Robin Hood wrote:This guy is saying more-or-less what I have been trying to get across to you!
What you have put across to me that there is no material difference between exiting the EU via a deal that has some kind of agreed transition period (the deal) and a deal that does not ( your horribly misnamed 'wto dea'l)
Robin Hood wrote:What he says makes sense and with his qualifications and experience he should have a better idea of trade practices than you or I.
What he says makes sense. I do not disagree that it makes sense. I do not disagree or challenge
anything he says. But NONE of that is relevant to the question 'is a "wto deal" based exit fundamentally different from other forms of exit or is just an equivalent alternative to them'. You just can not answer that question, either way by talking about what kind of trade deal we may or may not end up with. That is entirely irrelevant to 'asking that question'. That, every time I try and talk about the real differences between a wto exit and others, you start banging on about stuff that has no relevance to THAT question at all just leads me to wonder 'what the fuck is
really going on here (with you)'.
Once more
By being a member of the EU the UK is party to a whole raft of international trade agreements that define the terms on which it trades with others is conducted. With other EU member states and with any other country the EU has a trade deal with. That is just a fact but not one that is in any way relevant to 'answering the question'
Also and in addition to the above, that is true and IS irrelevant to answering the question.
By being a member of the EU the UK is party to a whole raft of international agreements that are NOT ABOUT TRADE but about other things. Agreements not just with the other EU states but also with all those countries that the EU has such agreements with too. This is just a fact. Do you accept this as just a fact ? Yes or no ? If you do not accept this as a fact, then let's just end this now.
On the assumption that you do accept the above fact as a fact lets continue.
With these non trade agreements there IS a material difference based on how we chose to leave.
Still with me ? Tempted to say 'but people do not care about these issues only the trade ones' ? I am talking about underlying reality here. You can not change underlying reality by being 'interested' on 'not interested'. It is just underlying reality regardless. What people are or are not interested is irrelevant to the point I am making.
So to investigate a bit further let's look at an example of such a non trade international agreement,
Open sky agreements are one such example. There are many more such but this is one of them. In order for one countries planes to be able to fly in another's airspace and visa versa there has to be a signed legal agreement between those two parties. This legal reality also defines the real world practical reality too. Without such an agreement in place, you can not fly your planes in their airspace and their planes in yours. It does not matter if both parties are happy for that to happen anyway without a legal agreement in place. It is nothing to do with transponders or such things. If there is no legal agreement in place then no planes can fly. No agreement - no flights. Full stop. No amount of will, that does not involve a signed agreement can change this.
So on exit, any exit at all, once the EU opens skys agreements no longer applies to the UK it has to be replaced. Fact. It has to be replaced and it will be replaced. Fact. That is not replacing one expired agreement with one new one. It is replacing one expired agreement with one new one to cover the EU and 100 odd other individual and separate bi lateral agreements to cover all the countries we had such agreements with via the EU and now no longer do. This does not just have to be done with open sky agreements but with all the other, non trade agreements, as well. There are a lot of these. Again not on a one to one ratio but on a one to 100 or more ratio. That is a lot of agreements.
Leave one way and we have to replace all these agreements at the same time. 300, 500 maybe even 1000 bi lateral agreements. Any gap between us leaving and signing the new agreement, then whatever that agreement allows, can not happen and will not happen until the new agreement is signed.Leave another way and they all still need to be replaced but we have the time to do this in a manged way. Any gap between when we leave and before we sign the new agreement (till the end of transition period) results in things staying the same as they were before we left until we do sign the new agreement. That is the very
real material difference between a wto exit and other forms of exit. This is why you can not say a wto exit is an equivalent form of exit to one that has an agreed transition period as part of it. It is not equivalent
because it does not have such a transition period. All it has is a 'back stop' position that covers trade in goods and defines what happens re such trade (but nothing else) from the point we leave till when we agree some other trade agreement with the relevant party. Even then what it says will happen in this 'middle period' just for trade in goods, is not that 'things will stay as they are'. It just says what the maximum tariffs on different classes of goods can be. WTO rules are not even a 'trade deal' anyway. They are an international agreement that govern the limits of what parties can do (with regards to trade in goods) when
there is no trade deal between those parties. But that is semantics and not relevant anyway
Now if you say to me, yeah yeah I get it, I just do not think this difference,that results from how we chose to leave, will matter in the end. If you say that you understand / accept this difference exists but is, in your opinion, not a problem and 'Our boys can handle it. Signing 300, 500 ore even more bilateral international agreements all on the same day, not a problem, have some faith'. Say 'yeah they can sign all these agreements all on the same day, even though they will also be trying to negotiate trade deals with 100 + countries from the same day, handle the deployment of 600 new border security staff from the same day, and deal with 100 other consequences of leaving all on the same day. If you said this then we could at least 'move on'.
But you do
not say this. You keep saying that a wto deal (as you totally incorrectly label it) based exit does NOT have such differences to other forms of exiting. These differences do not exist at all, they are made up stories by remoners. You are wrong. You may be wrong because you are consciously lying, unconsciously lying to yourself or because you just do not have the intellectual capability to understand (something I find impossible to believe) but what ever the reason you are still just wrong. The differences are real. They exist. They exist regardless of if you or I want them to exists.
Will you ever accept this ? That wto exit is NOT and equivalent form of exit to others ? Does actual reality matter to you at all ? Will you keep just denying reality, keep just making up claims that are not real to suit all while moaning at the remainers who do this whilst also accusing all those leavers who do not do this , of doing it as well ?