Cyprus-Forum.com

[Jerry]

The EU has a bit of a problem here, if it takes action against Turkey for its illegal action then we will see thousands of refugees arriving in Greece again. With hindsight we can see how Turkey allowed the refugee influx to escalate and then stopped it but now holds the EU to ransom should it threaten to sanction that country over any criminal act it commits now or in the future.

Turkish bravado and chest beating knows no bounds, it plans to rename the street the US embassy stands in in honour of its invasion of Syria. http://abcnews.go.com/International/wir ... e-53023014

I suppose this is one instance where we have to be grateful that the US has a president like Trump in charge, he's less likely to take any shit from Erdogan than any of his predecessors.

Jerry,
Once the refugees know that if they go to Greece, that's the far as they will get since the borders to the EU is closed for them beyond Greece. They will end up in refugee camps. They are free in Turkey now, so why go to Greece. Erdogan does not have that trump card any longer to blackmail the EU. He can only be spoiler. In return, the EU must hit Turkey very hard economically and politically, including taking PKK off the terrorist list, just to teach Erdogan a lesson. Enough pussy footing with Erdogan and his merry men of thugs.

I'm not sure about that; Greece does not have the capacity to hold hundreds of thousands of refugees sooner or later they would want other EU states to take a share. We know that the people traffickers lie to their victims about where they will be landed and how wonderful life can be in Europe.

[Sotos]

The EU has a bit of a problem here, if it takes action against Turkey for its illegal action then we will see thousands of refugees arriving in Greece again. With hindsight we can see how Turkey allowed the refugee influx to escalate and then stopped it but now holds the EU to ransom should it threaten to sanction that country over any criminal act it commits now or in the future.

Turkish bravado and chest beating knows no bounds, it plans to rename the street the US embassy stands in in honour of its invasion of Syria. http://abcnews.go.com/International/wir ... e-53023014

I suppose this is one instance where we have to be grateful that the US has a president like Trump in charge, he's less likely to take any shit from Erdogan than any of his predecessors.

Jerry,
Once the refugees know that if they go to Greece, that's the far as they will get since the borders to the EU is closed for them beyond Greece. They will end up in refugee camps. They are free in Turkey now, so why go to Greece. Erdogan does not have that trump card any longer to blackmail the EU. He can only be spoiler. In return, the EU must hit Turkey very hard economically and politically, including taking PKK off the terrorist list, just to teach Erdogan a lesson. Enough pussy footing with Erdogan and his merry men of thugs.

I'm not sure about that; Greece does not have the capacity to hold hundreds of thousands of refugees sooner or later they would want other EU states to take a share. We know that the people traffickers lie to their victims about where they will be landed and how wonderful life can be in Europe.

The EU simply used the wrong method to deal with Turkey. They should have used the stick instead of the carrot (or at least a stick and a carrot). Look at how Russia handled Erdogan after the downing of the Russian plane. They put embargoes on Turkey and Erdogan had to beg for forgiveness. That is the right way to deal with people like Erdogan and the EU should finally recognize it. Put some crippling embargoes on Turkey and then Erdogan will do what he is told.

[Sotos]

So where are the Italian. American, and Israeli navies then?

There is no need for any navies. If Turkey does something that harms EU interests then EU can cripple Turkey with embargoes. EU is just slow to react trying all other methods first... but sooner than later Turkey will allow the drilling or face consequences.

Will that be sometime this century?

I predict that it will be gradually increasing measures against Turkey starting from the end of this month if by then the issue is not resolved.

[Paphitis]

So where are the Italian. American, and Israeli navies then?

There is no need for any navies. If Turkey does something that harms EU interests then EU can cripple Turkey with embargoes. EU is just slow to react trying all other methods first... but sooner than later Turkey will allow the drilling or face consequences.

Will that be sometime this century?

I predict that it will be gradually increasing measures against Turkey starting from the end of this month if by then the issue is not resolved.

I reckon the issue will be resolved, but not for Greece.

Greece is going to cop it in the Aegean. Refugees and military action.

Erdogan will not back down in the Mediterranean without doing something to save face, and that is going to be very bad news for Greece because its going to be bigger than Imia. Erdogan can't lose face. He is one of the worse ego-maniacs on the planet.

[Robin Hood]

IMO: If the EU and those supporting the Cyprus position are faced with a military conflict with a NATO member state, I doubt they will do so just for the benefit of Cyprus. Unfortunately Cyprus is the minor party in this situation. Those being faced with military action to support Cyprus will negotiate a settlement behind the scenes and Cyprus will be forced to accept the reality of compromise.

At the end of the day it will be what suits the US and Israel that will determine what Cyprus gets out of the deal. If they have to dump Cyprus ..... they will!

[Paphitis]

USA and Israel don’t dump on anyone, especially allies.

That’s not how business is done. If Cyprus is a friend and ally to USA, a EU member State and a friend to NATO, they will do their best to support Cypriot interests in compliance with UNCLOS.

The USA and Israel won’t jeopardise there energy interests to placate Turkey.

In the end, Turkey will be forced to accept the secure energy rights of Cyprus but Turkey will lash out at Greece so that Erdogan doesn’t lose face at home.

It doesn’t matter how small you are either. The USA leads by example according to International Law and won’t be setting any precedence which is akin to shooting itself in the foot especially with regard to the South China Sea.

[Paphitis]

The EU has a bit of a problem here, if it takes action against Turkey for its illegal action then we will see thousands of refugees arriving in Greece again. With hindsight we can see how Turkey allowed the refugee influx to escalate and then stopped it but now holds the EU to ransom should it threaten to sanction that country over any criminal act it commits now or in the future.

Turkish bravado and chest beating knows no bounds, it plans to rename the street the US embassy stands in in honour of its invasion of Syria. http://abcnews.go.com/International/wir ... e-53023014

I suppose this is one instance where we have to be grateful that the US has a president like Trump in charge, he's less likely to take any shit from Erdogan than any of his predecessors.

Jerry,
Once the refugees know that if they go to Greece, that's the far as they will get since the borders to the EU is closed for them beyond Greece. They will end up in refugee camps. They are free in Turkey now, so why go to Greece. Erdogan does not have that trump card any longer to blackmail the EU. He can only be spoiler. In return, the EU must hit Turkey very hard economically and politically, including taking PKK off the terrorist list, just to teach Erdogan a lesson. Enough pussy footing with Erdogan and his merry men of thugs.

I'm not sure about that; Greece does not have the capacity to hold hundreds of thousands of refugees sooner or later they would want other EU states to take a share. We know that the people traffickers lie to their victims about where they will be landed and how wonderful life can be in Europe.

The EU simply used the wrong method to deal with Turkey. They should have used the stick instead of the carrot (or at least a stick and a carrot). Look at how Russia handled Erdogan after the downing of the Russian plane. They put embargoes on Turkey and Erdogan had to beg for forgiveness. That is the right way to deal with people like Erdogan and the EU should finally recognize it. Put some crippling embargoes on Turkey and then Erdogan will do what he is told.

I don’t think it’s an easy thing to deal withTurkey. Even Russia can’t deal with them and the Turks were not apologetic about the shooting down of a Russian Fighter. You would recall Russia engaging Turkey positively shortly afterwards because they wanted to use the Kurds to drive a wedge deep within NATO.

Basically, I believe a major war in the Middle East is inevitable.

I don’t reckon anyone is worried about any Russian embargoes. Such an embargo is meaningless when you can sell to the EU.

Erdoganand Pootin are extremely dangerous.

[repulsewarrior]

...more likely, (the Italian frigate shadowing, and) the rig will withdraw, the exploration will be significantly delayed. I hope not, but that too would have a relationship to its price (oil/gas). Should they change their plan, to avert this crisis, to save on the expense, the disruption risks far greater consequences.

My guess as i've said, is that Turkey will plant her rig where ENI was going (block 3). The Piri Reis will roll out, and at the same time Greece will see itself defending their positions from direct contact with Turkish Armed Forces' hostile behaviour. A very hot summer indeed.

Erdogan may deflect these issues, for an Agreement with the EU, Visa free travel for his masses. All this without the recognition of Cyprus, will be his intention, while his Navy will not return to their bases, it will turn toward Syria, and it will have secured for itself a position in the balance of power in and on this sea.

...Israel, Lebanon, and Egypt, i will add, do not lose from such a scenario, Turkey may be generous no less, but they will have to agree to Turkey's terms, to recognise "her Continental Shelf", Turkey's influence, and might. (how likely is that?)

...tough times for the rest of us, while Turkey's "Turks" make every effort to win elections this year; it's war, his opium for the masses, "his" religion feared.

[Londonrake]

I wonder what the viability of off-shore energy production is nowadays?

US fracking has recently passed a production record of10M barrels a day, blowing a hole in OPEC’s plans to reduce the world oil glut and thus increase prices - again.

At this rate, by 2020 it looks like Texas will be producing more oil than Saudi’s giant Ghawar field. The country will become an net oil exporter.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/13/us-oil- ... years.html

.

[Oceanside50]

https://sputniknews.com/society/2018020 ... as-europe/

..”A number of analysts predict that Europe may soon face a gas slump and abrupt rise in fuel costs, Alexander Medvedev, the Deputy Chairman of the Management Committee of Russian energy company Gazprom pointed out in an interview to Reuters news agency...”

I was right all along when I posted Greece + Cyprus would save the EU...

The EU needs to defend its interests, they can start by creating a naval blockade around the occupied areas of Cyprus, next an expeditionary force along with the CNG, to eradicate Cyprus of Turks once and for ever(the tc can go too)