by repulsewarrior » Wed Jul 24, 2019 8:37 pm
...ultimately Greece must come to an Agreement with Turkey, and Turkey expects the terms of the Treaty of Lausanne to change.
...comprehensively, a new balance of power can be worked out; what with the disruptions to it she has made, brinkmanship or not, it has moved the players to react. And as such, there exists, on this subject, the East Med Gas Forum, where a chair is waiting for Turkey (and Syria (and Lebanon)), as well. And where the work is well under way for a regional hegemony, with or without Turkey.
...it is not hard to imagine that Turkey may recognise Cyprus as Cyprus, if as 'Greeks'', and ''Turks'', (internally) a mechanism exists where as, as Constituencies, they may plan to provide toward this venture's profitability, and as Cypriots, the benefits which they will gain from the success of their work.
...it is not hard to see other Tripartite meetings, for settling the remaining undeclared EEZs: Turkey, Greece, Cyprus, for one; Turkey, Syria, Cyprus, for another.
...and if not, we may witness the world collapsing around itself, that he is right, notions like Humanity, or a Family of Man, are frail and meaningless because there is no unity in defending such Principals, among those, in essence, not ''Turkish''.
In effect, to deliver on his promise, for a "new" Turkey, things as they are, in the Aegean, as in the Eastern Med., (and Syria, Iraq, and Iran,), (and Russia,) in his mind, cannot remain the same. Erdogan may change his position (because it suits his intentions), he may recognise Cyprus, but, his goal at the moment, is to open all the doors toward total supremacy because, it seems no one may oppose him, alone.
...many conditions favour a diplomatic resolution, region-wide, and on the sea (in the spirit of UNCLOS). One way or another, Turkey seeks a presence that reflects its size, and an influence that extends beyond its borders, regionally and world-wide. Certainly, he is preparing for this eventuality, and this capacity. Yet, in the end, Maximalist demands are (will be) reduced to Agreements that suffice; it is no different here.
Such as it is we live in interesting times.
While i am very hopeful, i also know that the best preparations for this eventuality like Erdogan, is to be prepared for War.