Pyrpolizer wrote:Paphitis wrote:The CNG is in a position to be able to engage in various activities against the occupying power, which in my view, can also include a coordinated advance against the occupying power across the Green Ceasefire line. Such an action would need to take into consideration the International responce to such an act and its ramifications, even though International Law favours the RoC. That is the job of the political leadership, not the CNG.
What would be better, if hostilities commence is that the Turks start it, and my view is that the CNG has enough strength to make significant advances into the occupied areas and quite possibly find themselves in control of a lot of territory.
In fact, I think the Balance of Power is with the CNG with its 100,000 troops fully mobilized, great Air Defence, Armour, and Mechanized Infantry which can operate in small numbers and negate the effectiveness of the TAF.
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The Turks were and still are constantly provoking for a new war. Not only in Cyprus but in Greece as well. Do you know how many civilians they shot dead in cold blood just because they crossed a few meters inside the neutral zone? What for do you think?
Have you followed the events when Isaac and Solomou were killed in cold blood? Do you know how much army they gathered hidden a few meters behind, just in case the crowd would get mad and start crossing "in peace"??
Secondly it seems to me you don't know much about how wars get started. Do you think mobilizing 100k reservists would have even 1 millionth of a chance to go unnoticed? Turkey was preparing the invasion for years and it took it almost a month to start sailing in 1974.
If we start mobilizing they would start too, and they will even provoke the start of a new war. The minimum they would ever achieve after a mini or prolonged war is recognition as a separate country. As for us advancing -hahaha-do you know the strategic value of Pendadaktylos range that they have in HAND? By just shooting from the mountain any idiot can encounter 100 more enemy soldiers.
The only thing the NG could ever do is a sudden attack with commandos to take Famagusta, this was always possible and even suggested at least by one of the NG ex-Generals in the past. Problem is even if successful it will not remain unanswered, in fact it will escalate to full scale war within a week! The occupying army will simply get the opportunity it was always seeking.
In a nutshell the NG is a defending force that can and will cause severe damages to the occupying Turkish army if they try to advance. as for the Turkish Airforce it might well lose half it's fleet with all those mirage missiles. Such a war could last from a week to a month before
the Super powers intervene and the most likely outcome would be thousands of casualties from both sides. As for anyone advancing, when wars get started the enthusiastic and the brave ones die first, and then it's all shooting and standstill. I served in the army studied the timeline of lots of wars including that of Vietnam, the scenarios are all similar.
Pyro,
the Turks are very clever politically, and I agree, that their military has superior leadership as well.
Turkey however, is more talk than walk. They know, that by provoking Greece and Cyprus, that the Greeks and Cypriots won't do anything about it. Therefore, they have your measure and act with impunity.
However, if someone like Greece ups the anti, like they have on a couple of occasions under Andreas Papandreou in particular, they start pissing themselves and they retreat with their tails between their legs. Their military leadership is fully aware of the ramifications, and that that a victory against Greece is less than assured. The same applies in Cyprus. But Turkey trumps Greece and Cyprus politically on all fronts. They push and prod right to the last, but no follow through.
They will keep provoking until the point they push their luck a little too far.
Turkey does not have 1 million troops which they could mobilize against either Greece or Cyprus. In Cyprus they only have 40 odd thousand plus some reservists.
I am also aware how a politician killed Isaac and a bunch of TC or Turkish gangs beat Solomou to a pulp. That was not the Turkish Military.
No I don't know how many civilians they shot when they advanced a few meters. But this if true, is no measure of the CNG's capability in the event of fully blown out hostilities.
Once again, Cypriots are very good at talking themselves down. They mention Turkey's 1 million strong military and its 500 fighters etc, but please spare me. The truth is, only about 50,000 of them will ever be involved in a conflict in Cyprus, and the International Community, United Nations, as well as NATO will get involved within a matter of days and call for a ceasefire immediately.
Firstly, the Americans have a big issue over their weapons being used in Cyprus against the Cypriot people. The Americans are notorious for this. Turkey will face sanctions.
When the Americans sell their arms, they want a say on how they are to be used. If for instance they will be used against the Kurds or Cypriots, then there is a price for that. Cyprus is an EU country, and the Americans as far as I can tell, are eager to either support a Kurdish Federal State in Syria or even a Republic. That is how I see things developing.
Turkey is increasingly isolating itself from the West, especially because of Syria. It is currently the weakest link in Syria, and not doing very well with the Russians, and not playing ball with the coalition because of the Coalition/Kurdish alliance.
The biggest advantage the CNG has is that it is on its own turf. NATO will not support Turkey or invoke Article 5. Turkey has everything to lose but nothing to gain.