by Tim Drayton » Wed Aug 24, 2016 6:03 pm
From various pieces of circumstantial evidence, I believe that the Americans and Russians did a secret deal about a year ago. It looks like the deal is that existing borders are respected (no more Kurdistan) and Russian gets Syria - they will want to keep Assad in power - and the US gets Iraq. Turkey's territorial integrity will also be respected and the plan that once appeared to be mooted for some Turkish territory to be ceded to a potential Kurdistan seems to be off the table. Daesh will be history by the end of the year now that the two great powers are cooperating - there is a clear plan now to gradually surround Raqqa in Syria with Manbij having been recently taken and the assault having begun on Jarablus. Eventually, I expect there to be a pincer operation on Raqqa with American supported forces coming from the north and Russian supported regime forces from the south. Daesh have already been expelled from most of Iraq and morale is so low that the liberation of Mosul is expected to be fairly swift and surgical. I interpret Turkey's latest moves to bring the country publicly closer to the Putin and Assad regimes within this context. Turkey appears to be playing a small direct role in the Jarablus operation and, more significantly, the country has permitted Free Syrian Army fighters to enter Syria from its territory to launch their assault on Jarablus. In my view, the Islamofascist Turkish regime houses many closet sympathisers of Daesh and the regime is duplicitous in its approach to that genocidal movement. While Turkey is generally portrayed in the Western media as being a solid member of the anti-Daesh alliance, I think it is an unwilling participant, forced to do so because of its international alliances.