Cyprus-Forum.com

[Londonrake]

If Johnson manages to get a form of exiting the UK, including no deal, that can command majority support of either Parliament or the people, I will accept that. Because I am a democrat. I do not think he will be able to do that before 31st Oct. What is more, unlike some I am prepared to put my money where my (possibly big) mouth is.

So are you willing to put any money where your big mouth is ? Are you willing to bet that Johnson will be able to achieve this before the 31st October ?

Speaking of money, looking at the bookies slant is usually a good starting point. There, it looks like the smart stuff is on everything likely to not happen except a vote of confidence, which in itself involves a lot of "ifs" (a refreshing change for this subject).

Parliament is in recess until 4th September. If the VoC was successful HMG then has 2 weeks to try again. If there's another VoC that goes against the government then a General Election's called. The timetable for that is at least 6 weeks, although the date of the election is actually up to the outgoing PM.

Another factor is that all of the party conferences take place in September.

It's difficult to see how currently a GE could be forced to occur prior to 31st October.

It does seem that the path to anything but a No Deal Brexit is now only followed if a sequence of low probability events take place, such as "Rebels" actually bringing down their own government. Which for some means committing political suicide.

[erolz66]

So you dismiss the content because of the source...?

No I dismiss you claim that I must think the CBI are 'extreme Brexiters'. I have not looked at the content but have seen enough from that website to know that they represent extreme leavers as I define such.

For somebody who claims to seek 'understanding', you continue trot out the same old anti-Brexit lines as all the other Remoaners on any other forum...

Can you explain to me what is 'anti Brexit' in saying I would accept ANY form of Brexit that has legitimate democratic support from either a majority of MP's or a majority of the people for that given form of exit ?

Well it's your lucky day.

I refer you to the referendum as such legitimate democratic support from the majority of people.

You're welcome!!!

The referendum was a legitimate democratic mandate to leave. It was not a legitimate democratic mandate to leave in one specific way only at the exclusion of all others. To claim it was, as you do, is to seek to pervert democracy, as you are seeking to do. It is this determination to get what you want - not leaving, but leaving in the way YOU want, regardless of if that WAY has democratic support or not , that makes your position extremists and inherently anti democratic. The people were asked if they want to leave. They said yes. Why not then ask them which is your preferred way to leave when there are a spectrum of such ways ? Why insist that the ONLY way we can leave is the way YOU want, even when it is KNOWN that way does NOT have majority support of MP's and almost certainly does not have support of the population and whilst refusing to even consider asking the people if they support this way of leaving ?

[Paphitis]

So you dismiss the content because of the source...?

No I dismiss you claim that I must think the CBI are 'extreme Brexiters'. I have not looked at the content but have seen enough from that website to know that they represent extreme leavers as I define such.

For somebody who claims to seek 'understanding', you continue trot out the same old anti-Brexit lines as all the other Remoaners on any other forum...

Can you explain to me what is 'anti Brexit' in saying I would accept ANY form of Brexit that has legitimate democratic support from either a majority of MP's or a majority of the people for that given form of exit ?

Well it's your lucky day.

I refer you to the referendum as such legitimate democratic support from the majority of people.

You're welcome!!!

The referendum was a legitimate democratic mandate to leave. It was not a legitimate democratic mandate to leave in one specific way only at the exclusion of all others. To claim it was, as you do, is to seek to pervert democracy, as you are seeking to do. It is this determination to get what you want - not leaving, but leaving in the way YOU want, regardless of if that WAY has democratic support or not , that makes your position extremists and inherently anti democratic. The people were asked if they want to leave. They said yes. Why not then ask them which is your preferred way to leave when there are a spectrum of such ways ? Why insist that the ONLY way we can leave is the way YOU want, even when it is KNOWN that way does NOT have majority support of MP's and almost certainly does not have support of the population and whilst refusing to even consider asking the people if they support this way of leaving ?

It was just a specific mandate to leave and just leave.

With or without an agreement.

And an agreement will occur anyway, but only if Britain plays its cards right which its starting to do under Boris.

Ruling out Hard BREXIT is just a betrayal of Britain's negotiating power in one foul swoop and that is just STUPID!

Honestly, I just can't for the life of me understand how no one can see that!!

[Lordo]

No doubt Erolz will tell us that the CBI are now 'extreme Brexiteers'...?

No the CBI are not but the Guido Fawlkes website IS.

Oh I see!

Brexiteers = extremists!

cyprus46978-20.html#p883864

Leavers that insist the way we leave must be their preferred way and not any other, when that way does not have majority support of Parliament or the people, are extremists leavers. The Guido website is a platform of such extremist leavers for such extremists leavers, which is why CG likes it so much.

The question that was posed was whether or not Britain should remain or leave the EU.

It was not whether or not Britain should stay or leave dependent on certain deals and preconditions are met.

Shifting the goal posts is just pure dishonesty and a betrayal of the democratic process.

And fear not because the only way to get an agreement is with Boris Johnson common sense approach and negotiations from a position of leverage. It might happen after a NO DEAL BREXIT but you can hardly blame Britain for that.

you clearly was not paying attention to what was being claimed at the time.

outside eu
1. we will not pay anything in to the eu.
correct the government would not pay anything in to the EU on every day basis but the public could would be taxed on what they buy and what they sell . secondly there was no mention of divorce bill at all of 39 billion. instead they claimed we would save 359 million a week which was also incorrect as it did not include the rebate and paymanets made by the eu into deprived areas of the uk.

2. we were also told that we would get a free-trading agreement. also lie as we know without the freedom of movement of people it will never be accepted. certaibnly there was no mention of no-trade deal by anybody or even wto rules.

3. There was no mention that good friday agreement forbids any contols in Ireland which means that the controls have to be between ireland and uk - in otherwords united ireland.

4. even rees smogg said that once we have an agreement we could ask people to vote on it. farage also said this is not the end of it, we will have another vote when he thought that he had lost by 52/48. he changed his tune when he found out that brexiteers had won

what the hell is the matter with asking the pweople to vote for the deal what ever it may be as the deal is not even worked out today never mind 2016.

[erolz66]

Leavers that insist the way we leave must be their preferred way and not any other, when that way does not have majority support of Parliament or the people, are extremists leavers.

You keep repeating this same deluded statement when leaving on WTO terms (or no deal, hard Brexit, Extreme Brexit, Crashing out, etc.) is the default condition agreed by a majority of MPs in parliament.

So all the MPs that voted for WTO as the default are now Extremist Brexiteers...?

A majority of MP's voted to trigger article 50 knowing that doing so did not then remove their right to vote against leaving without a deal should they wish to. Knowing that they retained the right to even revoke it up to the date of exit should they wish to. That is the basis on which they voted to trigger article 50. They exercised their right to stop a no deal exit on March 29th. They will probably do so again. That you did not like that democratic decision made by democratically elected MPs does not mean they had no right to make such a decision or that it is invalid or anti democratic.

[Paphitis]

you clearly was not paying attention to what was being claimed at the time.

outside eu
1. we will not pay anything in to the eu.
correct the government would not pay anything in to the EU on every day basis but the public could would be taxed on what they buy and what they sell . secondly there was no mention of divorce bill at all of 39 billion. instead they claimed we would save 359 million a week which was also incorrect as it did not include the rebate and paymanets made by the eu into deprived areas of the uk.

2. we were also told that we would get a free-trading agreement. also lie as we know without the freedom of movement of people it will never be accepted. certaibnly there was no mention of no-trade deal by anybody or even wto rules.

3. There was no mention that good friday agreement forbids any contols in Ireland which means that the controls have to be between ireland and uk - in otherwords united ireland.

4. even rees smogg said that once we have an agreement we could ask people to vote on it. farage also said this is not the end of it, we will have another vote when he thought that he had lost by 52/48. he changed his tune when he found out that brexiteers had won

what the hell is the matter with asking the pweople to vote for the deal what ever it may be as the deal is not even worked out today never mind 2016.

Once again, Britain will sort the Irish issue out with the Republic of Ireland and has no intention at all I am sure to make things difficult for itself or Ireland.

This is just a red herring.

And Britain will get a Free Trade Deal. Why wouldn't they? They have a lot to loose themselves for not having one and that could put some big German manufacturers over the edge towards insolvency.

[cyprusgrump]

If Johnson manages to get a form of exiting the UK, including no deal, that can command majority support of either Parliament or the people, I will accept that. Because I am a democrat. I do not think he will be able to do that before 31st Oct. What is more, unlike some I am prepared to put my money where my (possibly big) mouth is.

So are you willing to put any money where your big mouth is ? Are you willing to bet that Johnson will be able to achieve this before the 31st October ?

Speaking of money, looking at the bookies slant is usually a good starting point. There, it looks like the smart stuff is on everything likely to not happen except a vote of confidence, which in itself involves a lot of "ifs" (a refreshing change for this subject).

Parliament is in recess until 4th September. If the VoC was successful HMG then has 2 weeks to try again. If there's another VoC that goes against the government then a General Election's called. The timetable for that is at least 6 weeks, although the date of the election is actually up to the outgoing PM.

Another factor is that all of the party conferences take place in September.

It's difficult to see how currently a GE could be forced to occur prior to 31st October.

It does seem that the path to anything but a No Deal Brexit is now only followed if a sequence of low probability events take place, such as "Rebels" actually bringing down their own government. Which for some means committing political suicide.

Looks like Boris' plan is to tour the country campaigning, increasing the polling for the Conservatives and making a VoC unlikely for the reasons you outline...

I think I read today that the Conservatives are ahead in Wales now...? But I probably read that on Guido Fawkes' website so it is probably wrong even tho it was just reporting a YouGov poll...

[Paphitis]

Leavers that insist the way we leave must be their preferred way and not any other, when that way does not have majority support of Parliament or the people, are extremists leavers.

You keep repeating this same deluded statement when leaving on WTO terms (or no deal, hard Brexit, Extreme Brexit, Crashing out, etc.) is the default condition agreed by a majority of MPs in parliament.

So all the MPs that voted for WTO as the default are now Extremist Brexiteers...?

A majority of MP's voted to trigger article 50 knowing that doing so did not then remove their right to vote against leaving without a deal should they wish to. Knowing that they retained the right to even revoke it up to the date of exit should they wish to. That is the basis on which they voted to trigger article 50. They exercised their right to stop a no deal exit on March 29th. They will probably do so again. That you did not like that democratic decision made by democratically elected MPs does not mean they had no right to make such a decision or that it is invalid or anti democratic.

The people voted for BREXIT and therefore Article 50 is a necessary step towards that.

Parliament did not have the right under any legal circumstance to impede Article 50 or prevent or rule out Hard BREXIT

[erolz66]

It's difficult to see how currently a GE could be forced to occur prior to 31st October.

It does seem that the path to anything but a No Deal Brexit is now only followed if a sequence of low probability events take place, such as "Rebels" actually bringing down their own government. Which for some means committing political suicide.

So what odds are you offering on the UK not leaving without a deal on or by the 31st October ? You seem to be saying anything else is a 'remote' probability in your opinion so I assume you are offering decent odds ? Labrokes is offering 2.50 (decimal odds - bet 1 pound win 2.50) of no deal exit before 31st October. They are not offering any odds on anything but a no deal exit by 31st october. Want to step in to the breach ?

[erolz66]

Looks like Boris' plan is to tour the country campaigning, increasing the polling for the Conservatives and making a VoC unlikely for the reasons you outline...

Yes and he is promising to throw billions of pounds at people as well, after years of supporting harsh austerity measures on the basis that such were absolutely necessary and could not be avoided, lessened or delayed. You may be impressed with such pledges but I would not assume that everyone is similarly impressed.

The Johnson boost in the polls following him being appointed leader is almost identical to the boost the Tory party got when TM was appointed leader. It may last just as long and be just as effective as it was for TM in 2017 GE.