Russians are on but presume they are with the Government or on the same side of Turkey to destabilise NATO

At the moment Russia is on Haktar’s side.

Turkey knows their MOU with the half country Libya is invalid, which is why they want to make deals with other Med countries to form their EEZ boundaries pronto, which would give them more area than they have now, but everyone knows that Turkey wants to steal others rights through the back door. They are even willing to send Turkish troops so that to safeguard the MOU. As soon as Tripoli falls to Haktar’s military, so will Turkey’s MOU with Libya.

Well if that is Turkey's plan, Egypt, Greece, and Israel have already signed a MOU in accordance with UNCLOS and are cooperating with each other. They have formed a nice little Axis which also includes Cyprus, hence why you see Israeli Military in Cyprus participating in the annual Cyprus National Guard Exercises with the RoC. No one thought this was possible 20 years ago, but today, IDF and CNG participate in exercises and have developed a remarkable friendship. Also with Egypt which is not to be understated.

Lebanon is the wild card here. Lebanon and Israel are bitter enemies, so they may go with Turkey as an FU to Israel but as I understand it, Lebanon doesn't like Turkey too much either.

What Greece needs to do is approach Tunisia and sign a MOU before Turkey does.

Either way, the MOU between Libya and Turkey is illegal and the UN will not accept the agreement under any circumstances because it violated UNCLOS. But what Turkey is trying to do is establish a fait accompli where might = right. They have every intention to commence drilling and eventually begin commercial exploitation of resources that do not belong to them and dare Greece to do anything about it. If Greece does nothing, then Turkey has possibly succeeded.

However, Greece has threatened Turkey that any drilling vessel will be fired upon and warned and if they continue, the ship will be sunk. this is a first time Greece has issued such an ultimatum. Greece is possibly encouraged by France, Italy, Egypt and Israel as well.

Also, Khalifa Rebels destroyed 2 Turkish Aircraft in Libya that were bringing arms to Libya for their opponents. So Khalifa is officially at war with Turkey.

Greece now has to weigh its options and perhaps start talking to their Italian and French friends and offer assistance to them and to the Khalifa rebels. Trillions are at stake here. The actual viability and well being of every Greek citizen is at stake here, and boy do they need a break.

And since Greece issued a threat against Turkey, Greece must act on it and not back down. If they back down, they have lost.

The situation is very dire now for both Greece and Cyprus and the way I see it, we are very close to war with Turkey. First it will be a proxy, but if Turkey drills then it's going to get very real when the Greek Navy fires on that Turkish Ship.

The Greek Government needs to be working on this 24/7 and start getting on the phone and talking to Trump, Israelis, French, Italians, and the Egyptians and start getting advice from the Hellenic Armed Forces leadership if they haven't already.

Greece needs to sign a deal with the Americans for some F-35s and AWACS as well.

[Kikapu]

...it is no coincidence that all the neighbouring countries get something more, territoriality speaking, if they ignore their commitments to the East Med. Gas Forum; it is not likely. No one but Turkey (and the Libyan regime), believes their view, that UNCLOS is unenforceable.

Where Turkey is a late-comer to the game, she still remains an equal among equals; she may join them at any time on these terms. While her maximalist approach may be most disturbing to the balance of power as it is, no real demonstration of superiority as yet has been demonstrated. Her claims as yet are claims, neither tested in a Court of Law, or the High Seas.

But it has been tested, in which island countries like the UK and Iceland do have their 200 miles EEZ, so Turkey is just pissing into the wind when she makes a false claims that Islands Cyprus and Crete and all the other Greek islands can only have 12 miles of territorial waters. Turkey has nothing to lose by trying once again to steal what belongs to others, but she won’t get away with it. I doubt she will even go to the ICJ to defend her case when the time comes.