by Paphitis » Tue May 24, 2016 8:55 am
Anyway, these are my views in a nutshell. Not only are my views valid, but they are responsible and just. Copy and paste from another thread.
Firstly, extreme groups such as Al Nusra and ISIL will be defeated even comprehensively if we remove their funding and stifle their recruitment. The Coalition has proven to be quite successful at achieving these outcomes.
The Russian and Assad interventions have been counterproductive and act to increase recruitment. When populations are repressed then some people will join Al Nusra and ISIL because these extremists have been the most successful.
Some will join the Syrian Democratic Front which is supported by the West.
Some people have been under siege for 2 years or more. No food or medicine is being allowed in despite what was agreed to by The Syria Action Group. Civilians are resorting to eat grass, babies do not get any formula, hospitals are being bombed so they can't treat the Sunni populace.
200,000 people have been killed so far. If the Sunnis do not achieve some kind of acceptable solution, they will continue. I don't think there is any going back. It will continue even if they lose Ghouta and Aleppo, and Coalition Aircraft will shield these civilians from Airstrikes. There is nothing else that the Coalition can do but shield them until the find refuge and drop supplies, food and medicines. That is what I would anticipate and expect.
So their rebellion will still exist from the desert and countryside. There really is no choice for them. It is either fight, or die, or continue to live under a regime that doesn't even acknowledge their existence.
Not to mention the fact that there will be a lot of pissed off countries around looking for the next proxy and what we see right now is Yemen flaring up. Will it be as big or bigger than the conflict in Syria. Possibly it could be and there are going to be many external actors like Iran and Saudi Arabia. Maybe, Coalition and Russia might get involved again down the track, its difficult to know.
But we will be looking at mass murder on a grand scale just like we are seeing in Syria. Tens of thousands of people killed at least.
The only way out for the entire region is some kind of transition away from Assad otherwise the wars will just continue. Other countries are also in the firing line such as Yemen and Iraq. In Iraq, similar scenarios were unfolding which encouraged the existence of ISIL. The USA was a party to this with the previous US Client Iraqi regime, but it never supported the repression of Sunni tribes.
I know exactly what is at stake and quite frankly I do genuinely care and think it is disgusting what is occurring in Syria. I want it to stop and everything I say is my genuine belief that it will assist in the cessation of conflict and hopefully peace provided the Sunnis also have a future in that country.
My analysis is VERY valid. I don't do propaganda either.
To find another idiot, you might also need to look in the mirror if you believe that Russians and Assad Regime are putting an end to this conflict.
The only solution is transition. Then, all parties (Russians included), can work on destroying ISIL and Al Nusra much more efficiently. Targeting civilians and the Rebels is not the way to go. That will only perpetuate everything and provide ISIL with exactly what it needs to recruit more people.
The Russians can even install their own peacekeepers afterwards because let's face it, peace is not going to be easily achieved when there are Fathers out there who have lost their wife and all their children in this conflict. I can see how this could even crush someone's will to live. Can you imagine? This is the kind of stuff that perpetuates extremism, and I find it very difficult to criticize it if you think through the ramifications and pain. I am not trying to be deliberately over-dramatic, but these types of human tragedies are common place in Syria and fuel the war. It is getting ridiculous now when you tell these people that Assad is the lesser of 2 evils when he has been caught with his pants down with leaked documents explicitly and graphically describing the torture and murder of 10,000 Sunni prisoners not to mention the Sarin Gas attacks a couple of years ago.
There are currently millions of displaced Syrians registered with the UNHCR.
We all want this to stop. I believe what Russia is doing is making things much worse. might can not prevail over millions of people who feel an injustice. It is inevitably unwinnable for Assad!
The Coalition has at least recognized these hard realities, because we have had a history of going into countries thinking our Firepower can prevail over entire populations. The fact is, it can't because people will not stop ever.