Cyprus-Forum.com

[Robin Hood]

Robin im not the least interested in either the end or the beginning. All i know is that the pound in my pocket since Brexit has diminished in value.looked at your pension lately ? Most people are not like you , they are more likely to feel the pinch whilst living overseas or o holiday.
The mighty Sterling is no longer and the steady decline continues.
This is reality.

Milti ..... I live in the real world! Yes, my income has dropped and all I get is just a slight increase on a basic UK pension and I mean slight. So I would say you are far better off than I am. In Cyprus I can live on it and all the time we have a bit left at the end of the month, then I don't have a problem. But having an engineering background I like to know how things work, if someone is going to screw me then I like to know how ..... beforehand. I made the mistake of trusting financial 'experts' and it cost me ...... never again.

You believe what you want but the REALITY is very different to that most people believe when it come to the financial and banking system. I like to know how, although there is nothing I can do to change it, but there are those that are trying.

CBBB:

Robin doesn't do reality, he lives in his own parallel universe where the rules are different.

Of course just your opinion, although I don't remember ever having met you! On the contrary I live in the real world and have acquired my knowledge over many years. You just demonstrate that you really are ignorant! You are a member of the flat earth society when it comes to money creation, banking and the financial system, you obviously know little about it, if anything. Try talking to a banker ..... you will find he/she will agree with me on the subject!

[Pyrpolizer]

RH,
Have you considered the possibility that the GBP had an over-inflated value the years before Brexit just because of the speculators?
I mean if it's true (as you beleive) that is now losing it's value because of the speculators, why shouldn't the reverse be true in the years before that?

NB. I personally don't beleive the reason is or was the speculators, but regardless I would like to hear your reply on the above question.

[miltiades]

Currency speculating is by no means a one way traffic.
Adverse conditions determine which way the speculators will go, not always but on average. Such adverse conditions such as the Brexit result have directly affected the value of Sterling and will continue to do so in the months ahead.
The one pound one euro time is approaching in earnest, there is no way that any speculating will avert this ..

Brexit was a disaster for Sterling, and it will fully materialize once the UK is out of the EU.
However we ....have our country back, no longer will we be accountable to the ...Germans !!
We are a free trading nation and lets not forget we have allready established trading with ....Turkey !!

[Robin Hood]

RH,
Have you considered the possibility that the GBP had an over-inflated value the years before Brexit just because of the speculators?
I mean if it's true (as you beleive) that is now losing it's value because of the speculators, why shouldn't the reverse be true in the years before that?

NB. I personally don't beleive the reason is or was the speculators, but regardless I would like to hear your reply on the above question.

I agree with you ..... yes, it works both ways. You appear to be saying that those that complain they are losing money ..... are not losing anything because it was over valued anyway? I think that is what 'The Markets' call ..... a correction?

Rapid changes in value are down to speculators but the long term decline in any currency's value also entails changes in economics and the banks creation of debt (Inflation). What is 'over inflated' ? Who determines that figure? The Pound like all the major western currencies is a fiat currency, it is not backed by wealth. 30-40 years ago there was no such thing as a 'currency market' so speculation did not come into the equation. If you watch the video, currency speculation is the largest of ALL the markets and it is traded at a rate of around 40 trillion dollars a day. It is the most fluid and unstable of all the markets ............ but contributes nothing to the REAL economy.

[miltiades]

Robin, as much as I respect ypur right to defend the Brexit result I must vehemently dissagree with your analysis. Stetling begun its downward trend followimg the Brexit results. It is Brexit that has adversely affected Sterling NOT
speculators, incidentally they are called traders.
Brexit is the ONLY reason.

[Robin Hood]

Robin, as much as I respect ypur right to defend the Brexit result I must vehemently dissagree with your analysis. Stetling begun its downward trend followimg the Brexit results. It is Brexit that has adversely affected Sterling NOT
speculators, incidentally they are called traders.
Brexit is the ONLY reason.

I can see how you look at it ..... I just see the cause as not Brexit, that was the signal the speculators reacted to. I am sure most of them will have speculated a remain vote but got it wrong and then panicked. To me their reaction was what caused the fall in the pound, not the vote. Had there been no speculators, as would have been the case 40 years ago, then the reaction would have been long term as each part of the Brexit plan came into force. In other words actual economics not speculation!

Ok, let's stop all referendums, complaints about Brexit, wild speculative claims from both sides? Would it correct the fall in Sterling? NO! Would it help the GBP recover ? NO?

So, let us stop the speculators speculating? Would it correct the fall in Sterling? YES! Would it help the GBP recover ? Maybe over the long term but immediately? NO?

Any change would now be down to economics, the UK's performance over time.

So in my eyes I see the Brexit vote result as the flag that started the race ........... but it is the drivers of that speculation that are the problem.

Speculators ..... are just that! You can give them any title you please but what they do is speculate. Unfortunately, the way the system works it is their speculation that creates a self fulfilling prophecy. They sell .... it goes down ..... they buy it goes up ...... they make money either way and the volume of sales ensures they make huge profits on very small fluctuations. Solution = a Tobyn Tax!

I am still convinced that the attack on the GBP is driven by politics not economics.

[miltiades]

The UK has made, by far , the biggest mistake, in economic terms, in it's modern history. Exiting the world's largest trading block will prove to have been an absolute blunder in economic terms. The one and only motivating factor was the
Mentality of , mostly the elderly, as well as the not too sophisticated working class little englanders who collectively and rather strongly were taken in by the nonsense spouted by demagogues such as the Clown and Farage, nonsense that the vast majority swallowed, such as " lets have our country back" " dont want to be ruled by unelected Europeans, and other purr garbage .
Speculators trade and base their trading on what they intetpret as eith good or bad in economic tetms. Obviously Btexit was seen as BAD.

Stetling will soon be down to below 1 euro. The mighty euro will continue to thrive and so will Europe while the UK will be forging trading deals with the likes of Turkey, Bangladesh, Pakistan and with all other ....industrial nations.
What an absolute blunder, the day will go down in British history as a black day.
Still, we got our ...country back mate!!!!

[Pyrpolizer]

Currency speculating is by no means a one way traffic.
Adverse conditions determine which way the speculators will go, not always but on average. Such adverse conditions such as the Brexit result have directly affected the value of Sterling and will continue to do so in the months ahead.
The one pound one euro time is approaching in earnest, there is no way that any speculating will avert this ..

Brexit was a disaster for Sterling, and it will fully materialize once the UK is out of the EU.
However we ....have our country back, no longer will we be accountable to the ...Germans !!
We are a free trading nation and lets not forget we have allready established trading with ....Turkey !!

I predict it will actually go down to around 0.8 after Brexit, after which it might recover according to the real economic figures.
Depends whether London will remain a financial center, or whether some other European city would take over.
Also depends on what profit the British might revive from breaking EU rules as for example over fishing in the seas.
I don't think old traditional British Industry will ever revive though considering that China has killed most of light industries (and their workforce and expertise) all over the world

[Robin Hood]

You are both speculating ...... you are guessing at what you think may happen.

IMO: it has been the negative attitude of those that wanted to remain that has in fact been the driving force behind the speculation. You don't seem to recognise that these speculators have one function ..... to make money and they will use any justification to speculate. They have no loyalties to any State ..... only to money!

You also make predictions seemingly completely without reference to the troubles of the Eurozone and Europe in general. Only today I listened to BBC who were saying that Catalonia is going ahead with an illegal referendum on independence from Spain and I believe Catalonia is one of the richest parts of Spain ..... did the Euro plunge?

Four EU banks have collapsed in the last eight months .... SHHHH ... and the EU has a lot more banking problems without taking into account that DB holds a massive derivatives exposure.

Whelan points out that nine years after the 2008 crisis, EU banks remain in horrendous condition. “There remains nearly €1 trillion in bad loans within the European banking system. This represents 6.7% of the EU economy. That’s huge.” He points out that banks’ bad loans as share of GDP for US and Japan banks are 1.7 and 1.6 percent respectively.”

(Note, they are referring to bad loans ...... not government/private debt ...... I can’t find any equivalent figure for the UK’s non-performing loans ...... and ‘European’ in this instance is a bit misleading)

Taken from this article which is an interesting read.

A Sinister War on Our Right to Hold Cash - By F. William Engdahl

(F. William Engdahl is strategic risk consultant and lecturer, he holds a degree in politics from Princeton University and is a best-selling author on oil and geopolitics, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook.” )

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/47687.htm

[Pyrpolizer]

You are both speculating ...... you are guessing at what you think may happen.

IMO: it has been the negative attitude of those that wanted to remain that has in fact been the driving force behind the speculation. You don't seem to recognise that these speculators have one function ..... to make money and they will use any justification to speculate. They have no loyalties to any State ..... only to money!

You also make predictions seemingly completely without reference to the troubles of the Eurozone and Europe in general. Only today I listened to BBC who were saying that Catalonia is going ahead with an illegal referendum on independence from Spain and I believe Catalonia is one of the richest parts of Spain ..... did the Euro plunge?

Four EU banks have collapsed in the last eight months .... SHHHH ... and the EU has a lot more banking problems without taking into account that DB holds a massive derivatives exposure.

Whelan points out that nine years after the 2008 crisis, EU banks remain in horrendous condition. “There remains nearly €1 trillion in bad loans within the European banking system. This represents 6.7% of the EU economy. That’s huge.” He points out that banks’ bad loans as share of GDP for US and Japan banks are 1.7 and 1.6 percent respectively.”

(Note, they are referring to bad loans ...... not government/private debt ...... I can’t find any equivalent figure for the UK’s non-performing loans ...... and ‘European’ in this instance is a bit misleading)

Taken from this article which is an interesting read.

A Sinister War on Our Right to Hold Cash - By F. William Engdahl

(F. William Engdahl is strategic risk consultant and lecturer, he holds a degree in politics from Princeton University and is a best-selling author on oil and geopolitics, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook.” )

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/47687.htm

Robin,

I will only reply to the first half as I don't have much time.

a) You seem to ignore the fact that speculators as traders do 2 things buy and sell. The easiest thing in trading (ask Milti he knows) is to buy. The most difficult thing is to sell with profit. It's not as easy as you think with the speculators doing the job with computers. Trading with computers still carries with it the fundamental principle that the easiest thing is to buy and the most difficult thing is to sell with a profit.
Telling us that the speculators do as they please pushing the values down as they please (as if they gain from selling at lower prices) is fundamentally wrong, sorry.

b)If Catalonia gets independence and then joins the EU automatically (it cannot do otherwise anyway) what's the problem (economically) for the EU?? zero minus zero=zero, no?
Now imagine Brexit, and then Scotland voting to remain in the EU. Woww! That would mean a totally separate country. Borders and millions Euros in building and controlling physical borders, restricting move of goods and services and people and all sorts of bad economics.
Moreover most probably Scotland would need to adopt the Euro, or just issue it's own currency.
Now give me one reason why such news (which was REAL news a few months ago and might be REAL news again after Brexit) would not push the value of the GBP down to it's limits.