Cyprus-Forum.com

[Kikapu]

It is very clear Trump is coaching BJ how to handle Brexit.

I personally think what does or does not happen in the UK re Brexit and how it happens will have a significant impact on if Trump does or does not secure a 2nd term. I think if we can in the UK regain a semblance of 'political sanity' for want of a better phrase, move away from demagoguery and sound bite populist politics, where truth and reason still have some meaning and relevance, then this will make Trump's chances of re election much lower. If we can not then the chances of Trump re election will be higher. Basically I see some hope in the idea that the wheels may be coming off the 'politics by demagoguery' bus here in the UK and think that, if it is indeed what is happening, will have ramifications far wider than just the UK's shores.

I share your hopes, Erol, but I am afraid Trump will secure 2nd term regardless how Brexit plays out in the UK. Trump’s advantage winning the 2nd term comes from the fact that he was an “open book” during his 1st term, sexist, racist, adulterous, liar, tax evasion, bad business practices and on and on and on. Since his election the list has grown on his negativity which would be enough to destroy any candidate running for the US presidency, but Trump’s core supporters are still with him to win the 2nd term.

The fact that opposition do not really have a good candidate to truly challenge him, Trump will win hands down. Unfortunately many politicians around the world are copying Trump’s style of campaigning for office with some success. The moral bar of the presidency office has been lowered in the USA, even lower than when JFK , Clinton and Bush (son) were in office, but at least they ran dignified campaigns to be elected. Trump has broken that mold and I am not sure it can ever go back to the way it use to be again.

[Lordo]

It is very clear Trump is coaching BJ how to handle Brexit.

I personally think what does or does not happen in the UK re Brexit and how it happens will have a significant impact on if Trump does or does not secure a 2nd term. I think if we can in the UK regain a semblance of 'political sanity' for want of a better phrase, move away from demagoguery and sound bite populist politics, where truth and reason still have some meaning and relevance, then this will make Trump's chances of re election much lower. If we can not then the chances of Trump re election will be higher. Basically I see some hope in the idea that the wheels may be coming off the 'politics by demagoguery' bus here in the UK and think that, if it is indeed what is happening, will have ramifications far wider than just the UK's shores.

I share your hopes, Erol, but I am afraid Trump will secure 2nd term regardless how Brexit plays out in the UK. Trump’s advantage winning the 2nd term comes from the fact that he was an “open book” during his 1st term, sexist, racist, adulterous, liar, tax evasion, bad business practices and on and on and on. Since his election the list has grown on his negativity which would be enough to destroy any candidate running for the US presidency, but Trump’s core supporters are still with him to win the 2nd term.

The fact that opposition do not really have a good candidate to truly challenge him, Trump will win hands down. Unfortunately many politicians around the world are copying Trump’s style of campaigning for office with some success. The moral bar of the presidency office has been lowered in the USA, even lower than when JFK , Clinton and Bush (son) were in office, but at least they ran dignified campaigns to be elected. Trump has broken that mold and I am not sure it can ever go back to the way it use to be again.

he promissed a lot of white folk in the coal producing areas as the coal mines were closing down. and he used the closing of the mines to win the election. has he done anything for these people, have they been able to get jobs? i suspect not. what would be really appropriate for him to win the overall vote and to lose the election. Now that would be natural justice. and if the people he coned last time to give him their vote wake up, he will not win. but of course he has a talent to appeal to the idiots and convince them that he is on their side. like hell he is.

[Pyrpolizer]

Page 8.

Let me make your life easier. Here's what the document says on page 8.
Now be a good boy and show me the particular line in that brochure saying the UK will be completely out of the Single market.

Voting to leave the EU would create years of uncertainty and potential economic disruption. This would reduce investment and cost jobs.
The Government judges it could result in 10 years or more of uncertainty as the UK unpicks our relationship with the EU and renegotiates new arrangements with the EU and over 50 other countries around the world.
Some argue that we could strike a good deal quickly with the EU because they want to keep access to our market.
But the Government’s judgement is that it would be much harder than that – less than 8% of EU exports come to the UK while 44% of UK exports go to the EU.
No other country has managed to secure significant access to the Single Market, without having to:
• follow EU rules over which they have no real say
• pay into the EU
• accept EU citizens living and working in their country
A more limited trade deal with the EU would give the UK less access to the Single Market than we have now – including for services, which make up almost 80% of the UK economy. For example, Canada’s deal with the EU will give limited access for services, it has so far been seven years in the making and is still not in force.

It was a binary vote, it was the only realistic way it could be decided.

I disagree. The only realistic way to get the people’s command would be to ask "Do you want to invoke article 50, yes or no". There should also be a clear note on the voting slip that if the yes wins, a 2nd referendum would follow according to the results of the negotiations including the option to revoke article 50. There can be binary referenda where the voter would need to answer more than one questions -example given earlier.

Your hard Brexshitters dream to get the UK out with no deal was actually put aside by the minute T.May started negotiations with the EU. It ended today with the House of Lords decision.
Now you may get out in the streets Brexitmoaning about fascism of your own political system.

[Kikapu]

It is very clear Trump is coaching BJ how to handle Brexit.

I personally think what does or does not happen in the UK re Brexit and how it happens will have a significant impact on if Trump does or does not secure a 2nd term. I think if we can in the UK regain a semblance of 'political sanity' for want of a better phrase, move away from demagoguery and sound bite populist politics, where truth and reason still have some meaning and relevance, then this will make Trump's chances of re election much lower. If we can not then the chances of Trump re election will be higher. Basically I see some hope in the idea that the wheels may be coming off the 'politics by demagoguery' bus here in the UK and think that, if it is indeed what is happening, will have ramifications far wider than just the UK's shores.

I share your hopes, Erol, but I am afraid Trump will secure 2nd term regardless how Brexit plays out in the UK. Trump’s advantage winning the 2nd term comes from the fact that he was an “open book” during his 1st term, sexist, racist, adulterous, liar, tax evasion, bad business practices and on and on and on. Since his election the list has grown on his negativity which would be enough to destroy any candidate running for the US presidency, but Trump’s core supporters are still with him to win the 2nd term.

The fact that opposition do not really have a good candidate to truly challenge him, Trump will win hands down. Unfortunately many politicians around the world are copying Trump’s style of campaigning for office with some success. The moral bar of the presidency office has been lowered in the USA, even lower than when JFK , Clinton and Bush (son) were in office, but at least they ran dignified campaigns to be elected. Trump has broken that mold and I am not sure it can ever go back to the way it use to be again.

he promissed a lot of white folk in the coal producing areas as the coal mines were closing down. and he used the closing of the mines to win the election. has he done anything for these people, have they been able to get jobs? i suspect not. what would be really appropriate for him to win the overall vote and to lose the election. Now that would be natural justice. and if the people he coned last time to give him their vote wake up, he will not win. but of course he has a talent to appeal to the idiots and convince them that he is on their side. like hell he is.

It is extremely very difficult for a sitting president to lose a 2nd term election. Even Nixon won 2nd term election. Granted, he didn’t start lying that he wasn’t a crook until after the 2nd term election.

Trump was bragging about grabbing women’s pussies in the first election and he won, so I don’t know what would make him lose second term presidency.

[erolz66]

Weird sterling drop just as markets close for weekend ?

sterling.JPG

No obvious reason for it I can see atm ? Anyone got any ideas ?

Hmm looks more like a weird euro gain actually.

[Paphitis]

So buckethead, are we coming out on October 31st ? You needn't tire your . Only brain cell answering, just say NO !!

Oh I do hope so!

Dianne Abbot hasn't sung yet so there is still a chance... In fact I think there could be many twists and turns before October 31st...

It is certainly a fascinating time to be interested in politics! I think a wider public is taking an interest in what is going on too - it could have interesting consequences for the future of politics in the UK...

I think BOJO has 2 options.

He must try and have a General Election on 15th of October. If he doesn't manage that I hope he ignores Parliament and crashes out on the 31st of October. He does have the power to ignore the vote, however it will create a shitstorm in Parliament and a constitutional crisis which will result in quick dissolution and a general Election.
\
Since he crashed out on WTO, it clears the slate and he will be able to go into coalition with BREXIT Party who can campaign on the single issue of BREXIT to validate the BREXIT and crashing out.

this is a big test for BOJO.

[Paphitis]

The truth is, everyone misrepresented what brexit was going to be all about before the referendum and the truth is, we still don't know what brexit will be like, however, everyone is now acting in their own version of what brexit is going to be like and they are either trying to prevent it or make it happen by using every tool available to them, politically and legally. Only if everyone were more truthful in the begining, we may not be where we are today.

it is normal for government to work out consequences of a vote in a referendum to analyse and publish their findings before a vote takes place. this was not done before the vote. we had cameron who caused havoc in the country by implementing austerity on the people call for a no vote. and of course people would oppose him to show him their displeasure. why he did not join the brexiteers i wil never understand.
becasue there was no analysis done the brexiters calimed things like
1. we will take control - total bull as we know since the referendum the migration from eastern europe halved and yet the migration into uk has gone down. this says everything you need to know about migration

2. they claimed that making a deal would be very easy as well as it will be a better deal than when we were in - no need to explain this one

3. they claimed 350 million a week saving -well this was bull to it is more like 180 million a week and this figure ignores not millions but billions we save in the tax free trade

4. they calimed the problems were jobs and housing and hospital delays and such were becasue migrants - bull the problems were the cuts we suffered since 2010

5. they calimed migrants came here in got infront of the que for housing -absolute bull local authorities have their criteria on who and how to house people and your passport is not included in the decision making only your legality of being in the country

6. they ignored the good friday agreement and how if we bresited they stay part of republic

7. they ignored the fact that we can trade with anybody in the world using the eu wto schedules which we will lose as soon as we leave without a deal

8.they go on about how our unemployment rate is the lowest - yet another bull - they calculate the figures and include people who are on zero hour contracts as employed which is about 800k

9. they go on about how our economy being 6th strongest economy in the world but ignore the fact that half of that trade is with the eu and worse still they say it is worse for the eu despite the fact that we are only 18% of their trade.

10 worse still they specify the warnings remainers gave as being information for the public when they voted when they simply labeled all the warnings as project fear.

so no not everybody propogated lies.

they are still oblivious to the fact that if we leave on 1 november we will not even be able to use wto rules as all the scedules have to be re-applied for and all 164 members will have a say as to whether they accept and all 164 can object and already the proposals made to have been objected by usa brazil and new zealand and the rest have not even made any comments yet. it is not easy to look at proposals of 4500 product groups where each product group may have over a thousand product each.

they seem to make up things as they go along. they claimed the other day that they can just charge zero tarriffs for imports. well this ignores that the other countries will not recipricate becasue the whole point of applying tarriffs is to protects ones own industries.so while everybody else is protecting their industires we have allowed ours to be decimated.

so no i do not agree with your analysis that everybody lied.

and finally regarding the election date. can you imagine the balls on the son of the bithc who is trying to get an election before his visit to the eu on the 17th so he can continue with his myths. hell will freeze over. let him not obey parliment vote and not ask for an extension. his people voted him in because he claimed not getting a deal is a million to one. so lets see him go in 17th of october and get a deal. and of course when i say a deal i mean just to remove the backstop. how difficlut can it be. after all he says he already has the alternative arrangements and they can work in a very short time. if that is the case why does he need to remove the backstop the alternative arrangement will mean they are never going to be implemented.

i put my money with on
1- manchild coming back empty handed and being removed
2 - no confidence vote and repaled by corbyn.
3 - applying for an expention for about 6 months so we can have an election in early december, followed by a labour brexit deal followed by a confirmation vote to say people want it

problem solved. actually problem is already solved because at least may had a chance to get some laws through, he has none.

I did not say everyone lied. I said everyone misrepresented what they thought Brexit was going to be all about, because no one really knew and we still do not know. There is a difference.

Other than the above, the rest of your points are valid.

I believe Cameron was a closet Brexiteer.

Cameron was a staunch ramainer, as was Theresa May.

They didn't want BREXIT one iota and both voted to remain. Both campaigned to remain also.

Theresa hoever didn't cross the floor. Cameron would have crossed the floor if he was there.

[Paphitis]

My point is, no one had a friggin clue what was to befall Greece and Cyprus or about the banking Collapse years ahead of time.

To say that anyone had any inkling of what was going to happen is just 100% utter deluded stupidity. No ne can ever predict the markets with 100% certainty and accuracy or calculate what the GDP will be worth in 15 years time.

that's the point!

I already told you that with missing data you cannot predict anything. Going around in circles is just a waste of time.

I already gave you a link to UK Govnt study titled "EU Exit Long-term economic analysis" that goes as deep as 2036
This study below goes upto 2050.
https://www.eiu.com/public/topical_repo ... tingTo2050
This study by Deloit goes upto 2024.
https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insight ... lysis.html

Still not convinced that you know nothing about this science?
Your problem not mine.

There is no data in the world that gives anyone the ability to accurately predict ANYTHING with regard to the financial markets that far out.They predict over the coming months, and weeks maybe but they qualify their predictions. I never met anyone that is able to predict things 15 years out. If they can do such a thing, then gee, they truly have a gift that will make them a lot of money.

They are guessing and their guesswork is based on quite a number of assumptions.

This isn't a science I am sorry to say. It's finance and economics yes, but that is not the same thing as science such as Physics, Chemistry, or things I know very well like Aerodynamics and meteorology. These are sciences with scientific rules and formula and modelling such as what you will find in Physics, Aerodynamics (Bernoullis Theorem) and Meteorology.

One of these sciences does have an element of guesswork but not that much which is why they get things right 80 to 90% of the time, with the aid of their modelling data, sensors, and technology (like satellites), but they too make assumptions on the models and often enough get it wrong. I am of course referring to meteorology which is a fascinating science that interests me a lot.

Economics and Finance involves a lot more guesswork. I have never met an economist or a Banker who can look you in the eye and tell you what will happen over the course of the year. I do have dealings with banks and relationship manager's and I also consult with a Stock Broker in a major firm that I work with. I get recommendations from him as I am a client because I pay a fee to him. He tells me what should happen, get's it right often but they have never been able to say to me that the market is going to go up 100%. The markets are risky and I don't pretend to be an expert on the markets or a financial expert or an economist(and I doubt you are as well considering all the nonsense you were spouting about the Stock Markets a few months ago), which is why I value this guy's expert summations to reduce (that is all you can do and this is the operative word here as there are never any guarantees here) my risk and which is also why the bulk of my exposures to the markets are done through my Superannuation Fund, with expert high flyer traders who are obviously paid in order to get the best outcome for my fund which I buy into. They get paid bonuses too if they have a good year, but I have seen them get it wrong. It's not a science where if you follow certain rules you are guaranteed because if that was the case we should all be very rich.

They are unable to predict the nation's GDP and a lot of their guesswork is based on historical data and they will tell you that. Predicting what will happen 15 years out is laughable. And yes, Greece and Cyprus were oblivious which is why everyone was borrowing money, Banks were taking Billions worth of deposits and liabilities and buying Billions in bonds to offload their liabilities. If they didn't buy the bonds and derivatives, they would go bust as well, but little did they know that one day their Bonds would become junk. The rest is history. Greek bonds were not always in JUNK status and not even the EU or ECB predicted they would as there were many Western European Banks (French and German) that were holding Greek Bonds. They didn't know either and they lost Billions.

They have NEVER called themselves scientists I am sorry.

[miltiades]

Weird sterling drop just as markets close for weekend ?

sterling.JPG

No obvious reason for it I can see atm ? Anyone got any ideas ?

Hmm looks more like a weird euro gain actually.

Sterling lost over 1 cent against Euro following " news" that the EU has indicated that they are considering re examining the controversial Back stop issue.

[Paphitis]

Weird sterling drop just as markets close for weekend ?

sterling.JPG

No obvious reason for it I can see atm ? Anyone got any ideas ?

Hmm looks more like a weird euro gain actually.

Sterling lost over 1 cent against Euro following " news" that the EU has indicated that they are considering re examining the controversial Back stop issue.

Hey Coco, that's got nothing to do with the backstop.