Cyprus-Forum.com

[Paphitis]

The revolution continues!

[Lordo]

first it was terggish coffee and it became greek coffee
then it was terggish delight and then it became greek delight
then we had hellim and it became halloumi
and now
what is going on with these ladies and the priest.

[Paphitis]

first it was terggish coffee and it became greek coffee
then it was terggish delight and then it became greek delight
then we had hellim and it became halloumi
and now
what is going on with these ladies and the priest.

The got invited to a Justin Truduea fancy dress party.

[cyprusgrump]

first it was terggish coffee and it became greek coffee
then it was terggish delight and then it became greek delight
then we had hellim and it became halloumi
and now
what is going on with these ladies and the priest.

It is The People's Front of Judea!

[Londonrake]

first it was terggish coffee and it became greek coffee
then it was terggish delight and then it became greek delight
then we had hellim and it became halloumi
and now
what is going on with these ladies and the priest.

It is The People's Front of Judea!

Bastards! We're the Judean People's Front.

[cyprusgrump]

first it was terggish coffee and it became greek coffee
then it was terggish delight and then it became greek delight
then we had hellim and it became halloumi
and now
what is going on with these ladies and the priest.

It is The People's Front of Judea!

Bastards! We're the Judean People's Front.

Splitter!

[Pyrpolizer]

I don't think you understand how GDP works.

Australia has never had a decrease in GDP for the last 36 years. They came close recently where they only added 0.4% in a qaurter but then accelerated again. But they are flatlining and they think that is a disaster.

You can double your GDP but when you lose 40% (you came up with that figure not me) in a few years, then that is more than a recession. That it a total meltdown and collapse. You needed a bail out. Your Banks when under. People had their deposits taken away from them above 100K

Doubling GDP from 2000 to 2008 is just a standard thing and the big economies did even better than double their economy but they didn't retract by 26% over the next 6 year of the GFC. They slowed down. Some even slipped into a recession and lost maybe a few percent but not 26%. Others just slowed down but kept growing.

Cyprus is not my favorite example. I am just using Cyprus and Greece as an example because as EU members they had a massive collapse from within the Eurozone. But not only them. You said it was their fault. I actually place a lot of the blame on the Eurozone for deepening the collapse in Greece and Cyprus and making it 10 times worse than it had to be. And of course they were not the only EU members to go backwards by a significant amount - Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland were hit hard as well.

Your GDP back in 2008 was larger still than the GDP of Cyprus in 2019. You are only just about to break even after 12 years.

Your GDP in 2009 was 25.94 Billion. In 2015 your GDP was 19.68 Billion (that is a 26% reduction from 2009). And in 2019, your GDP was 24.47 Billion which is still less than what it was in 2009. This isn't just a recession. It's a total calamity.

I can see that Maths wasn't your strong point.

And yet you spout your project fear about BREXIT!

https://tradingeconomics.com/cyprus/gdp

I never said I can correct the mathematical mess you just demonstrated.

[Pyrpolizer]

However as I already told Paphitis is not only the GDP that matters. After all what's the GDP, people will continue to work, continue receiving about the same salaries so the GDP is not expected to change by much.

GDP can be calculated using 1) Income approach 2) Expenditure approach. You are saying people will continue receiving about the same salaries. However, salaries as part of national income is strongly tied up with production, that is, if this latter falters, so will the salaries. And a decrease in salaries entails less spending and less spending will further depress production.It is a kind of vicious circle..

What matters is the GDP drop+devaluation of currency+higher prices for imports.
All of them together will certainly make the British people poorer after Brexit with no deal.
Of course this is not going to affect the elites. It will affect the pensioners, and the lower classes.

Well, again, a devaluation of currency ( I guess depreciation is the more appropriate term to use here since UK FX regime is supposed to be floating regime) might also have favorable effect on current account.Everything depends on UK's trade elasticity.
I am not trying to contradict anyone here , just simply trying see the loose ends. Still, I can't understand how a word-class economy like UK ( Britain produced the best economists in the world) could wander into Brexitland without any preliminary measures, this is a big dark spot for me. One last issue, how financial city of London will be affected ? Will it be completely overwhelmed by either Paris or Frankfurt ?

Hello,
I was just concentrating to the first year after Brexit with no deal.

Which preliminary measures did you have in mind?

I don't think the financial city of London will be taken over by anyone simply because no one wants to have a monster killing the rest of it's economy. It will be affected though especially if there's a Brexit with no deal. It all depends how the Bank of England will adopt policies favoring other sectors of it's economy.

[Kikapu]

What it proves is that you had a major meltdown. A 45% collapse from 2008 is an unprecedented collapse comparable only to Iceland, Argentina, Zimbabwe and maybe some other African tinpots. You are a member of the EU and according to your link to had a 40% drop from 2008 till 2015.

Are you kidding. You couldn't even write about it. This is a calamity. This is a disaster. And it all happened under the ECB's watch.

But you said it was your fault.

OK then, but again I ask you what about Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland. they had a big fall as well. Not as big as Greece and Cyprus but their GDP did still reduce by significant amounts.

Eat your heart out Zimbabwe.

Once again, I wouldn't worry about any KPMG predictions. They have interests for Britain to stay in the EU.

If there is a trade deal there will be no reduction at all for anyone and therefore no GDP drop attributable to Brexit. And this is what is most likely to occur because the Germans are not exactly going to kiss many tens of thousands of manufacturing jobs good bye which will also potentially slide them into deep recession.

Britain is not Cyprus or Greece. It has many friends and it produces a lot within its economy. Tgheir economy is broad and they will trade their way out of anything over the next 5 to 10 years.

You just proved once again you are just a "kistimeno" little child who in the absence of any arguments starts hitting below the belt, reverting to his favorite target, Cyprus. Fyi, he have doubled our GDP from 2000 to 2008 and whereas from 2004 (when we joined the EU) to 2008 we had an equal 45% increase to what we lost from 2008 to 2015. Big booms big recessions nothing unusual. We ended up in 2016 at a bit higher level than in 2004 which is quite normal.

I have already replied to you about Spain Italy Portugal etc. but it seems you didn't understand one iota. Go on try to drag me to endless discussions on those....

Back to Brexit now: You have to read KPMG's full report. Even with a deal there will be a GDP drop both in the shortrun and the long run. But it will be about half the drop of Brexit with no deal.
The point however is not the GDP drop alone. It's the GDP drop + the devaluation of the currency + higher prices of imported products that might end up making the British people poorer by as much as 5-10% in just one year.

I don't think you understand how GDP works.

Doubling GDP from 2000 to 2008 is just a standard thing and the big economies did even better than double their economy but they didn't retract by 26% over the next 6 year of the GFC. They slowed down. Some even slipped into a recession and lost maybe a few percent but not 26%. Others just slowed down but kept growing.

In order to double ones GDP in 8 years, their economy would need to grow about 12% a year for 8 years straight. Even emerging market countries only grow about 7-8% a year at max, and for the advanced economy countries at about 0-3%.

So which countries has doubled their GDP between 2000 to 2008?

[Lordo]

you cannot make it up. no sooner do they give to the eu a non-paper now they are asking for the papers to be kept secret from the 27 countries. what exactl for, do you suppose they will be asked to vote on it without looking at its content, not that is anything to vote on. it is just some ideas for the eu to see if they would agree with any.

the government is running a primary school.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/20/fresh-brexit-talks-row-uk-eu-proposals-secret?fbclid=IwAR1HvfERWSJRBBzQt4oFywYhe2NOoShfsamXkQIajWiXCz3kqNmoUceUzt4