Cyprus-Forum.com

[Kikapu]

I am just wondering how willing the Brexiters be to support if and when Scotland, N.Ireland and Wales would want to hold a referendum to leave the UK in order to become an independent states, so that they can rejoin the EU if they wish to?

Surely their democratic wishes needs to be respected no matter how much the Brexiters may believe that such a move would be a bad idea for the UK and for the last remainer, England.

Just a thought.

I am sure no one can stop them but after BREXIT, BJ is the guy that can unify the country.

I feel that Wales, Scotland, and N Ireland are better off with the Union and I believe the vast majority will accept that as fact.

Europe is imploding. There are riots in Spain and Paris. Greece is still getting bail outs. Constitutional strife in Belgium and all is not well in Hungary and Germany is falling into a recession. So things are not good in Europe so why would they want to be a part of all that chaos?

Well, because these three UK states voted overwhelmingly to remain in Europe in the 2016 referendum, that's why.

Except Wales voted to Leave...

Be careful or Erolz will be calling you a liar...

Stand corrected on Wales..but fairly close vote.

[Londonrake]

Stand corrected on Wales..but fairly close vote.

Ahh, then clearly, a "people's vote" is needed to decide the issue.

[Kikapu]

I am just wondering how willing the Brexiters be to support if and when Scotland, N.Ireland and Wales would want to hold a referendum to leave the UK in order to become an independent states, so that they can rejoin the EU if they wish to?

Surely their democratic wishes needs to be respected no matter how much the Brexiters may believe that such a move would be a bad idea for the UK and for the last remainer, England.

Just a thought.

Scotland had a referendum on whether it wished to stay in the UK in 2014. It was, if you recall, a “Once in a lifetime” event (just like Cameron and many others said about the E.U. referendum), according to Alex Salmond at the time. The SNP failed, by a significant number of votes. The SNP’s entire raison d’etre is independence, so of course they will never give up until they get the “right” result. Sound familiar?

Scotland and NI cost the rest of the UK about £29billion a year in various subsidies. If they want to leave a 300 year old, successful, union so they can join another younger and much more remotely governed one that’s entirely up to them. I suspect, given the state of their economies, it would be a painful process.

I had a home in Scotland for 20 years. My kids grew up there and still live in the place. They’re quite a savvy people and I think it would be a very neat trick if Sturgeon could manage to persuade them on that one. Basically, to the single issue SNP, Brexit is just another “once in a lifetime” opportunity for a further referendum. It’s a farce but ultimately their choice. I know where my money will be.

BTW. The SNP have been a total disaster with their governance of Scotland. That was reflected in their huge loss of support at the 2017 election.

I need a clarification on the meaning of "once in a lifetime" event. On whose lifetime are we talking about, because every day, there is a person who turns 18 years old which makes them eligible to vote. It may have been "once in a lifetime" event for all those who had the chance to vote back in 2014, but they cannot vote on the behalf of all those who were under 18 years old in perpetuity. All those who have since become 18+ since 2014 Scottish Independence vote, they have not had the chance to make their "once in a lifetime" vote. BTW, the same argument goes to Brexit too. Democracy is not just "once in a lifetime" event. Once (if it should happen) UK is out of the EU, there is no reason if enough people petition for it, why there cannot be another referendum to re-enter the EU the day after, no?

I believe Scotland and N.Ireland will want to declare their own independence whenever they are ready, regardless of the "once in a lifetime" event in 2014. I'm sure Wales will do the same if all of a sudden the UK's economy starts to keel due to Brexit. North Sea oil fields will fall into the Scottish EEZ, and all proceeds will more than cover their share of the £29B shortfall a year.

[Paphitis]

I am just wondering how willing the Brexiters be to support if and when Scotland, N.Ireland and Wales would want to hold a referendum to leave the UK in order to become an independent states, so that they can rejoin the EU if they wish to?

Surely their democratic wishes needs to be respected no matter how much the Brexiters may believe that such a move would be a bad idea for the UK and for the last remainer, England.

Just a thought.

I am sure no one can stop them but after BREXIT, BJ is the guy that can unify the country.

I feel that Wales, Scotland, and N Ireland are better off with the Union and I believe the vast majority will accept that as fact.

Europe is imploding. There are riots in Spain and Paris. Greece is still getting bail outs. Constitutional strife in Belgium and all is not well in Hungary and Germany is falling into a recession. So things are not good in Europe so why would they want to be a part of all that chaos?

Well, because these three UK states voted overwhelmingly to remain in Europe in the 2016 referendum, that's why.

Except Wales voted to Leave...

Be careful or Erolz will be calling you a liar...

Stand corrected on Wales..but fairly close vote.

Kikakpu,

when Britain gets its FTA (I believe it will), why on earth would Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland leave the union when they would have a chance to benefit from the economic benefits of being in the Union and also have Free Trade with Europe?

And why would they want to join a derelict and crumbling Eurozone that is sinking and killing off little countries like Greece, Cyprus, Ireland, and Portugal. Aren't they scared they will go down that road when they are forced to abandon the Stirling to the Deutsche Mark Euro.

[miltiades]

You are not a European, not even a Cypriot, so don't stick your snotty nose into OUR business.

[erolz66]

No disrespect but I think that perfectly illustrates why it’s mostly a nugatory effort talking to you about this.

I have no idea why you chose to engage in discussions like these. I do however know exactly why I chose to do so. It is nothing to do with convincing other people. For me it is all about me. For me it is a means by which I can better understand , challenge, refine, review what I think and why I think it. If I believe something I want to know why I believe it and if I am wrong I want to know I am wrong and why I am wrong. The process of 'arguing' with others in places like this is simply a means by which I can do these things. So you may see no point or value in such discussion, whilst continuing to engage in them and whilst also saying you see no point in doing so. Things are much simpler for me. If such discussions lead me to better understand why I believe what I do, to realise that I was wrong about something, basically to understand better, then that to me is 'value'.

In what I believe was the largest electoral event in the UK’s history, where the question posed was binary and completely straightforward, preceded by a 6 month campaign, the vote was to leave the EU by a FPTP majority of over a million. That’s the largest mandate any British government has ever been given.

To me this kind of lazy 'over egging of the pudding' makes me 'angry' to a degree, though 'sad' and 'depressed' might be better summations of my feelings. Expressions like 'Largest electoral event in the UK's history' sound impressive but if you are to compare apples with apples , in its history, in over 500 years of parliamentary history, the UK has held UK wide referendums a total of 3 times, ever. Being the 'largest of three' is not quite as dramatic as 'Largest in history'. Then you have 'largest mandate any British government has ever been given' - again if you want to compare like with like, then it's 'out of three'. Even then the claim is less than blandly honest in my opinion. The majority for staying in the EEC in 1975 referendum was not 1 million. It was not 5 million. It was in fact just shy of 9 million. Is a net result of just under 9 million people not a 'larger mandate' than a net result of 1.2 million people ? "2nd largest mandate , out of three" does not sound quite so dramatic as "largest mandate in history" does it ? What adds to my anger and frustration with such partisan, lazy and emotional characterisations is that in any case it just does not matter any way. You won. That is all that really matters in terms of how the system works. I have little to no doubt that you have the intellectual capability to have worked all this out for yourself, to be able to understand how dubious the claim of 'largest mandate in history' actually is. Yet still you repeat and regurgitate this widespread 'meme' none the less, or that is how it appears to me.

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Three years later, after just about every devious trick in the book has been used to thwart that result, we are no closer to leaving today than on 24th June 2016.

I understand your frustration and anger about the use of 'dirty tricks'. However what undermines my belief in the sincerity of your anger at such things is that your criticism of them appears so one sided and partial. Can you honestly say that during the campaign and after, significant elements of the leave campaign groups themselves did not use 'dirty tricks' in order to try and win the vote and then having won it to try and get a specific form of Brexit over any other kind ? So I am left with the impression that you dislike dirty tricks when they play a part in stopping you getting what you want but are at best indifferent to them when they play a part in you getting what you want and at worst you actively seek to deny such dirty tricks even exist.

I don’t really know what you feel you have to be angry about (well, apart from losing of course)

Am I not allowed, as someone who voted to remain, to be 'angry' that the UK is in a mess, paralysed, divided and tearing itself apart and has been in this state for three years and with no end in sight ? Am I not allowed to be angry that the reason why the referendum that has caused all of this was called at a time that was the worst in terms of national interest was down to narrow 'party' interest ? You think I can not be as angry as you at the failure of our politicians and political system to bring this to some sort of conclusion, whatever that conclusion might be. or even move forward, just because I voted to remain in 2016 ? On a more personal level can I not be angry that the effects on me, directly and personally of this whole thing to date has been that for the last three years I have been able to buy around 15% less stuff with each pound of my sterling income I have that I spend in either Euros or TL ? I say again, do you think those who voted leave have a monopoly on 'righteous anger' ?

but that certainly pisses me off.

I get your anger. I understand it. I do not deny it or the 'righteousness' of it. Can you not afford me the same ? Why do you believe that only your anger is 'righteous' ? I, as someone who voted to remain, accept and acknowledge that should we end up not leaving there would be much 'wrongness' in that, much danger and risk and threat to the very fabric of our democratic systems and structures in the UK. I acknowledge and accept this I do not deny it. Nor do I deny that should we end up leaving via a no deal forced through by 'dirty tricks' from a minority government without any regard for what the will of the people truly is for that kind of exit, then the same things also apply and to a very similar degree. We are in a shit position with danger all around.

If some omnipotent being said to me you can reverse time and reality and can chose between a scenario where by May's deal went through parliament and we left on the 29th March, or staying in the position we are in right now complete with a chance of brexit no happening at all, I would chose the former. Not because I think May's deal is exit in name only, it is not and not in any sense that matters to me personally (for example if it is brexit in name only would I still retain my right to live and work anywhere in 28 nation states without any restriction or hindrance). Nor is it my personal 'preferred' form of exit from a spectrum of such possible forms. I would chose it because any 'democratically valid result' would imo be better than where we are right now. I want us to get out of this mess, to find a way forward that does not fracture and divide society and threaten our democratic structures and systems way more than I want us to 'remain'. I do not see, to give just one example, how the kind of 'over egging' of the pudding claims like 'largest democratic mandate in history' can or will ever help us get of the mess we are in.

Did you get the bit about “a day of reckoning ”?

Do you disagree that had it been 52/48 for staying then it would have been game over?

My take on this, what I think I have 'learnt' or 'understood' from the whole thing is that we as a country historically fucked up and fucked up bad in terms of our relationship to and membership of the EU. That for years, decades there were people with valid and rational concerns about our membership of the EU and the way the EU was evolving, with the consent of our governments but without the explicit consent of the people, and that they were 'marginalised' and ignored and their voices not heard. In hindsight I think we should have listened better and acted in response to such concerns and not ignore them. We should have put in place laws that explicitly said there can be no change in the status of the UK position in the EU in terms of sovereignty without explicit consent of the people via referenda, like Ireland has. That if we had done this then the chances that we would have ended up where we are right now in the way we ended up here would have massively reduced. As such my personal position had the result been 52/48 the other way would absolutely not have been 'job done, nothing to do on the issue now, we have shut up the leavers for another 40 years'. I would, in such a scenario, be arguing that whilst remain may have narrowly won, we should not and must not ignore that fact that 16 million people voted the other way. That we should listen to their concerns, we should look at ways of addressing them (like with a law requiring direct consent of the people for any future change in status). You may not believe I am sincere when I say this but really I do not care what you believe about my sincerity in this regard.

I think one of the elements, one of the 'dynamics' of this whole process and why it has been and remains so polarised and bitter and divisive is linked to the reality of what we did wrong leading up to it. That there is an element, conscious or otherwise, of 'revenge'. Of a view that 'we were ignored and marginalised and not listened to, now the tables are turned let's see how you like it'. I understand such emotion, the 'righteousness' of it, the 'humanness' of it. I also acknowledge the hypocrisy of what I am about to say as well, given that historically I was on the 'side' of those doing the 'ignoring'. I think we have to try and acknowledge these dynamics, within ourselves first and foremost and try our best, despite the righteousness of such feeling, to not let them alone lead and drive us because doing so will not help us find a way out of this mess. I think we all have a 'duty' here to try and not let such emotions dominate but to focus on how we get out this mess with the least damage, to society and our democratic systems, as we can. Again I acknowledge all this is 'easy to say' when for the previous 40 years I was not on the side that was being ignored and marginalised and that I am only saying it now because the tables have turned and the inherent hypocrisy in that and yet I still think it is true.

Given the relative positions, do you think anything is served by this interminable circle of ultimately pointless discussion? Except to make you feel a bit better that is.

So we come round full circle and go back to the start of this post again. I have no idea why you chose to engage in such discussions whilst saying you see no point in them. For me the very process of trying to take notions and ideas that are in my head and 'verbalise' them in a way I hope is understandable to others has value to me in that it helps me better understand what I believe and why I believe and to evolve and change that hopefully improve that understanding.

[Kikapu]

Kikakpu,

when Britain gets its FTA (I believe it will), why on earth would Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland leave the union when they would have a chance to benefit from the economic benefits of being in the Union and also have Free Trade with Europe?

And why would they want to join a derelict and crumbling Eurozone that is sinking and killing off little countries like Greece, Cyprus, Ireland, and Portugal. Aren't they scared they will go down that road when they are forced to abandon the Stirling to the Deutsche Mark Euro.

Paphitis, for the UK, being an EU member has been an economic boom for all those years. Brexit is not about UK economics being bad because of being an EU member, but it is so much more that, it’s feeling being more superior to the other foreigner in the EU club and not wanting EU citizens coming at will to the UK. Now that the UK has took all it can from being an EU member, they want to become the “Lone Ranger” to try and benefit more for themselves only, which was the arrogance of choosing, cherry picking a deal with the EU which would benefit the UK best and leave the “shit” stuff to the EU. The EU said to the UK in essence, “go fuck yourself”. EU said, if you want to leave, go ahead, but don’t expect to walk away with a sweetheart deal, and they won’t. It is really a slap in the face what the UK is doing, but it is their choice, but the EU is not going to make it easy for them either.

[Londonrake]

Erolz. Sorry, I looked at a few bits, where I was hoping for a straight answer, but basically TLDR.

As I've said before, I'm sure it makes you feel better writing down how you feel - at length here - but it really doesn't matter. Moreover, it's a much, much simpler situation than all your lengthy, detailed analysis suggests.

Why do I post (yep got that far! )? Well, to help make you feel better of course! I guess though perhaps to try and help GR out a bit now and then. However, after 3 years - and even with regular ongoing events - the majority of the time it really is a case of the same ole, same ole.

Will Boris pull it off? I'm not holding my breath. Will there be a General Election? Dunno. Will all those "rebels", some of whom know they're unlikely to ever see the inside of parliament again, bring down their own government and destroy their party, possibly for a generation? Dunno. Fascinating stuff though - don't you think?

What on earth are we going to talk about when (if!!) it's all over?

Thank you - after a couple of tries - for answering my question regarding the likely situation if remain had won by a narrow margin (well, just a million or so). However, despite your magnanimous response I think you're missing the main point. We both know, I'm sure, that such a result (the widely expected one) would have been accepted and, whilst I personally believe UKIP would have continued to go from strength-to-strength, there would have been none of the "civil war" stuff that truculent remainers have engendered since 2016. Remainers are entirely responsible for that situation. Shame on you all.

Once again - after all that's happened - this is NEVER going away. Believing it will is self delusional. The idea that all those millions of people would accept remaining in the EU, with a shrug of the shoulders and "Ohh well we tried, back to the salt mines," is risible. No matter how much the situation is forensically analysed and rationalised.

If GR should stop posting on this vexatious subject then so will I. Otherwise, I'll drop in now and then, just to top-up your happiness.

[erolz66]

....where I was hoping for a straight answer, but basically TLDR.

You think my 'answers' were not straight, even though you considered the post TLDR. I think they are perfectly straight, honest and sincere and that you just do not like my answers because they are not the ones you wanted to receive when you asked them.

As I've said before, I'm sure it makes you feel better writing down how you feel - at length here - but it really doesn't matter.

Look if you prefer to ascribe motives for why I write here that are in your head and ignore what I have written about such because its TLDR then that is fine with me. If you ever do get round to trying to read what I have written on this and trying to understand it you will see it is nothing to do with 'making me feel better'. It is everything to do with 'understanding' better. As far as I am concerned the more and better I understand the 'world' the less 'good I feel' - ignorance is bliss and all that. Yet for me personally I would always chose increasing that understanding and decreasing my bliss than not doing so.

Moreover, it's a much, much simpler situation than all your lengthy, detailed analysis suggests.

Some people may take the view that something is either simple or it is complex. My world experience and view tells me that just about everything can be and is both 'simple' and 'complex' all at the same time. That you prefer the 'simple' only , the 'sound bite' is your choice. I am interested in both myself, the simple and the complex.

Why do I post (yep got that far! )? Well, to help make you feel better of course! I guess though perhaps to try and help GR out a bit now and then. However, after 3 years - and even with regular ongoing events - the majority of the time it really is a case of the same ole, same ole.

You consider that an example of a 'straight answer' do you ? You think after that I have a better understanding as to why you chose to engage in subjects like this , whilst saying such is pointless ? If you do think that then I am afraid it has not worked for me.

Will Boris pull it off? I'm not holding my breath. Will there be a General Election? Dunno. Will all those "rebels", some of whom know they're unlikely to ever see the inside of parliament again, bring down their own government and destroy their party, possibly for a generation? Dunno. Fascinating stuff though - don't you think?

I am actually 'happy' that Johnson is setting out 'clear lines'. I do not believe that there is a significantly better withdrawal agreement deal that can be negotiated with the EU and that if only we had been more 'determined' and 'steadfast' we would have got such but I do accept I might be wrong and if I am I want to know that. So in those terms I am happy with Johnson taking the approach he is rather than trying to just redo what TM tried (appeal to all sides) so that can be 'tested'. Either his approach will lead to a better withdrawal offer from the EU or it will not. Yes 'interesting times' but also scary and concerning times too.

What on earth are we going to talk about when (if!!) it's all over?

I will continue to talk about anything as and when I feel like it , if I feel doing so helps me better understand the world. You can do as you like.

We both know, I'm sure, that such a result (the widely expected one) would have been accepted and, whilst I personally believe UKIP would have continued to go from strength-to-strength, there would have been none of the "civil war" stuff that truculent remainers have engendered since 2016. Remainers are entirely responsible for that situation. Shame on you all.

This is just total bollocks as far as I can see and understand what you are saying. If there really was only one way to 'leave', if there really were no countries that were not in the EU but were in the customs union, or the single market, then I would get what you are saying and not disagree with it. The reality is there ARE many ways the UK could be said to have 'left' the EU. When a 'leaver' says to me that we voted to leave therefore that has to mean we must leave in only one way (sever all ties with the EU entirely in terms of things like customs union, single market and others because you can not be half in) to me that is little different from a reamainer, after a fictional win in the referendum, claiming that as we voted to stay in the EU and because you can not be 'half in and half out', it means therefore that people had voted, by voting to remain, for joining the Euro and Schengen and all explicitly not only without the need for any further 'test' on if this is what the will of the people is but also explicitly without asking them because democracy demands that and they have been asked already. Taking a vote for one thing (to leave, or to remain) and then claiming it is an expression of the will of the people for some other thing , even if that different thing is an extension of the first thing (to leave in a certain and specific way, to remain and be fully in) is just not valid. At all. Either way round. Shame on those who do insist that a vote for one thing is an expression of the will for that one thing achieved only one way.

Once again - after all that's happened - this is NEVER going away. Believing it will is self delusional. The idea that all those millions of people would accept remaining in the EU, with a shrug of the shoulders and "Ohh well we tried, back to the salt mines," is risible. No matter how much the situation is forensically analysed and rationalised.

If you can find any example where I have said 'this is all going to go away' then I might respond. If not I'll just leave you tilting at straw men without my participation.

If GR should stop posting on this vexatious subject then so will I. Otherwise, I'll drop in now and then, just to top-up your happiness.

I have no idea why you keep mentioning GR (GetReal) ? As far as my memory serves he has not posted on Brexit at all and has not posted on this forum on anything for a considerable time now. Again as memory serves (and I can not be arsed to check) the first couple of times I saw you post on Brexit, they were 'pro active' posts of yours about the subject, that were imo partisan and biased and flawed and when I responded to you first proactively raising the subject to challenge you, you responded with 'well there is no point discussing such things'.

To be as 'straight' and 'honest' as possible here, and not that it particularly matters or I particularly care, I find you entire presence and participation here on this forum somewhat 'dubious', from the relatively short time I have observed it. From what I can tell you appeared to have come here first and foremost in order to carry on some long standing historic spat with Robin Hood that started elsewhere and was closed down there. Again from memory I have have over that time notice quite a few posts of yours that are basically jumping in to conversations RH is having with others, that go along the lines of 'I feel your frustration, this is what RH does etc etc' and adding nothing to the discussion beyond that. These seem totally in line with an agenda of having come here to carry on some historic spat with RH that was shut down elsewhere. If I am brutally honest, the impression I get from many of your posts and certainly the earlier ones, is that you were simply try to 'win friends and allies' in a 'smarmy' way to better server your overall long term agenda of 'spatting' with RH.

[miltiades]

Come now, the ONLY reason the " leavers" have is the fact that the EU is full of ...bloody foreigners, no sound economic reason , NOT the slightest, neither you, my ...mate? , nor the Plonker have mentioned the pound.Why? Because you know well that the ONLY reason the pound has lost so much against both the Euro and the dollar is because of Brexit. !! Its common sense mate. Brexit is not economically a sound " investement" The markets have had 3 years to digest this yet the pound is still losing. Unless of course all leavers are so
Wealthy they do not care. Admitt the irrefutable fact. Germany IS top dog, the euro IS a success challenging the US.$ as the world currency. As for Europeans flooding into the UK , how about the millions of .... Letter boxes and bank robbers spread all over the UK ?
The truth is an intense envy of Germany the TOP dog of Europe.