Cyprus-Forum.com

[Paphitis]

Nonsense!

Greece had a 20% drop in GDP. In fact it had a bigger drop in GDP. Cyprus also had a bigger drop in GDP in the EU.

Britain is neither Greece or Cyprus. Facts are facts. They are different to say the least. You know, the Anglo race responsible for Australia, Canada, and New Zealand. They were an actual empire. Perhaps the biggest empire in human history.

Actually both Cyprus and Greece had a steady rise of GDP from the time the entered the EU similar to that of Malta.
Our sudden drop was NOT because of the EU, but because of our own mistakes. Look at Malta who did no mistakes though. Rising and rising...
https://www.google.com/publicdata/explo ... l=en&dl=en

As for the British Empire, that's an old glory. The Anglo race is also a myth. Fyi the official language in the US before the independence was actually German, not English, whereas the majority of "English" settlers there were actually Irish. As for Canada remind me again of the relation between their Anglo race and French race?

I'm sorry but as EU members the drop of Greece's and Cyprus' GDP is unprecedented and only comparable to Zimbabwe and Argentina.

You had a total banking collapse that has never been seen or experienced elsewhere and it occurred under the watchful eye of the ECB which controlled every aspect of Greece's and Cyprus monetary policy. All countries actually make mistakes and there have been banking collapses in Australia and USA as well but the difference here is that the USA and Australia have their very own and independent Central Banks which can print money and bail the Banks out. You don't have this or such ability. So saying that they are at fault 100% isn't particularly fair on neither Greece nor Cyprus.

2 EU countries that bit the dust. Nt just them but Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland on life support. The EU does not have a goid record here I am sorry.

[Paphitis]

What will happen Kikapu is that sanity will always prevail because the Germans don’t want to sink further into recession and kiss their car industry good bye and the UK would like to continue to trade with EU partners and also cooperate with them as a close ally at a security level.

So what will happen is that negotiations will continue and in the meantime trade will continue under WTO Article 24.

That is what will happen.

The people of Britain have voted. The EU need to respect the referendum outcome. It is fundamental to democracy. If the EU respect democracy then they will move on.

I wouldn't call a 0.1% drop in German economy a recession. It's more of a stabilizing indicator.

Yes I call that a recession alright that can only deepen if its biggest EU trade partner is unable to trade under current free trade terms.

It won’t be dire as I am no scare merchant but 0.1% can easily turn into minus 2% with 10s of thousands of jobs down the gurgler. A German MEP said that this will occur in the event of aNo Deal Brexit when Germany condemned the Luxembourg debacle saying that the EU must ensure negotiations continue even after a no deal Brexit.

It’s a double edge sword.

As for Britain, the people have already placed their independence ahead of money. So the cost is acceptable when you have your priorities set right - Queen and Country. Patriotism! Family ahead of money at all times.

There are always casualties in the fight for freedom. In the old days that price was hundreds of thousands of troops. Today it is a few Beasley Billions.

OK let's take it for granted that Germany is going to have a 2% recession because of "losing" it's British market (which amounts to only 6.6% of their exports). How much recession would the UK have from "losing" it's EU market amounting to 56% of it's total exports?

Can you work out this simple Math problem Paphitis

Don't friggin kid yourself. 6.6% of these exports will wipe tens of thousands of jobs because 6.6% is a massive figure.

And no, Britain will not lose 56% of its trade. It will continue unaffected as it is also likely that Germany will continue to trade with the UK under current rules.

No one is going to kiss Billions away. Money always talks and the bullshit fear mongering will always walk. Capitalism always rules the roost.

But yeh, if capitalism does not prevail, Germany is looking at a potentially very big recession which will be larger than 2% I only stated 2% as a conservative figure> I am no wizard and can't predict the fallout.

[Londonrake]

‘the EU is not trying to stop the UK leaving”

To be fair, they haven’t really had to try.

I would say “at the risk of being repetitive” but we’ve had 40 months of grinding repetition wrt this subject.

Here though is the problem. Explained simply. And the reason why, when the electorate’s eventually allowed to express an opinion, all this endless verbiage will be sorted:



.

[Kikapu]

The EU have an agreed agreement with May for the UK to leave the EU. It is the UK who has refused the deal. The EU is going to look after it’s own interests and not the interests of the UK. It has been the UK who has been asking for extension to article 50 and not the EU. I think the EU will be happy for “cry baby” UK to leave the EU once and for all. If BJ takes the UK down economically with a no deal, then so be it. This cannot be blamed on the EU if it should happen that way.

[Paphitis]

‘the EU is not trying to stop the UK leaving”

To be fair, they haven’t really had to try.

I would say “at the risk of being repetitive” but we’ve had 40 months of grinding repetition wrt this subject.

Here though is the problem. Explained simply. And the reason why, when the electorate’s eventually allowed to express an opinion, all this endless verbiage will be sorted:



.

What is extremely dangerous about all this is the following.

I often ask myself what I would do. I regard myself as a politically astute and motivated individual who is engaged in my countries politics. I relish my political engagement and respect it. People laid down their lives for their right to vote.

As a republican, I respected the referendum result that maintained the Crown and I am happy with that. I mean, it's not as if Australia's political system is broken. On the contrary. It's one of the best in the world.

So what would I do if a referendum was ignored by the elites? Well, I would sincerely struggle to get out of bed to ever vote in any election or referendum ever again. That is illegal in Australia but I probably wouldn't rock up to the ballot box as a protest.

Democracy will be dealt with a very big blow.

Let the elites vote the way they want and let the rest stay in bed or watch some Netflix. Maybe go fishing or play some Footie at the park.

[Paphitis]

The EU have an agreed agreement with May for the UK to leave the EU. It is the UK who has refused the deal. The EU is going to look after it’s own interests and not the interests of the UK. It has been the UK who has been asking for extension to article 50 and not the EU. I think the EU will be happy for “cry baby” UK to leave the EU once and for all. If BJ takes the UK down economically with a no deal, then so be it. This cannot be blamed on the EU if it should happen that way.

That EU deal was not acceptable to Britain and voted down 3 times by Parliament.

Both parties need to acknowledged each other's interests and placing a wedge over sovereign British territory is an unprecedented move which is outside the EU's jurisdiction.

Since this agreement does not meet British=h interests, it is perfectly ok to have a clean break and commence negotiations from scratch whilst out of the EU.

Britain has called the EU's bluff.

The sun will still rise the next morning.

[Kikapu]

The EU have an agreed agreement with May for the UK to leave the EU. It is the UK who has refused the deal. The EU is going to look after it’s own interests and not the interests of the UK. It has been the UK who has been asking for extension to article 50 and not the EU. I think the EU will be happy for “cry baby” UK to leave the EU once and for all. If BJ takes the UK down economically with a no deal, then so be it. This cannot be blamed on the EU if it should happen that way.

That EU deal was not acceptable to Britain and voted down 3 times by Parliament.

Both parties need to acknowledged each other's interests and placing a wedge over sovereign British territory is an unprecedented move which is outside the EU's jurisdiction.

Since this agreement does not meet British=h interests, it is perfectly ok to have a clean break and commence negotiations from scratch whilst out of the EU.

Britain has called the EU's bluff.

The sun will still rise the next morning.

There is no EU bluff as there never was one. No matter if there is a deal or no deal Brexit, there is no ignoring the Good Friday agreement and the Éire and N. Ireland for trade and services, one being in the Eu and the other not.

[Paphitis]

The EU have an agreed agreement with May for the UK to leave the EU. It is the UK who has refused the deal. The EU is going to look after it’s own interests and not the interests of the UK. It has been the UK who has been asking for extension to article 50 and not the EU. I think the EU will be happy for “cry baby” UK to leave the EU once and for all. If BJ takes the UK down economically with a no deal, then so be it. This cannot be blamed on the EU if it should happen that way.

That EU deal was not acceptable to Britain and voted down 3 times by Parliament.

Both parties need to acknowledged each other's interests and placing a wedge over sovereign British territory is an unprecedented move which is outside the EU's jurisdiction.

Since this agreement does not meet British=h interests, it is perfectly ok to have a clean break and commence negotiations from scratch whilst out of the EU.

Britain has called the EU's bluff.

The sun will still rise the next morning.

There is no EU bluff as there never was one. No matter if there is a deal or no deal Brexit, there is no ignoring the Good Friday agreement and the Éire and N. Ireland for trade and services, one being in the Eu and the other not.

What gives the EU the right to dictate to the UK about the Good Friday Agreements?

I think the EU has gone far beyond its jurisdiction here and should butt out. The UK has no interest in reneging on the Good Friday Agreements.

This arrogance from the EU is an outrage.

[Londonrake]

The EU have an agreed agreement with May for the UK to leave the EU. It is the UK who has refused the deal. The EU is going to look after it’s own interests and not the interests of the UK. It has been the UK who has been asking for extension to article 50 and not the EU. I think the EU will be happy for “cry baby” UK to leave the EU once and for all. If BJ takes the UK down economically with a no deal, then so be it. This cannot be blamed on the EU if it should happen that way.

All deals or No deal will be voted down by the current parliament. It isn’t about deals. That’s just an excuse for people who simply want to stay in the EU but - for many of them - don’t have the guts to admit it. So, in essence, there’s a stalemate. Whilst having an election could of course end with yet another hung parliament it seems the only way to get MPs to finally demonstrate where they actually stand and for the voters to give their verdict. How that translates into “cry baby” beats me.

I think you make a grave error in your suggestion that the EU would be happy to be rid of the UK without an understanding. Whilst I appreciate the short/medium term consequences for Britain you’re also talking about the loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs and a severe economic impact to the EU. Principally Ireland, Italy, Germany and France. Have you seen what’s happening there economically at the moment? Do you think it’s a good time to “get rid” of the second largest economy in Europe and fifth in the world? One of their largest export markets. Clearly, it would be similarly disastrous at this nexus.

At some stage, before or after leaving, there has to be an agreement. The consequences of not reaching one would simply be too damaging for both sides.

All this has been said, over and over. Despite that, it’s a daily gloat-fest in here by cut ‘n’ paste posters who obviously don’t fully comprehend the issue.

[Pyrpolizer]

Yeah right.. the only difference is that KPMG's study was based on T. May's DEAL

No, it’s not, and it isn’t a “study”.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... on-in-2020

Do bear in mind, nobody’s impartial in these matters. Moreover, these are “predictions” (aka guesses). The reality is, absolutely nobody can see how events will unfold. It would be unknown territory. Furthermore, KPMG are a company with a vested interest in the UK staying in the EU. You’ll accept what they say - because you want to. I’m a bit more cynical.

Also, Cyprus’s GDP didn’t drop 40% in 2013 You’re just plucking these figures out of thin air. Like I said, making it up as you go along.

I am glad you noticed from the link I provided that Cyprus did not have a fall in GDP of almost 40% in 2013 alone, but almost 40% relative to the peak value of 2008 which increased to 45% by 2015. This proves that contrary to Paphitis you do read links

If you download KPMG’s document titled "uk-economic-outlook-dec-2018.pdf" under the chapter "Long term consequences of exiting the EU" they said:

Analysis of the effect of Brexit published by the London School of Economics’ Centre for Economic Performance and King’s College London shows the difference between a WTO scenario and remaining in the EU to be 8.7% in terms of GDP per capita. A milder scenario depicting a deal with the EU including no tariffs and customs, but some border friction and lower EU migration, is estimated to lower GDP per capita by 5.5% by 2030.

The total loss however is not only the drop in GDP but also the loss of growth the UK would otherwise have if it stayed in the EU.
Hence I have no problem admitting that I was wrong it would have a drop of GDP per capita of 20% in the first year, but there’s is a possibility the UK’s total loss to be that much in the long run.

The point is for how many years this 1.5% drop in GDP that KPMG predicted is going to be repeated year after year. Considering the numbers given by various analysts It looks it’s going to be repeated for 3 to 6 years after which the UK will start having a growth again. Nobody however made any prediction how much that growth is going to be.