Cyprus-Forum.com

[Tim Drayton]

There was a similar argument from a Turkish Cypriot journalist interviewed recently on CyBC's Biz-Emeis programme (I can't remember the chap's name) who said, bearing in mind that, if it is approved in the referendum, the new constitution will only come into force after presidential elections in 2019, that things will have gone so badly by then if Erdoğan gets a 'Yes' in the referendum that he will certainly lose that vote, and this is why some big names in the AKP (e.g. Gül, Arınçi Davutoğlu) are staying on the sidelines. I am still hoping like mad for 'No'. Some people say that, in that case, Erdoğan will come down really hard on the opposition, as if he hasn't already. The state of emergency could then stay in place almost indefinitely. It looks like things will have to get worse in Turkey before they can get better.

[Tim Drayton]

The front cover of the latest Economist. My, how perceptions of Erdoğan in the West have changed.

[Jerry]

Link

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/2 ... ot-abandon

[Tim Drayton]

I wonder why the Economist says: 'A Yes is likely, but far from certain.' All the evidence I have seen suggests that in spite of all the intimidation and bias that has prevented the 'No' side from campainging properly, 'No' is slightly ahead. Is the Economist taking it as a given that the poll will be rigged?

[Londonrake]

BBC article today:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-39571165

[Tim Drayton]

BBC article today:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-39571165

Thanks for posting that. I think it is a very fair and balanced summary, although you have to bear with it a bit, because it starts out with the view from the Erdoğan worshipers.

[Tim Drayton]

There are reports of polling station officials from the CHP and HDP opposition parties that support a 'No' vote being arrested - under the state of emergency they can arrest anybody they want without citing grounds. A sure sign that there are plans to rig the poll, I would say.

[Lordo]

you are right there tim. he will certainly rig this vote and the next one too. things look very bad for some time to come.

[Tim Drayton]

President Trump called President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey on Monday to congratulate him on winning a much-disputed referendum that will cement his autocratic rule over the country and, in the view of many experts, erode Turkey’s democratic institutions.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/17/us/p ... .html?_r=0

So, there you have it. It has now happened. In the first place, Erdoğan technically didn’t win anything, because he wasn’t standing for election. There was a referendum on constitutional change in which, under the constitution in force at the time of the poll, Erdoğan had no business even campaiging. But, yes, we all know that this was really a vote on constitutional change that would cement Erdoğan’s de-facto dictatorial status, and dictator-loving Trump has immediately phoned up to congratulate him on his victory, even though the poll is still contested and the official result has yet to be announced and there is a widespread suspicion that the poll was won through stuffing ballot boxes with phony ‘Yes’ votes following a campaign based on widespread intimidation. But, no, none of this worries dictator-lover Trump. Be sure of one thing – if America wants a dictatorship in its client state of Turkey and wants that dictator to be Erdoğan, that’s what will happen – unless the Turkish people can get him out, that is.

[Tim Drayton]

The simplified version:

Nasty man likes nasty man.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AHQ7N9lEl_E