erolz66 wrote:Maximus wrote:I predict a victory for republicans come the next election.
FWIW I personally think the betting odds are probably about right. Very close with a slight recent trend of slight edge for Democrat victory. I also think the chance of landslide is remote given the whole Trump strategy is based around polarization and keeping hold of enough of his solid base to secure a victory in electoral college without a need for majority in popular vote. I also think Trump has a harder task this time round in significant ways in the sense that there was a large reservoir of people of all persuasions and especially floating voters that were attracted to anyone who was not a normal politician, better the devil they did not know so to speak. Trump is no longer the Devil you do not know. His different and disruptive attractions are a known outcome now not an unknown one and that I think is likely to be net negative for him. Then there is the reality that the pandemic is not over. If people do get infected at Trump rallies that will not help him. If he gets infected despite his prophylactic use of hydroxycholorquine (now removed from FDA list of usable treatments for covid) that will not help. I also think the two recent supreme court defeats for Trump are worrying for him. Much of his evangelical right supporters know he is a godless son of a bitch but have been willing to overlook that in the expectation of positive outcomes from their perspective. If it turns out that even with Trump in place and with his packing of the supreme court with right justices he is still unable to reverse things like LGBT protections and stuff like wade row I think some of this base might start to question their support for him. Having said all that only a fool would write him off.
Are the dems ahead in the polls?
gee, where have I seen that before?
