Cyprus-Forum.com

[Pyrpolizer]

Don't friggin kid yourself. 6.6% of these exports will wipe tens of thousands of jobs because 6.6% is a massive figure.

And no, Britain will not lose 56% of its trade. It will continue unaffected as it is also likely that Germany will continue to trade with the UK under current rules.

No one is going to kiss Billions away. Money always talks and the bullshit fear mongering will always walk. Capitalism always rules the roost.

But yeh, if capitalism does not prevail, Germany is looking at a potentially very big recession which will be larger than 2% I only stated 2% as a conservative figure> I am no wizard and can't predict the fallout.

I never said Germany is going to lose 6.6% of it's exports to the UK. I said "lose" 6.6% of it's exports for the purpose of pushing you to think that if that "loss" would be enough for Germany to plunge into a 2% recession, then how much would the recession be for the UK in "losing" 56% of it's own.
Thank you for proving you can't solve an elementary school mathematical problem.

[Lordo]

what a day this turned out to be and i missed al lthe fun. i had to work for a living today, unusually i have plenty of time to go on the net but not today, i was rather restricted in my usual activities.

so his lordships kept trying to find out if they declare prorogation unlawful what will manchild do? Wil he prorogue again? i wonder why. in fact the supreme court just has to say both decisions of the courts were legally correct according to the law in their own are and job done. let the scottish court sort manchild out.

what a day it has been today. and now we find out that an tory x-pm accused the current one of being a eatage agent of the worst kind.

on top of that as if that was not enough excitement to live with, our more recent tory x-pm had asked the queen to help with the scottish independence vote by making a statement pro-remain part of the uk. so it seems in one move we will have a proper constitution whcich cannot be abused and a republic to boot. we can send her to the outback with the rest of the criminal or stand trial for abuse of power. he he he what a turn up for the book.

[Paphitis]

Yeah right.. the only difference is that KPMG's study was based on T. May's DEAL

No, it’s not, and it isn’t a “study”.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... on-in-2020

Do bear in mind, nobody’s impartial in these matters. Moreover, these are “predictions” (aka guesses). The reality is, absolutely nobody can see how events will unfold. It would be unknown territory. Furthermore, KPMG are a company with a vested interest in the UK staying in the EU. You’ll accept what they say - because you want to. I’m a bit more cynical.

Also, Cyprus’s GDP didn’t drop 40% in 2013 You’re just plucking these figures out of thin air. Like I said, making it up as you go along.

I am glad you noticed from the link I provided that Cyprus did not have a fall in GDP of almost 40% in 2013 alone, but almost 40% relative to the peak value of 2008 which increased to 45% by 2015. This proves that contrary to Paphitis you do read links

If you download KPMG’s document titled "uk-economic-outlook-dec-2018.pdf" under the chapter "Long term consequences of exiting the EU" they said:

Analysis of the effect of Brexit published by the London School of Economics’ Centre for Economic Performance and King’s College London shows the difference between a WTO scenario and remaining in the EU to be 8.7% in terms of GDP per capita. A milder scenario depicting a deal with the EU including no tariffs and customs, but some border friction and lower EU migration, is estimated to lower GDP per capita by 5.5% by 2030.

The total loss however is not only the drop in GDP but also the loss of growth the UK would otherwise have if it stayed in the EU.
Hence I have no problem admitting that I was wrong it would have a drop of GDP per capita of 20% in the first year, but there’s is a possibility the UK’s total loss to be that much in the long run.

The point is for how many years this 1.5% drop in GDP that KPMG predicted is going to be repeated year after year. Considering the numbers given by various analysts It looks it’s going to be repeated for 3 to 6 years after which the UK will start having a growth again. Nobody however made any prediction how much that growth is going to be.

What it proves is that you had a major meltdown. A 45% collapse from 2008 is an unprecedented collapse comparable only to Iceland, Argentina, Zimbabwe and maybe some other African tinpots. You are a member of the EU and according to your link to had a 40% drop from 2008 till 2015.

Are you kidding. You couldn't even write about it. This is a calamity. This is a disaster. And it all happened under the ECB's watch.

But you said it was your fault.

OK then, but again I ask you what about Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland. they had a big fall as well. Not as big as Greece and Cyprus but their GDP did still reduce by significant amounts.

Eat your heart out Zimbabwe.

Once again, I wouldn't worry about any KPMG predictions. They have interests for Britain to stay in the EU.

If there is a trade deal there will be no reduction at all for anyone and therefore no GDP drop attributable to Brexit. And this is what is most likely to occur because the Germans are not exactly going to kiss many tens of thousands of manufacturing jobs good bye which will also potentially slide them into deep recession.

Britain is not Cyprus or Greece. It has many friends and it produces a lot within its economy. Tgheir economy is broad and they will trade their way out of anything over the next 5 to 10 years.

[Paphitis]

Don't friggin kid yourself. 6.6% of these exports will wipe tens of thousands of jobs because 6.6% is a massive figure.

And no, Britain will not lose 56% of its trade. It will continue unaffected as it is also likely that Germany will continue to trade with the UK under current rules.

No one is going to kiss Billions away. Money always talks and the bullshit fear mongering will always walk. Capitalism always rules the roost.

But yeh, if capitalism does not prevail, Germany is looking at a potentially very big recession which will be larger than 2% I only stated 2% as a conservative figure> I am no wizard and can't predict the fallout.

I never said Germany is going to lose 6.6% of it's exports to the UK. I said "lose" 6.6% of it's exports for the purpose of pushing you to think that if that "loss" would be enough for Germany to plunge into a 2% recession, then how much would the recession be for the UK in "losing" 56% of it's own.
Thank you for proving you can't solve an elementary school mathematical problem.

No country is going to lose anything.

If you watched the debates of the Euro parliament, there is now a palpable FEAR from Junker, and the Heads of the EU commission for a NO DEAL BREXIT. The Germans in particular have taken a very conciliatory stance towards Britain and appear eager to negotiate with the Brits a new FTD and relationship with Britain after Brexit.

Not only this, but the Australian PM has come out and stated that the UK and Australia have basically agreed on a Free Trade Deal and are waiting for BREXIT to occur in order to implement the agreement. Right now, Britain is not even allowed to negotiate. There is another agreement with the US as well.

Either way, the people have decided to BREXIT. The British People are happy to accept the short term costs to their economy in order to regain control of their country. Money and GDP loss can always be regained after a period of time but the loss of the Nation's institutions, and sovereignty is far more severe. and a far greater disaster.

Can you actually comprehend the fact that these institutions are part of their identity and who they are?

[Paphitis]

Well everything seems to be falling Britain's way.

Look at this video towards the end. Junker is scared of no deal. EU is scared of no deal.

So it is probable that the UK and EU will reach a deal by the 17th of October. Boris will take it to the House of Commons. It will be voted down because the british parliament are against BREXIT and want to overturn BREXIT altogether and the UK will BREXIT with NO DEAL and enter in further negotiations for a FTD.

[Londonrake]

Pyro.

Thanks for taking the time to respond.

One of the features of this situation, since day one, has been the use of propaganda (aka lies) to promote each side of the cause. Whilst I've lost count of the likes of the NHS bus being trawled over, the blatant lies the "establishment" told ********* in the referendum campaign have been swept away though. Never to be discussed by the remain cause who, in essence, act as though it never happened. Despite that, to myself and a great many others it's fundamental.

Project Fear, a blitz of scare-mongering, continues to this day. Now, instead of the (immediate) dire consequences of voting to leave they've simply transported the apocalypse to No Deal (which is actually just a euphemism/excuse for not leaving). The closer the "threat" of Brexit looms the more of it we get. Recently, a veritable avalanche.

Your posts and Lordo's/Kikapu's are sometimes typical examples of the technique. For instance, a simple one sentence response from yourself to a post by Paphitis, stating that UK GDP would drop by 20% in year one of no deal. That's obviously ludicrous but par for the course and might be accepted at face value by some. It's a basic Goebbel's technique. Tell a big lie often enough and.....................

Whilst not directly related, the assertion that the Cypriot economy crashed by 40% in 2013 was obviously equally wrong. In fact, the loss of GDP was closer to 5%. That, in pretty disastrous times for the country.

The bottom line is that many remainers can't wean themselves off Project Fear. It was all lies then and many believe it's exactly the same again now. Crying Wolf. Where's the remain credibility after the referendum campaign fiasco?

I imagine it's a great concern for the mouth-foaming remainer type that if, instead of the oft-promoted end-of-the-world, actually not much at all happens. In here there would I'm sure be pages of their past Armageddon quote posts. A rod made for the back.


****** An interesting feature of the referendum campaign and since has been an absence of much in the way of promoting the benefits of EU membership. The vast majority has been about the horrendous consequences of leaving. Cameron knew trying to sell the EU to the UK electorate would be a disastrous strategy (not that the other one wasn't! )

[Londonrake]

.

[cyprusgrump]

Pyro.

Thanks for taking the time to respond.

One of the features of this situation, since day one, has been the use of propaganda (aka lies) to promote each side of the cause. Whilst I've lost count of the likes of the NHS bus being trawled over, the blatant lies the "establishment" told ********* in the referendum campaign have been swept away though. Never to be discussed by the remain cause who, in essence, act as though it never happened. Despite that, to myself and a great many others it's fundamental.

Project Fear, a blitz of scare-mongering, continues to this day. Now, instead of the (immediate) dire consequences of voting to leave they've simply transported the apocalypse to No Deal (which is actually just a euphemism/excuse for not leaving). The closer the "threat" of Brexit looms the more of it we get. Recently, a veritable avalanche.

Your posts and Lordo's/Kikapu's are sometimes typical examples of the technique. For instance, a simple one sentence response from yourself to a post by Paphitis, stating that UK GDP would drop by 20% in year one of no deal. That's obviously ludicrous but par for the course and might be accepted at face value by some. It's a basic Goebbel's technique. Tell a big lie often enough and.....................

Whilst not directly related, the assertion that the Cypriot economy crashed by 40% in 2013 was obviously equally wrong. In fact, the loss of GDP was closer to 5%. That, in pretty disastrous times for the country.

The bottom line is that many remainers can't wean themselves off Project Fear. It was all lies then and many believe it's exactly the same again now. Crying Wolf. Where's the remain credibility after the referendum campaign fiasco?

I imagine it's a great concern for the mouth-foaming remainer type that if, instead of the oft-promoted end-of-the-world, actually not much at all happens. In here there would I'm sure be pages of their past Armageddon quote posts. A rod made for the back.


****** An interesting feature of the referendum campaign and since has been an absence of much in the way of promoting the benefits of EU membership. The vast majority has been about the horrendous consequences of leaving. Cameron knew trying to sell the EU to the UK electorate would be a disastrous strategy (not that the other one wasn't! )

Good post!

I'm sure all of us on here are old enough to remember 'disasters' from the past, three day week, ERM fiasco, numerous 'crashes' and recessions, etc.

I remember 'negative equity' in a house I'd just maxed-out on a mortgage for in 1990 or so...?

At the time it seems like the end of the world and the media always hype-up the bad side of everything - good news doesn't sell newspapers!

But in the end, we get through it and continue on bigger and better... It was always thus and Brexit will be the same...

[Pyrpolizer]

What it proves is that you had a major meltdown. A 45% collapse from 2008 is an unprecedented collapse comparable only to Iceland, Argentina, Zimbabwe and maybe some other African tinpots. You are a member of the EU and according to your link to had a 40% drop from 2008 till 2015.

Are you kidding. You couldn't even write about it. This is a calamity. This is a disaster. And it all happened under the ECB's watch.

But you said it was your fault.

OK then, but again I ask you what about Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland. they had a big fall as well. Not as big as Greece and Cyprus but their GDP did still reduce by significant amounts.

Eat your heart out Zimbabwe.

Once again, I wouldn't worry about any KPMG predictions. They have interests for Britain to stay in the EU.

If there is a trade deal there will be no reduction at all for anyone and therefore no GDP drop attributable to Brexit. And this is what is most likely to occur because the Germans are not exactly going to kiss many tens of thousands of manufacturing jobs good bye which will also potentially slide them into deep recession.

Britain is not Cyprus or Greece. It has many friends and it produces a lot within its economy. Tgheir economy is broad and they will trade their way out of anything over the next 5 to 10 years.

You just proved once again you are just a "kistimeno" little child who in the absence of any arguments starts hitting below the belt, reverting to his favorite target, Cyprus. Fyi, he have doubled our GDP from 2000 to 2008 and whereas from 2004 (when we joined the EU) to 2008 we had an equal 45% increase to what we lost from 2008 to 2015. Big booms big recessions nothing unusual. We ended up in 2016 at a bit higher level than in 2004 which is quite normal.

I have already replied to you about Spain Italy Portugal etc. but it seems you didn't understand one iota. Go on try to drag me to endless discussions on those....

Back to Brexit now: You have to read KPMG's full report. Even with a deal there will be a GDP drop both in the shortrun and the long run. But it will be about half the drop of Brexit with no deal.
The point however is not the GDP drop alone. It's the GDP drop + the devaluation of the currency + higher prices of imported products that might end up making the British people poorer by as much as 5-10% in just one year.

[Lordo]

yes we did when we were in the eu. once outside you will feel like one of those poor people who sleep rough in london.

no deal exit with wto means anything from 5% to 40 % tax in all our trade both there and back. you actually believe you can recover from that
how exactly?
whats the plan?
how long does it take to implement?
how many trade deal negotiators does the uk have?
last i looked it was about 100.
to look at 4500 product groups and in each one upto 3000 products. good luck with that.

Russia becomes WTO member after 18 years of talks. Russia has finally joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) at a ceremony in Switzerland on Friday, after 18 years negotiating its membership. The Swiss brokered a deal between Russia and Georgia earlier this year that removed the last obstacle to Russia's accession.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16212643