Cyprus-Forum.com

[Londonrake]

It’s been a long 39 months and I may have transgressed but as a general rule I’ve tried to avoid any of the normal insults, including “remoaners”.

It’s a fact though that people who voted Leave have been subjected to 3 years of constant vitriolic abuse. All of which has merely had the effect of hardening opinion.

[Lordo]

you may not have but other brexshitters have. its ok cause the no-deal brexiteers never had a mandate to implement their vision and will never have it either. they can harden their views all they like. they are irrelevant. the facts speak for themselves.

why do you think manchild wanted an election on the 15 th of october. that was the final plan c (btw c stands for crap), to implement a no-deal brexit. and thats gone by the wayside.

[Kikapu]

you may not have but other brexshitters have. its ok cause the no-deal brexiteers never had a mandate to implement their vision and will never have it either. they can harden their views all they like. they are irrelevant. the facts speak for themselves.

why do you think manchild wanted an election on the 15 th of october. that was the final plan c (btw c stands for crap), to implement a no-deal brexit. and thats gone by the wayside.

That was to be the “elephant trap” Blair warned Corbyn not to fall into with BJ’s election proposal. BJ was trying to be too clever, but not clever enough.

[Lordo]

this is better than hotel california.

In October 1924, British voters went to the polls. It was an unstable time: over the previous two years, as one inconclusive election followed another, the country had got through three prime ministers. This time, however, the result was decisive: Stanley Baldwin won the biggest Conservative landslide in British history. The story will no doubt provide comfort to Boris Johnson as he seeks to win his own snap election. But a Conservative majority in 2019 is by no means guaranteed; Johnson faces many more obstacles than Baldwin.
Many observers have focused on the Lib Dems’ impact on the Labour vote. That’s a mistake
In the last few weeks, as it’s become clear that a general election is around the corner, the pollsters have gone into overdrive. UK-wide polls should always be approached with some caution. They are often incorrect, even if only slightly; on average, the final week’s polls in 2017 suggested that the Tories would win by six points (they won by 2.5 points). Each time an individual poll is published, there’s a tendency to focus on its headline figures – but you can learn more by looking at the underlying data, as well as the average of the different polls being carried out.
One of the big political stories of the year has been the resurgence of the Liberal Democrats. Since the EU elections, the party has surged in the polls, rising from an average of 9% in April to 18% in September thus far. Many observers have focused on the Lib Dems’ impact on the Labour vote. That’s a mistake: of the Lib Dems’ 19 top target seats (seats where they are behind their opponent by 20 points or less), just two are held by Labour. There are virtually no Labour/Lib Dem marginals left. Some seats that were once Lib Dem strongholds now have huge Labour majorities: in Bristol West, for instance, the Lib Dems’ share of the vote fell from 48% in 2010 to just 7% in 2017.
Instead, the Lib Dems pose a bigger threat to the Tories. Thirteen of their top target seats are currently held by Conservative MPs. This creates a major obstacle to the Tories’ chances of winning a majority. The Tories were only able to get one in 2015 by gaining dozens of seats from their former coalition partners. Four years later, the Lib Dems remain their main opponents in dozens and dozens of constituencies.
Those aren’t the only seats that will be fiercely contested. One under-reported aspect of the 2017 election was that it transformed the electoral landscape for any future election, leaving the outcome even more uncertain. In the 2015 election, just 56 seats out of 650 had a majority of less than five points; since the 2017 election, there are now 96 such seats. As a result, small swings in the popular vote can have a massive impact.
An average of polls thus far in September shows the
Conservatives on 33% (-11 points since 2017),
Labour on 26% (-15),
the Lib Dems on 18% (+10),
the Brexit party on 12% (+12),
the Greens on 5% (+3) and
the SNP on 4% (+1).

On a “universal” swing (ie Labour losing 15 points in each seat,
the Tories losing 11 points in each seat, etc),
the Conservatives would win 315 seats (-2),
Labour 228 (-34), the SNP 50 (+15),
the Lib Dems 32 (+20), Plaid Cymru four (-),
the Brexit party one (+1) and
the Green party one (-).
But if the poll average changes by a mere three points, say, giving the
Tories 30% to
Labour’s 29%,
then the Tories would win only 284 seats to Labour’s 260.

With so many highly marginal seats, a few percentage points could make all the difference in the world. This goes both ways, of course. Forty Conservative seats have a majority of less than 5%, but so do 30 Labour seats. The Tories may well lose dozens of seats to the Lib Dems and SNP, but pro-leave Labour seats in the north of England and the Midlands can provide them with an alternative pathway to a majority government.
And as we have seen before, polls can change very rapidly. Between April 2017 and election day itself, Labour’s vote share rose from a poll average of 27% to a final result of 41% (+14). Equally, the Conservatives went from averaging 32% in February 2015 to winning 38% on the day of the 2015 election.
This time, of course, so much hinges on Brexit. The election will almost certainly be held after 31 October. Many things could happen between now and then: Johnson could successfully pass a new Brexit deal, he could ask the EU for an extension, or Corbyn could even be installed as the PM of a caretaker government. All of these outcomes could potentially transform the electoral landscape.
As recently as June, the Conservatives were averaging 21% in polls, with the Brexit party ahead of them on 22%; Boris Johnson’s promise to deliver Brexit changed this. In September thus far, the Tories are on 33%, and the Brexit party is on 12%. If Johnson does not take the UK out of the EU, he will not only find it difficult to win a majority; he will struggle to get enough seats to form any kind of government.

[Lordo]

you may not have but other brexshitters have. its ok cause the no-deal brexiteers never had a mandate to implement their vision and will never have it either. they can harden their views all they like. they are irrelevant. the facts speak for themselves.

why do you think manchild wanted an election on the 15 th of october. that was the final plan c (btw c stands for crap), to implement a no-deal brexit. and thats gone by the wayside.

That was to be the “elephant trap” Blair warned Corbyn not to fall into with BJ’s election proposal. BJ was trying to be too clever, but not clever enough.

blair was correct in warning corbyn about the elephant trap but he did not explain why, i seem to remeber he did not believe corbyn can win. it was corbyn legal team that warned him that if he accepts manchilds proposal to have an election on the 15th of october, there was nothing anybody could do about the date being changed to 1st of november before it reached the queen. that is the reason why corbyn will not accept the offer. just as soon as the leaving date is changed to 31st of january if manchild does not call for an election the final move for check mating manchild will begin by holding a no-confidence motion and castling him by election who ever will call for an election of the oppostion's choosing and the date they wish to have it at. and of course all this will happen after it has been shown beyond doubt manchild cannot get any deal never mind one better than when we are in the eu.

checkmate don't you think? the king of the world is dead, long live king corbyn.

[Lordo]

did somebody say music? or was it me?

[Lordo]

ironically at the end of the song when the two lead guitars are plaing lead atthe same time emulates exactly how soft brexiteers are working in tune with the remainers to stop no-deal brexit and they have th emandate to do it and wil aslo have the mandate after the election too. i mean to be so close to the sweets and not be able to taste them is cruel i realise but sometimes you have to be cruel to be kind right?

[Lordo]

what is manchild upto?
there he was promissing to take control of the borders to reduce the immigration and here he is relaxing immigration policies and delivering liberal policies on spending. i mean what, the next thing they wil be telling us that the wolf was a lamb all along.
can anybody explain this?
how will the people who voted to take control be happy about this. now bafidi will understand this one because they for once refer to australia even though it is not in a nice way but hey any mention good or bad is good right.


https://www.facebook.com/Channel4News/videos/525717954849853/

[Lordo]

let me tell a s-tory

[Lordo]

reality

https://www.facebook.com/ITVWestcountry/videos/893743067648287/