Cyprus-Forum.com

[Sotos]

You mean specifically in terms of GDP per head of GC population will fall after a BBF ? That on average GC will be less 'wealthy' after a BBF than before ?

I am not talking just about GDP per head but in general. From GDP point of view some will gain, some will lose, for most GCs I believe BBF will have no immediate effect. But in the long run I think we will lose from the financial point as well due to the reduced stability and ineffectiveness of the central government. But most of all we will lose in many other aspects as well, which I personally highly value, such as democracy and liberty.

This article by BBC about Bosnia has a lot of things that I believe would also be true in a BBF Cyprus: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-17211937 I quote the relevant bit for our discussion here, but there many other parallels which I could point out to you later.

It is considered one of the most corruption-prone states in Europe, mainly on account of the legacy of deep ethnic and political divisions left by the 1992-1995 war and by the country's complex administrative framework.

About the standard of living of TCs, yes, I am sure a solution will have a big positive effect. Obviously some people might need to adjust, but on the whole it will have a big positive impact since the north will no longer be an illegally occupied territory, property prices will sky rocket, tourism will increase, trade will increase, and there will direct help by EU and our side to bring TCs standards of living a lot closer to ours.

Again I struggle with this notion that TC (political leaders and population generally) predominantly always place Turkey's interests ahead of Cypriot interest.

I think you misunderstood what I said. TCs place their own interests above the interests of anybody else. TCs gain from their partnership with Turkey (or so they believe), especially the politicians. We also do that with EU. We give up powers, EU can place fines and penalties on us, we have to accept many things that some of us might not like (and complain about them) but in the end of the day we do it because we believe that on the whole EU benefits us. Obviously TCs value all the powers and privileges they gained in 1959, and they want the additional powers they can gain with a BBF agreement, all due to Turkey. And if we assume that the TCs truly believe that their own lives and security depend on Turkey then the perceived benefits from Turkey are massive. And yes, maybe some will complain, but in the of the day TCs will do what Turkey asks them to do because on the whole they will believe that they gain from this partnership.

In any case for me if your really believe that TC will always put the interests of Turkey ahead of those of Cyprus then I think you should fear and oppose reunification even under the terms of TC as 'just' an ethnic minority in a fully 'democratic' RoC. Maybe you do ? I will expand a bit on this.

If TCs were "just" an ethnic minority that would mean that Turkey gained nothing for them and TCs wouldn't need Turkey, and therefore wouldn't need to "pay" Turkey. Sure, an 18% can have a big influence in a democracy, but that is not quite the same as veto power. And in such a case TCs would use their proportional power share to promote their own interests, and not also the interests of Turkey. So I am fine with that.

[erolz66]

OK I think I understand you better now. I think you are saying

Under a BBF TC would still 'need' Turkey to 'protect' their communal based privileges that BBF grants and thus would promote Turkish interests. If they did not should those privileges they gained under the BBF come under threat they would have no one to 'turn to' to help them maintain them.
Under a 'democracy' TC would not still need Turkey because there would be no special privileges to 'protect' and thus they would promote their own (Cypriot) interests.

Would that be a fair 'summary' or have I misunderstood you again ?

[Sotos]

OK I think I understand you better now. I think you are saying

Under a BBF TC would still 'need' Turkey to 'protect' their communal based privileges that BBF grants and thus would promote Turkish interests. If they did not should those privileges they gained under the BBF come under threat they would have no one to 'turn to' to help them maintain them.
Under a 'democracy' TC would not still need Turkey because there would be no special privileges to 'protect' and thus they would promote their own (Cypriot) interests.

Would that be a fair 'summary' or have I misunderstood you again ?

That would be a fair summary. An 18% of people having veto powers on just about everything is on its own a big negative for me. That this group will use those powers to also serve the interests of Turkey makes the situation even worst.

[erolz66]

That would be a fair summary.

So assuming you are still willing to 'indulge' my questions*.

Do you not think that under a 'democratic' solution TC may still 'cling' to Turkey on the basis that they fear that the protections they have as a minority might, in the future, be eroded and undermined such that they still need or may need the 'protection' of Turkey in the future and that hey do not trust others like the 'EU' or 'world powers' ? Or is it that you accept in a democracy this may happen but the 'power' that such a TC community would have in a democratic system, like that of getting to choose which presidential candidate wins, is sufficiently less than the 'veto' power they would have under BBF that you can tolerate such for the greater good of 'a united democratic Cyprus' ?

* I would just like to say thank you for 'indulging me' with your responses to my questions and the nature of them. For me I do genuinely feel the discussion has been of interest and 'value'. That as a result of it to some degree greater than zero I better understand my own position and yours. And while I am at it let me also thank the admin for providing the space in which such a discussion has been able to happen.

[Sotos]

I think that if there is such a great fear among TCs that they wouldn't agree to such solution in the first place. Beyond that there are cultural, historical and many other bonds between TCs and Turkey which will never go away and TCs will certainly want to maintain a friendly relationship with the Turks, something which I do not object. The difference is that in this case Turkey might be making "requests" to the TCs to "try" to pass certain things and as long as those things aren't against Cyprus' interests then the TCs might still push for them, but if those things do not pass the TCs can say to Turkey "We tried, but as you know it is not just up to us". But in a "solution" where TCs gain vetoes on just about everything, then Turkey will not be making "requests" but instead "demands" expecting the TC to use the powers that Turkey secured for them to promote the interests of Turkey.

* You don't need to thank me... that is why we are here. My objection before is that no matter what we say here or anywhere it can have no effect in the real world.