Paphitis wrote:Pyrpolizer wrote:Paphitis wrote:
My point is, no one had a friggin clue what was to befall Greece and Cyprus or about the banking Collapse years ahead of time.
To say that anyone had any inkling of what was going to happen is just 100% utter deluded stupidity. No ne can ever predict the markets with 100% certainty and accuracy or calculate what the GDP will be worth in 15 years time.
that's the point!
I already told you that with missing data you cannot predict anything. Going around in circles is just a waste of time.
I already gave you a link to UK Govnt study titled "EU Exit Long-term economic analysis" that goes as deep as 2036
This study below goes upto 2050.
https://www.eiu.com/public/topical_repo ... tingTo2050This study by Deloit goes upto 2024.
https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insight ... lysis.htmlStill not convinced that you know nothing about this science?
Your problem not mine.
There is no data in the world that gives anyone the ability to accurately predict ANYTHING with regard to the financial markets that far out.They predict over the coming months, and weeks maybe but they qualify their predictions. I never met anyone that is able to predict things 15 years out. If they can do such a thing, then gee, they truly have a gift that will make them a lot of money.
They are guessing and their guesswork is based on quite a number of assumptions.
This isn't a science I am sorry to say. It's finance and economics yes, but that is not the same thing as science such as Physics, Chemistry, or things I know very well like Aerodynamics and meteorology. These are sciences with scientific rules and formula and modelling such as what you will find in Physics, Aerodynamics (Bernoullis Theorem) and Meteorology.
One of these sciences does have an element of guesswork but not that much which is why they get things right 80 to 90% of the time, with the aid of their modelling data, sensors, and technology (like satellites), but they too make assumptions on the models and often enough get it wrong. I am of course referring to meteorology which is a fascinating science that interests me a lot.
Economics and Finance involves a lot more guesswork. I have never met an economist or a Banker who can look you in the eye and tell you what will happen over the course of the year. I do have dealings with banks and relationship manager's and I also consult with a Stock Broker in a major firm that I work with. I get recommendations from him as I am a client because I pay a fee to him. He tells me what should happen, get's it right often but they have never been able to say to me that the market is going to go up 100%. The markets are risky and I don't pretend to be an expert on the markets or a financial expert or an economist(and I doubt you are as well considering all the nonsense you were spouting about the Stock Markets a few months ago), which is why I value this guy's expert summations to reduce (that is all you can do and this is the operative word here as there are never any guarantees here) my risk and which is also why the bulk of my exposures to the markets are done through my Superannuation Fund, with expert high flyer traders who are obviously paid in order to get the best outcome for my fund which I buy into. They get paid bonuses too if they have a good year, but I have seen them get it wrong. It's not a science where if you follow certain rules you are guaranteed because if that was the case we should all be very rich.
They are unable to predict the nation's GDP and a lot of their guesswork is based on historical data and they will tell you that. Predicting what will happen 15 years out is laughable. And yes, Greece and Cyprus were oblivious which is why everyone was borrowing money, Banks were taking Billions worth of deposits and liabilities and buying Billions in bonds to offload their liabilities. If they didn't buy the bonds and derivatives, they would go bust as well, but little did they know that one day their Bonds would become junk. The rest is history. Greek bonds were not always in JUNK status and not even the EU or ECB predicted they would as there were many Western European Banks (French and German) that were holding Greek Bonds. They didn't know either and they lost Billions.
They have NEVER called themselves scientists I am sorry.
