Tim Drayton wrote:The comparison with China is not particularly valid. If you study modern Turkish history, you will soon see that Turkey was made into a US client state in the days of the Cold War following World War II. Just to cite one piece of evidence, there was uproar at one point in the 1950's when it was discovered that US intelligence actually had a room staffed by American intelligence officers at the headquarters of the Turkish intelligence agency and all documents were being passed through this room! That was the extent to which the sovereignty of a supposedly independent nation had become subordinated to the USA.
The evidence is all circumstantial, but you will find almost everyone in Turkey, regardless of their political persuasion, believes that the 1980 coup in that country was at least indirectly orchestrated by the USA. This was a coup that led to the summary rounding up of half a million people (some claim that this was the largest portion of a country's population to ever be rounded up and detained at one single time) all of whom were tortured, and hundreds of whom died in the process - an abuse of human rights that rivals the horrors committed by the Assad dynasty. These were simply people who had been active in politics including activists in the ranks of legal political parties or in civil society, and aim appeared to be to crush all independent movements and voices in the country. The ground began to be laid after that coup for the Islamisation of Turkey. Most notably, the Gülen sect began to operate unhindered as its people infiltrated the police, judiciary and civil servce and possessing a seemingly limitless budget, almost certainly provided by the rulers of Saudi Arabia and other wealthy Gulf countries who were fearful of the alternative model that a successful, democratic and secular Turkey could provide for their own populations as opposed to the feudal systems they were subjected to under unelected ruling families. Many serious steps were taken in the direction of Islamisation, particularly in the form of infiltration of many key ministries by Islamists, under the watch of Turgut Özal, the first Prime Minister after the 1980 junta started to move in the direction of a return to constitutionality and he was promoted by that junta, later going on to become President. It is notable that Özal, who had previously been a civil servant, went to America on a lengthy training programme a few years before the coup. It is hard to believe that this is just a coincidence. So, no, I cannot accept that the USA has played no part in the path charted by Turkey away from secularism and in the direction of Islamism. This has been conscious US policy for the past four decades. It was part of a Cold-War doctrine of using religion to keep people stupid and stop them thinking and moving to the left.
If Turkey is now ruled by an increasingly dictatorial Islamist under whose rule a blind eye is turned even to the activities of an extremist organisation like Daesh in the country, or indeed support is even forthcoming for this organisation, this means either that America has declined as a world power to the extent that it is no longer in charge in Turkey or else it supports this dictator in one of its client states, whatever public pronouncements to the contrary it may make. The Gezi Park protests of three years ago was in my view an equally legitimate popular protest against the increasingly totalitarian regime in the country as the protest against the Assad dynasty that erupted in Syria in 2011. I have no doubt that if the very Western alliance that supported the anti-Assad revolution had given the same support to Gezi, the slide towards totalitarianism in Turkey could have been halted and even reversed. It did not give this support, though. It all reeks of hypocrisy unless you understand that it is all rooted in self-interest.
You are right that capital flows to where it will get the greatest return and this does not amount to the voicing of political support. However, you are putting the cart before the horse. I believe that Turkey's special status as being in a customs union with the EU without being an EU member and thus subject to all kinds of stifling regulation was deliberately engineered by and for the benefit of global capital, and the flow of capital started once that situation had been engineered. And I believe that global capital is very concerned about who controls the country and wants to see that its interests there are looked after. The situation does not resemble that in China.
Tim,
I think your claim that Turkey is a client state is hugely exaggerated. Turkey is a member of NATO.
The sharing of intelligence is common between NATO allies. For instance, there are American, Canadian, Australian and Kiwi attachments to the British SBAs in Cyprus and most intelligence is shared between them.
The Americans can support a Coup in Turkey. But they can no longer instigate it. It would be a pointless exercise and only drive anti American sentiment, it is much better to let the Turkish Military to do its thing and if the majority of the Turkish Officer ranks support the removal of Srdogan, then America will do its thing behind the scenes.
The Americans would no doubt have other political allies in Turkey as well as those which directly oppose Erdogan.
But as for Erdogan being increasingly Islamists, I don't think the Americans are too worried about it. Erdogan has his shelf life, and eventually the people will depose this Government. It's a case of letting the Turkish people decide, not conduct or instigate a Coup. America won't do it. They won't do it in Greece or any other country either. We are in a different era.
China is a valid example in my opinion. For as long as the Chinese are hosting our factories and supplying manufactured goods by Western owned companies at a fraction of the cost, we are content to accept and talk to a Communist Regime which is even more brutal than Erdogan by a long shot.
We would naturally have arguments and disagreements with them on significant issues, but for as long as Billions worth of trade continues and billions worth of 2 way investment, no one in the West is going to care.
But in the end, Erdogan is not a permanent fixture in Turkey. The Chinese Communist Party has a far greater stranglehold but over time, things will always evolve there as well.
