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[Paphitis]

In fact I am still putting Boris in pole position.

He has quite a few options. First, he can delay Royal Ascent, but let's say he fails that, he can call a vote of 'no confidence' before Royal Ascent. This vote of "no confidence" is a tactical ploy and will be against his own Government.

This means that Parliament goes into recess for 14 days in order to see if another party will be able to gain the confidence of Parliament. In which case Parliament is pro-rogued and there is a snap poll on the 14th of October.

BoJo thus guarantees 2 things:
1) BREXIT on Halloween which he has no choice to deliver as he promised this to the people,
2) a snap election.

Now, there is the possibility that BoJo could get arrested. Which is very fine because the Tories will continue to campaign with BoJo as the Martyr under the eloquent Moggsy and go into coalition with BREXIT Party. They could attract approximately 50% of the vote between them.

Labor will bomb out but the Lib Democrats will achieve some success and become the main opposition party in Parliament.

There is a 50% chance the Tories and Brexit Party will win a majority and 99% chance they will come remarkably close (within 10 seats) and fall over the line with a few rogue Labor MPs who hate Corbyn.

Either way,I am tipping that BREXIT is still going to occur as BoJo would rather die in a ditch than ask the EU for an extension. I feel his vibe on that one. I would rather die myself than surrender.

He could also make some legal challenges of his own claiming that Parliament have tied his hands and therefore betrayed the National Interest as Britain has a compromised negotiating position with the EU.

The other thing BoJo can do is bribe one of the small EU countries like Malta to veto Britain's extension request which means BoJo will request an extension knowing that one of his EU partners will give Britain a get out of jail free card by vetoing Britain's arse out of the EU.

There are going to be many twists and turns here.

[Pyrpolizer]

Who was it that said

Yeh thanks Pyro, but I'm not putting my degrees up on a forum. That is just a totally ludicrous and vane thing to do.I did think about it for about 2 minutes, but there is no point at all.

I am not going to post my Part 161 ATPL either. Or my Operator proficiency Instrument rating. It's just a dangerous thing to do especially when you are getting vetted by Homeland for airside access.

Did he really say that to me?? Looks I missed it
I NEVER asked him to show us his degrees...

[Paphitis]

Who was it that said

Yeh thanks Pyro, but I'm not putting my degrees up on a forum. That is just a totally ludicrous and vane thing to do.I did think about it for about 2 minutes, but there is no point at all.

I am not going to post my Part 161 ATPL either. Or my Operator proficiency Instrument rating. It's just a dangerous thing to do especially when you are getting vetted by Homeland for airside access.

Did he really say that to me?? Looks I missed it
I NEVER asked him to show us his degrees...

I never said you did although you did tell me how to blot out private details in jpg format.

This is irrelevant to the topic so I ask you to stop bringing this topic back onto the subject of my degrees and my qualifications. It really isn't fair at all, and it is an incredible violation against my privacy and security.

I am an individual who gets vetted by all kinds of Government Organizations to the point of being fingerprinted and I am not talking about just the police. So drop it, as the stakes are high.

You people need to leave what is private as being private.

Now, I don't think I am at risk, but how do I know? I don't know how these things work, but the Government that has taken my fingerprints can get very creative and they share information as well.

people should not know what degrees I hold or what licenses I hold. This is what I use to raise a family.

Back onto BREXIT please.

[erolz66]

Does anyone of know where to find the exact text of the bill?

Erol from what I was able to find so far, it seems the bill says that by 15 Oct BOJO is obliged to send that letter for an extension to the EU.
The reason is because there will be a leaders council on the 17th and they have to approve the extension unanimously. BOJO should presumably be there at the 17th but imo he won't attend
So the problem really starts from the 15th. If BOJO refuses to send the letter asking for an extension, he will have to resign on the 14th to avoid been charged for treason.I am not familiar with the British system to tell what would happen next, but imo the authority to write that letter will have to pass to the British office in Brussels on the 15th or 16th. Who will authorize them to do so in the absence of a PM? Any ideas? Is it possible for the parliament to authorize them in advance?

As I currently understand / see things.

The bill places a deadline of the 19th October for Johnson to send the letter asking for an extension, unless he has either passed a withdrawal agreement bill or found a majority in parliament that supports a no deal exit. If Johnson refuses to obey the law of the land at this point then all sorts of legal actions can and no doubt will be launched but so also I think will a vote of no confidence be launched. Johnson may try and block this but if he does then all his taunts of 'chicken' aimed at Corbyn will come back to haunt him badly and he will almost certainly loose such a vote in any case, given his current majority even with the dup is something like negative 23. If the no confidence vote is won then Parliament will have between the 19th and 31st of October to back a Labour led temporary government or face a no deal exit by default on the 31st (assuming the courts or someone else has not already forced the sending of the letter requesting an extension to the EU). Labour if they can get the necessary majority support, will take control of government and send the letter. I think they will then try and succeed to pass a withdrawal agreement bill (as the kinnock amendment requires them to try and do) and then they will call call for a general election under the fixed term parliament act, having first taken the UK out of the EU in every legal sense. They will go in to the next GE as the party that delivered the referendum result in weeks that the tories failed to do in 3.5 years. The Brexit party will have nothing to stand on other than 'we have not left the EU enough'. The Tories will have nothing to stand on other than 'we have not left the Eu enough'.

[Pyrpolizer]

It has almost put my in my grave at a very young age when I was barely an adult. In fact the odds were so much against me, I really should not be alive today. i cheated death. I nearly paid a very big price for this career. The ultimate price. In fact I had given up and was just preparing for the end. You know, resigned to die. When you close your eyes just waiting for your last seconds. It was my fault really. I can't deny that. I was young, green and invincible and I took on nature and from that day onwards I realized I was no match. When I landed, I broke down into tears like a little child. I broke every fundamental rule and went where I should not have gone.

Good to learn that you too did stupid things in your life out of ignorance.
But I won't go as far to call you an utter stupid like you did on me....

[Paphitis]

That is pre-suming the Bill achieves Royal Ascent.

There are a number of things BoJo can do to prevent that from occurring.

He can move a motion of "No Confidence" against his own Government. He can ask the Queen to delay (which may or may not occur).

And even if Royal Ascent does occur, he can still go Nuclear and ignore the Bill. There will be turmoil yes, and perhaps a lot of legal action and he may land himself in legal trouble. But then he just becomes a Martyr.

Meanwhile, there is a GE and the people will vote on a single issue BREXIT.

The wild card is the BREXIT Party.

[erolz66]

Either way,I am tipping that BREXIT is still going to occur .....

Yes it is and it is going to be Labour that deliver it, which is what is going to wipe out the Tories and the Brexit party in one fell swoop. If Corbyn was an effective campaigner in the 2017 election campaign against TM, defying all the polls and predictions, then just wait and see what he will be able to do going in to the next one against Johnson having himself delivered Brexit.

[Paphitis]

It has almost put my in my grave at a very young age when I was barely an adult. In fact the odds were so much against me, I really should not be alive today. i cheated death. I nearly paid a very big price for this career. The ultimate price. In fact I had given up and was just preparing for the end. You know, resigned to die. When you close your eyes just waiting for your last seconds. It was my fault really. I can't deny that. I was young, green and invincible and I took on nature and from that day onwards I realized I was no match. When I landed, I broke down into tears like a little child. I broke every fundamental rule and went where I should not have gone.

Good to learn that you too did stupid things in your life out of ignorance.
But I won't go as far to call you an utter stupid like you did on me....

Everyone does stupid things.

That's not stupidity at all. Every pilot I know has had some kind of emergency or major drama they had to deal with, or a major incident. And those that haven't are going to.

It's how you handle it that matters and what you learn from it.

I was 21 years of age and was cut loose on a powerful Basic Trainer. Man, use to fly under the cliff edge of the Great Australian Bight as campers at lookouts would look down to us and we were barely 30m from the crashing rocks doing 600 km/hr. Young dumb and full of cum but that's how we were molded as well.

[Paphitis]

Either way,I am tipping that BREXIT is still going to occur .....

Yes it is and it is going to be Labour that deliver it, which is what is going to wipe out the Tories and the Brexit party in one fell swoop. If Corbyn was an effective campaigner in the 2017 election campaign against TM, defying all the polls and predictions, then just wait and see what he will be able to do going in to the next one against Johnson having himself delivered Brexit.

Labor isn't going to deliver any BREXIT.

They will not be in Government.In-fact, they are in deep trouble.

About 40% of their voters are Brexiteers.

And those Brexiteers will not accept a backstop.

[erolz66]

That is pre-suming the Bill achieves Royal Ascent.

Royal Ascent is a formality. If Johnson personally will not present it to the Queen for her 'ascent' then someone else will and if Johnson tries to stop such then the massive damage he has already inflicted on the Tory party will just increase even more.

He can move a motion of "No Confidence" against his own Government.

He can but could he win such a vote even if he were to call it ? His track record to date of winning votes in the commons would suggest he can not.

And even if Royal Ascent does occur, he can still go Nuclear and ignore the Bill. There will be turmoil yes, and perhaps a lot of legal action and he may land himself in legal trouble. But then he just becomes a Martyr.

Meanwhile, there is a GE and the people will vote on a single issue BREXIT.

If he ignores the law of the land then what GE ? Ignoring the law of the land does not in itself lead to a GE.

The wild card is the BREXIT Party.

Once a withdrawal agreement bill is passed under a temporary Labour government, the Brexit party have nothing left other than to try vent their fury and anger on the Tory party in the next GE.