Kikapu wrote:Paphitis wrote:Pyrpolizer wrote:Paphitis wrote:
What it proves is that you had a major meltdown. A 45% collapse from 2008 is an unprecedented collapse comparable only to Iceland, Argentina, Zimbabwe and maybe some other African tinpots. You are a member of the EU and according to your link to had a 40% drop from 2008 till 2015.
Are you kidding. You couldn't even write about it. This is a calamity. This is a disaster. And it all happened under the ECB's watch.
But you said it was your fault.
OK then, but again I ask you what about Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland. they had a big fall as well. Not as big as Greece and Cyprus but their GDP did still reduce by significant amounts.
Eat your heart out Zimbabwe.
Once again, I wouldn't worry about any KPMG predictions. They have interests for Britain to stay in the EU.
If there is a trade deal there will be no reduction at all for anyone and therefore no GDP drop attributable to Brexit. And this is what is most likely to occur because the Germans are not exactly going to kiss many tens of thousands of manufacturing jobs good bye which will also potentially slide them into deep recession.
Britain is not Cyprus or Greece. It has many friends and it produces a lot within its economy. Tgheir economy is broad and they will trade their way out of anything over the next 5 to 10 years.
You just proved once again you are just a "kistimeno" little child who in the absence of any arguments starts hitting below the belt, reverting to his favorite target, Cyprus. Fyi, he have doubled our GDP from 2000 to 2008 and whereas from 2004 (when we joined the EU) to 2008 we had an equal 45% increase to what we lost from 2008 to 2015. Big booms big recessions nothing unusual. We ended up in 2016 at a bit higher level than in 2004 which is quite normal.
I have already replied to you about Spain Italy Portugal etc. but it seems you didn't understand one iota. Go on try to drag me to endless discussions on those....
Back to Brexit now: You have to read KPMG's full report. Even with a deal there will be a GDP drop both in the shortrun and the long run. But it will be about half the drop of Brexit with no deal.
The point however is not the GDP drop alone. It's the GDP drop + the devaluation of the currency + higher prices of imported products that might end up making the British people poorer by as much as 5-10% in just one year.
I don't think you understand how GDP works.
Doubling GDP from 2000 to 2008 is just a standard thing and the big economies did even better than double their economy but they didn't retract by 26% over the next 6 year of the GFC. They slowed down. Some even slipped into a recession and lost maybe a few percent but not 26%. Others just slowed down but kept growing.
In order to double ones GDP in 8 years, their economy would need to grow about 12% a year for 8 years straight. Even emerging market countries only grow about 7-8% a year at max, and for the advanced economy countries at about 0-3%.
So which countries has doubled their GDP between 2000 to 2008?
Yes very true that developed economies grow much slower. All I know is that they had a booming environment between 2000 and 2008 and growed at a fast rate. I did not look at whether or not they doubled between those years. In 2008 and 2009, all developed economies slowed down due to the GFC. All emerging markets like China also slowed down. Some countries went into recession. Some countries went into a catastrophic decline (Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Ireland which are all EU members). Other countries like Australia and Norway weathered the GFC well and kept growing.
The only non member EU countries that had major spiral dives were Iceland and Argentina. Everyone else just had slow downs where they either still grew at a decelerated rate or a minor shallow recession where their GDP retracted at a very marginal rate of 1 to 2%. So it really is funny to me how some here get on their high horse when it comes to the EU and yet it is the Eurozone that really had the GFC meltdown. Other countries outside of the EU did ok. This tells you that there are major problems with the Eurozone and these problems as well as the draconian austerity on the pauper Southern European States decimated those economies and inflicted enormous pain on millions of people.
I just took Pyro's claim as gospel without looking into it. He said that Cyprus doubled its GDP between 2000 and 2008. Cyprus is not an emerging developing market. It is an OECD member or developed economy.
In addition, not even the major emerging markets like China, India, and Indonesia grew by that much between 2000 and 2009 - they averaged about 7% growth in those years which is still phenomenal.
To answer your question. I don't know of any countries who doubled their GDP between 2000 and 2008. I never looked into it and I never made that claim. According to Pyro, Cyprus had (which isn't true), and I just accepted it. Cyprus has a very small GDP so it may be possible Cyprus was in a balloon as a small state GDP but we all know what happens to that balloon. A Spiral Dive of unprecedented proportions. That is catastrophic. Most countries try to aim for 3 to 4% growth when times are good. It is not unusual for developed countries to want to slow down their growth rates if inflation increases by more than 3 to 4%. The Central Banks do that by raising interest rates to curb the economy and cool it down and tighten lending which means the Banks don't lend money as freely. This is what happens in Australia. In Cyprus, you do not have a Central bank anymore. You have the ECB which only looks after the big end of town. they don't give a rats about Cyprus or any other Southern European State. it's about the French and Germans.
There may be some countries that did double their GDP if we look into it in a deep and meaningful way and they would probably be some small African, or Pacific islander small states that are starting at a small base. Maybe only these types of countries can double their tiny GDP's.
