Tim Drayton wrote:Pyrpolizer wrote:the fact is the Sterling started falling from the last quarter of 2015 both against the Euro and the US$. In fact against ever major currency e.g the Jap YEN
http://www.x-rates.com/graph/?from=GBP&to=EUR&amount=1
It's obvious this fall was due to other factors other than the question of brexit. if you have a look at charts then the devaluation of sterling after the referendum perfectly matches the path/trendline by which it was getting devaluated from say Oct Nov last year!!
It only stabilized a few months before the referendum and then started falling again! No so strange.
The referendum result just triggered the previously existing downfall of Sterling seeking a new stabilizing point.
Like I said before if it continues to fall non stop then seek the reasons to a really BAD ECONOMY (pre-existing)
The pound started sliding against the euro at the end of last year and the reason universally cited for this was uncertainty over the referendum. Remember that the pound shot up in the markets on the day of the referendum on the expectation that there would be a narrow victory for remain. This all suggests to me that the referendum was a major factor.
8 months before the referendum is a very long time to start a constant currency downfall Tim. Uncertainty reached it's peak 1-2 months before the referendum yet surprisingly it stabilized during that period. I don't agree with you that it shot up,on the average it just stabilized.
I can only agree that the expected referendum played a role but I suspect there were other more important reasons. MOST PROBABLY because the economic bubble started bursting. Notice it did not fall Vs the Euro alone. It fell against all major currencies
Notice exactly the same happened in Cyprus.The economic bubble started bursting from 2007. What happened in 2013 with the Banks and the haircut was just the final blow. In a nutshell the referendum was most likely the final blow to the UK economy caused by a pre-existing economic problem.