Tim Drayton wrote:First of all, you are basing your argument on the premise that if Gibraltar reverted to Spain it will turn into a black hole and there will be no more employement (sic) there. This is an obvious fallacy. If Gibraltar returned to Spain, it would continue to function as a town where commercial activity takes place and employment is generated. What you would actually have to find is the net job loss (or gain) i.e. you will have to compare the loss of these 12,000 existing jobs with the number of jobs Spaniards would have in Gibraltar if it became part of Spain, and this could even conceivably be a net gain if Gibraltar ends up providing more Spaniards with jobs after it reverts to the country.
Secondly, the population of Spain is about 46 million. Assuming that half of these people are of working age, that makes 23 million. So, even if 12,000 jobs were to be lost, that would amount to 0.05% of the total number of jobs needed. No big deal. I suspect if you did a poll of Spaniards, it would be a price they would be prepared to pay to get Gibraltar back.
Thank you for returning the thread to it's origin. Although, strictly speaking, that of course could only have been truly achieved with a suitable remark about the lovely Kaiane Lopez, who is the nicest Mayor I've seen in my lifetime.
That was, after all, what led to all of this.
Firstly I would say that I have been to Gibraltar many, many times and know people who live and were born there and I have worked with one or two. Their British patriotism and desire to remain part of the UK would put many who actually live in it to shame. I can absolutely assure you that there is no way they are ever going to give in to whatever is directed at them by Spain.
History suggests that Spain's main "weapon" has been either to completely close the border or to inhibit movement there to the point of virtual stasis. Either way, it obviously impacts directly upon employment.
I don't wish to cross-pollinate but the statistical argument you employ is one often used by Remainers***. "It's only a piffling percent". The truth though is less obvious and more compelling. The unemployment rate in that region (Andalusia) is the worst in the EU. 34.8%. The effect of denying thousands of people their jobs in Gibraltar would be locally horrendous. I suspect it would lead to civil unrest. Just my opinion, of course.
*** Whilst "only" 4% or so of EU exports are sent to the UK that percentage is actually concentrated in just a few countries. As it happens, the wealthiest and most influential. The effects of loosing that trade would result in billions of € in lost revenue and thousands of jobs. I hesitate to say that it's lying with statistics but it's certainly misleading - just a teeny bit.
