Cyprus-Forum.com

[erolz66]

But if you have a definite opinion then you have to be prepared to explain and defend your opinion.

Which I did attempt to do as well as try and explain why for me 'being willing to put your money were your mouth is' is a way of trying to differentiate between someone who says something and really believes it and someone who says something and does not really believe it. As for the 'million to one chance' being 'figurative' sure I can accept that it is not literal but can you not accept that even figuratively it has to mean 'very small chance'. I can find no booky anywhere that will give me odds that indicate the chance of a no deal is 'very small'. Nor do I think Johnson would be willing to give odds using his own money that the chance of a no deal Brexit is even 10 to 1 let alone a million to one. So my point remains the same, figurative or not, if someone makes such a claim but is not willing to put their money where their mouth is, then the chances are that the claim itself is dishonest.

I can assure you that the former rarely works, but I have not given up after ten years, and usually gets the response TLDR!

All this is based on an assumption that why I chose to engage in these discussion is to convince others of something. That is in fact in my case a false assumption. Anything that leads me to 'better understanding' works for me. TLDR or not TLDR. Finding sources for others or having them presented to me. Funny quips, serious answers, long short whatever. All and any of these can potentially lead me to better understanding , and first and foremost understanding of what I believe and why I believe it and thus can 'work' for me. I do understand that you can 'reinforce orthodoxy' in a short way but to challenge it can only be done with 'length' but that is a different discussion.

The drop is fact .... your reason is hypothesis! Had all the terrible predictions come true immediately after the referendum .... then your hypothesis is likely true. But it didn’t happen because the basis of your theory was wrong. Rapid changes in currency valuations are caused only by one thing ..... currency speculation. Long term changes in currency valuations are generally caused by inflation and deflation of an economy over a much larger time scale.

I totally accept that the drop is fact , me attributing it predominately to Brexit is my belief. I am trying to explan why I have that belief. I have that belief because the sudden and dramatic drop happened exactly when the result did AND the effects of that drop were NOT 'short term'. That drop has remained around the -15% level for three years now. If it had dropped 20% and then within 3 days or even 3 months had returned to a range similar to before the vote I would have no argument that the drop was the result of 'manipulation' which as you rightly point out can only have short term effects. It is exactly because that effect was NOT short term that I find the explanation that is was / is down to 'manipulation' unconvincing. (I had previously been saying speculation when really I should have been saying manipulation)

No, your thinking is wrong. It WILL happen over time as the purchasing power of a currency is subject to inflation. My salary when I first went to work was £6 a week. The minimum wage now is more per hour than I got in one week. The reason is inflation over some 60+ years!

And there is no inflation in the Euro zone ? You may want me to believe that had their been no referendum at all I would still have got less 'stuff' for each of my pounds I spend in euros from the 23 June 2016 on wards through to today and too a similar degree (around 15% on average) than I was getting in the same time period back from the 23rd June 2016, but I just do not believe this. Nothing you have said about 'inflation' has helped me to believe this.

Can’t you see ...... the drop was because of speculation related to something that had yet to happen! How can that drop be anything other than speculation if the event is in the future?

All trading prices are part 'speculative' be they share prices or currency pairs. The price at any given point reflects the averaged opinion of all those buying and selling that thing at that times 'view' on what the value of that thing is based on its performance at that point in time AND what the prospects are for it's value in to the future. In addition to that the price can also be affected by people selling it or buying at a given price NOT because that is the best estimates of the buyer/ sellers opinion on its value now + its future prospects but because that buyer is seeking to manipulate its price for personal gain. However this can not affect the price long term, as you yourself have already pointed out. The price drop AND its continuation over years says to me that is what the effect of something that DID happen has had on that 'averaged opinion / best guess' of those trading it on what its value is now + its prospects for the future. To me the clear effect of the vote result, which is something that DID happen, has been negative on the value of Sterling vs other currencies. Just as it is clear to me that the effect of others things that have happened in regards to the type of exit we are going to end up with have affected that 'averaged best guess as to what underlying value + future prospects are'. When things are done that indicate we are less likely to leave with a no deal, then the price of sterling has strengthen. When things are done that indicate a no deal exit is more likely then sterling has weakened. Now none of this means that this 'averaged best guess of current value + future prospects' is RIGHT about the future prospects. It is however to me and indicator of what might happen that is in essence divorced from political conviction and based on 'honest best guesses'. Yes there can be buyer and sellers buying and selling at prices that are NOT 'honest best guess' but their ability to affect the price can only be short term - short terms meaning days and weeks, not years.

Which shows you that the currency change are through speculation. If tomatoes are 80c a kilo today ...... but a week later they are 1.20 but the exchange rate is more or less the same, then that is market driven. If all the change in £’s but the cost is the same in Euro’s then it has to be, in our cases, driven by changes in currency value.

Am struggling with this. The price of tomatoes in euros can be 'market driven'. As can the price of Euros when bought with Sterling. The idea that the Sterling / Euro rate is not also 'market driven' just as the price of tomatoes is in a given currency makes no sense me ? It is a fact that how many Euros I can get with a pound has changed since the referendum result. That the change has been negative and sustained over years. If you are saying to me that none of that has changed the 'economics' of producing tomatoes then I agree with you. However when you tell me because it has not changed the 'economics' of producing tomatoes therefore the change in Euro /£ rate that has occurred since the Brexit vote and been sustain over time can not be a result of that vote, but must be the result of currency market manipulation, I just do not 'get it' ? Brexit vote happened. Sterling / Euro rate changed dramatically and sustained that dramatic change over time. That to me means, has to mean, that the markets best guess as to what the value of Sterling now + their best guess on future prospects is is lower BECAUSE of the vote (or because no deal looks more liklely).

That is just what it is ..... a guess, not a science! They are traders in currencies ...... if they didn’t speculate then the changes would be over time and dictated by inflation not speculation. The currency ‘markets’ are causing the fluctuations to make money, they couldn't give a shit about the economy!

Yes it is a guess. The point is, it is a guess based on a desire to make money if the guess is right and nothing else. That to me makes it a 'purer' guess than one made by Obsourn or Raab. The currency markets can and do create fluctuations to make money but such things can only effect the price short term and that does not mean that this is therefore the ONLY cause of such fluctuations. When Turkey shot down a Russian jet, there were 'fluctuations' in the value of the TL vs other currencies. These were not 'made up' by traders to make money. They were a reflection what the 'market' (all those buying and selling) best averaged guess was as to how this event was likely to affect Turkey and it's economic prospects as a nation in to the future. So too with Brexit. I do not for a minute think the market gives a shit about the economy and slightly bemused that you seem to think I do think this. I think they care about one thing only making money. That is exactly why their 'best guess', averaged out (wisdom of crowds), carries weight with me vs 'best guesses' that are indivdual and come from people with far wider motives (political) than just 'making money'.

It has affected all of us with sterling incomes so you are not alone. But I am one of those who when I have been shafted, like to find out why, by whom and how. It has taken many years to find out .... and not just by my own opinion or what I think happened. There are many economists that disagree with the present banking and financial systems. The common denominator is THE BANK’s and they way they operate. By far the vast majority of the population don’t have a clue how the system works.

I have never said I am the only one effected. If you want to believe that the vote to leave the EU did NOT have any REAL impact on what the prospects were for the UK economy then you do so. If you want to believe that the Euro/pound market price over months and years is not a reflection of an 'honest' best guess made by people who care about nothing but making money as to what the future consequences of that vote are so be it. If your argument is that these best guess are just guess and not predictions of fact that must and will happen, then we have no argument. If you want to blame 'currency traders' for the fact that ever since the vote and for three years now you are able to buy less stuff for each pound spent in euros and it is not related to the referendum result, then so be it but I just do not agree with you and nothing you have said so far has yet changed me view on that. A decision like Brexit will have an impact, even if it nets out at 0, on the UK's economy. If you want to blame the banks and the banking system for the fact that so far the effects of that decision has all be negative on the value of sterling and sustained for over three years and deny that the decisions ITSELF has played a part in it. so be it but I do not find that a convincing argument at all.

You will be aware of Quantitative Easing (QE)?.........

With respect for me this is now too much topic drift. I realise this is a topic that you have a great and intense interest in. I do too though not to same degree probably, but here, in this thread and in this discussion, it is simply too 'off topic' for me.

I will finish RH by asking you what I think is a simple and not trick question. Do you think that the 'people' having decided by majority to leave the EU should also be the ones to decide HOW we leave, either indirectly via majority of their elected MPs OR directly via referendum, or not ? I am asking you because to date I have yet to find someone here on this forum who voted leave in 2016 who can or will give a simple 'yes, the people should also decide how we leave as well' to that question and that does make me wonder why I can not find such a person.

[Londonrake]

Milti:

My view is that the future of my country shouldn’t be decided by the whims of a bunch of teenage scribbler forex merchants. Just like anyone in my position, I’m taking a hit on the exchange rate. I expected that. To me it will be worth it for my grandkids in the long run though. I think you’ll understand that as a sincere belief.

Obviously, we have radically different points of view on this. Nevertheless, I respect yours, without feeling the need to pour scorn on them.

Time for bed.

[Kikapu]

Why should the future of the UK be decided by currency speculators?

Economically things haven't been as good for a long time (despite the apocalyptic predictions by remainers in the referendum campaign).

Unemployment is at a near half century low (half a million out of jobs in the event of a leave vote according to Osborne)

The country's surplus has been brought under control to the point where tax cuts and increased spending on public services is possible. Huge public borrowing, emergency budget, tax increases, pension cuts, house price crash, immediate deep recession according to Osborne.

UK growth currently exceeds that of the Eurozone.

Tell me more about the lies spun by leavers in the referendum campaign.

I don’t believe the downward spiral of the £££££ for the last 3 years has anything to do with currency speculators and not because of Brexit alone. The fact that majority voted to leave the EU 3 years ago and we are told even today majority would vote to leave, then surely, the £££££ should rise in value and not decline as is the desire of the majority. Surely the majority can’t be wrong, therefore the £ would support the majorities “wise” choice and gain strength from it. Call it currency speculation in favour of the leavers, therefore the £ should be all time high against the €, but it is not, which to any reasonable thinking person, the reason of the £ decline has to do with Brexit and not currency speculation.

[Lordo]

there are many reasons why currency flactuates. one is uncertainty over brexit. brexit will have an effect on the balance of payments which itself will cause the currency to fall. it is a lose lose for the uk no matter which way you look at it.

having said all that here is another thing that was not mentioned before the vote. the government is planning to spend 2.1 billion for a no deal brexit. this is not a one off payment, this is per year. so much for making more economic sense to get out.

what brexiteers really need is more than one brain cell. having just one they are incapable of reasoning.

[Robin Hood]

Erolz66

We see the Brexit implications from different perspectives, so will have to agree to differ and see what time and reality delivers ..... and that is down to the attitude of the people as much as it is to the decisions Government. If the people run around shouting “We’re doomed, we’re all doomed.’ Then they will fail to give Johnson their backing and they will prove their own prophecy.

I will finish RH by asking you what I think is a simple and not trick question. Do you think that the 'people' having decided by majority to leave the EU should also be the ones to decide HOW we leave, either indirectly via majority of their elected MPs OR directly via referendum, or not ?

IMO: The decision was YES or NO ........ as they say in Parliament “The ayes have it, the ayes have it!” The vote was YES to leave, not how, not when but just a simple YES or NO. You can blame Cameron for that. Whether you agree with that result or not, the ‘ayes’ have the majority and we will leave. No more referendums!

We wasted three years whilst the EU ran circles round Teresa May and she came up with a deal that was rejected three times by Parliament. The UK should do as it has now done, that is to go back the EU and say our Parliament on behalf of the people, has rejected that deal ...... I think we should sit down and talk it out again?

If the EU says ‘That’s it, that is all that is on the table and we will not change it!’ Then we don't argue or plead we just walk out of the meeting and announce we are out on the 31st Oct! Obviously all the legal arguments as to why we can’t do that will then be raised ...... but I can’t help wondering why, when Trump does not like a deal, he walks out on it and nobody says a dickey bird! He does not need a transition period, back-stops or talk about compensation ..... he makes a decision and walks!

I am asking you because to date I have yet to find someone here on this forum who voted leave in 2016 who can or will give a simple 'yes, the people should also decide how we leave as well' to that question and that does make me wonder why I cannot find such a person.

I did not vote as I have not lived in the UK for going on 40 years but had I voted I would have voted YES ... to leave! I have explained how I feel about the referendum and the farcical cock up the Government made of things. It should NEVER have been the decision of one person or one party, it was far too important. It should have been cross party and with commerce and industrial leaders involved in the formulation of the leave arrangements.

Just the one piece of EU legislation I previously explained, which clearly showed the EU was all about protecting the financial services and banking, was enough for me to believe it was the right decision. I felt I knew enough about the implications of that to make a YES to leave decision and that it would be the right decision in the long run.

[Robin Hood]

Sterling has fallen for one and only one reason. Brexit. If any of you were conversant with speculative trading either on currencies or stocks then you would understand that speculators can drive a currency or down same eith stocks.
Let's not be silly now the pound is down because the markets see Brexit as bad for the UKs economy. So let's not argue the point, google it if you like but use your logic.

You have explained it very accurately ......... it is ALL speculation and speculation is guesswork and opinion. They are speculating as to what THEY think will happen when the UK leaves the EU and the record shows they are rarely if ever correct in their prophesies. So it is not Brexit that causes the fluctuation in value .... as it has yet to happen, it is speculators opinions and actions that cause the fluctuations. Shut down the currency Markets today and the pound and most other currencies will stabilise as the value will then not be determined by speculators.

If you want proof of that look at the Pound/Euro currency charts on a weekly basis, When the markets close the graph almost levels out, because the computers are still doing the currency calculations but are not subject to the Hooray Henry's in the City adding their speculative opinions.

[miltiades]

Robin, do you think that after Brexit, if it happens at all, Sterling will recover and if so, are we likely to be financially better off ?

[erolz66]

IMO: The decision was YES or NO ........ as they say in Parliament “The ayes have it, the ayes have it!” The vote was YES to leave, not how, not when but just a simple YES or NO. You can blame Cameron for that. Whether you agree with that result or not, the ‘ayes’ have the majority and we will leave. No more referendums!

Exactly the referendum, the way it was structured, told us nothing about the will of the people about the 'how'. I really am not arguing that we should not leave. I really am not arguing that how we should leave should be a 'democratic' decision not a fiat one as some clever means of seeking to lead to a no exit at all. I do accept that accepting that the how should be subjected to 'democracy' (direct or indirect) may have a consequence of increasing the chance and ability of those who want no exit all to get their aim but that is not why I advocate such. I advocate such because our democracy is more important than that increased risk imo.

I am not arguing for more referendum per se. I simply saying that given that we decided on the binary leave and remain and given that there are a spectrum of ways and options on how we leave and what even represents leaving or not, then these decisions should also be subject to 'democracy'. That does not have to require a referendum. I have no problem with the idea that MP's by majority are a vlid expression of the will of the people, that is what we have accepted for 500 years on every decision made bar the three national referendums we have ever had. However there should in my view be some kind of democratic legitimacy in deciding how we leave. So majority of MP's would satisfy me. However if they are unable to agree by majority a way to leave and it is argued that no deal is the only way left then OK, fine ask the people. Not 'no deal' vs 'Remain'. Not no deal vs May s deal or some other. Just no deal exit , yes or no. If we should leave should quite rightly have been down to the people and the majority will of such. Is it really so 'outrageous' to suggest that how we leave should also be down to the people ? If how we leave is not to be down to the people , as expressed either directly or indirectly , then who are we saying should make that decision and on what basis of legitimacy should it be made ?

So I will ask a further question if I may ? Do you think that Johnson should shut Parliament down entirely in order to achieve an no deal exit that the 'people' have said via their elected representatives, is not the majority will ? Do you see no 'danger' to democracy in doing that akin to the danger there would be if brexit were to not happen at all ?

I did not vote as I have not lived in the UK for going on 40 years but had I voted I would have voted YES ... to leave! I have explained how I feel about the referendum and the farcical cock up the Government made of things. It should NEVER have been the decision of one person or one party, it was far too important. It should have been cross party and with commerce and industrial leaders involved in the formulation of the leave arrangements.

Well in terms of the historic cock up we are in total agreement. I do not know if your saw my re post here of a post I had made elsewhere immediately after the 2017 GE and TM's loss of her majority ? It says exactly what you have said above but before it was cocked up not hindsight.

I respect you right to vote (or want to vote if you could) leave. I respect that a majority so voted. I do not claim you did not know what were voting for. I respect that if you say I would have voted leave in the knowledge and acceptance that should we not get a 'good deal' from the EU (though how and who defines that is unclear) we could , should and would leave with a no deal. I respect all of that as your personal opinion and choice. What I do not and can not accept is because all of that is legitimate and true for you personally, that has to also mean therefore it is also true of all the other 17.2 million who voted to leave (or even 93% of them) as well. Now it may be that you are not saying this and if not, then ok but others here from the leave side of the argument are, as I understanding them, arguing exactly that in order to try and make out there was is and always had been a majority who support leaving without a deal.

[erolz66]

We see the Brexit implications from different perspectives, so will have to agree to differ and see what time and reality delivers .....

Yep ok.

If the people run around shouting “We’re doomed, we’re all doomed.’ Then they will fail to give Johnson their backing and they will prove their own prophecy.

Yes I accept that just running around saying 'we are doomed, we are doomed' can well become a self fulfilling prophecy. That just by saying we are doomed you can make that happen. Can you accept that just by saying 'everything will be fine', 'we will be better off, short, medium and long term' that is not 'self fulfilling' in the way doom can be ?

(PS would just like to say thank you for actually 'engaging' with my arguments and not just responding to them with 'slogans' and 'sound bite')

[Robin Hood]

Robin, do you think that after Brexit, if it happens at all, Sterling will recover and if so, are we likely to be financially better off ?

IMO: YES .... I think it very likely! If the vale of the pound rises against the Euro we will be better off. If the Euro drops in value and the pound remains steady against other currencies we will still be better off ......... but the EU will see prices of imported goods rise.

If the EU imposes tariffs on UK goods and the pound has dropped then the cost of UK goods in the EU will change very little so it won't have a big impact on our economy. But if the UK reciprocates and puts the same tariffs on EU goods, they could well price themselves out of the market as we could buy cheaper else where.

It depends what happens on 1st Nov and that will be a significant milestone. If it is a case of the decision is made so let us make the best of it and take the opportunities the break with EU regulation will provide, then I think we will bounce back ..... it is very unlikely to happen over night but as a people I think it needs a positive 'can-do' attitude among all parties in Parliament and the people, to set the direction.