Cyprus-Forum.com

[Pyrpolizer]

Robin, with due respect do get your figures right. A day before the referendum the pound MMR stood against the Euro at 1.31.
What s happening now is that following the disastrous Brexit vote international investors have lost confidence in sterling and are moving their cash investments to the dollar, Euro or other lucrative currencies. It has always been this way.
As a qualified accountant, not an economist, I have been following currency movements for years now, the Euro mostly and in a smaller fashion the US Dollar.

The Brexit vote was the biggest economic disaster to engulf the UK economy.

Economic disaster?? If that were so then every country that devalues it's currency on purpose should be facing economic disaster.
Not at all, the devaluation of Sterling just reflects the new reality and while you personally lose (because you are an importer) exporters will boost their exports and gain
An economic disaster would be the case when the Strerling would fall at constant rate non stop. That would indicate a weak currency and a bad economy. If it stabilizes ANYWHERE then don't worry- be happy. The country as a whole will not lose anything.

[Pyrpolizer]

the fact is the Sterling started falling from the last quarter of 2015 both against the Euro and the US$. In fact against ever major currency e.g the Jap YEN
http://www.x-rates.com/graph/?from=GBP&to=EUR&amount=1
It's obvious this fall was due to other factors other than the question of brexit. if you have a look at charts then the devaluation of sterling after the referendum perfectly matches the path/trendline by which it was getting devaluated from say Oct Nov last year!!
It only stabilized a few months before the referendum and then started falling again! No so strange.
The referendum result just triggered the previously existing downfall of Sterling seeking a new stabilizing point.
Like I said before if it continues to fall non stop then seek the reasons to a really BAD ECONOMY (pre-existing)

[Paul ZKTV]

the fact is the Sterling started falling from the last quarter of 2015 both against the Euro and the US$. In fact against ever major currency e.g the Jap YEN
http://www.x-rates.com/graph/?from=GBP&to=EUR&amount=1
It's obvious this fall was due to other factors other than the question of brexit. if you have a look at charts then the devaluation of sterling after the referendum perfectly matches the path/trendline by which it was getting devaluated from say Oct Nov last year!!
It only stabilized a few months before the referendum and then started falling again! No so strange.
The referendum result just triggered the previously existing downfall of Sterling seeking a new stabilizing point.
Like I said before if it continues to fall non stop then seek the reasons to a really BAD ECONOMY (pre-existing)

I Looked at this and it show the UK was sinking a bit in quicksand - and then everyone got the black death !!!

Robin, with due respect do get your figures right. A day before the referendum the pound MMR stood against the Euro at 1.31.
What s happening now is that following the disastrous Brexit vote international investors have lost confidence in sterling and are moving their cash investments to the dollar, Euro or other lucrative currencies. It has always been this way.
As a qualified accountant, not an economist, I have been following currency movements for years now, the Euro mostly and in a smaller fashion the US Dollar.

The Brexit vote was the biggest economic disaster to engulf the UK economy.

Economic disaster?? If that were so then every country that devalues it's currency on purpose should be facing economic disaster.
Not at all, the devaluation of Sterling just reflects the new reality and while you personally lose (because you are an importer) exporters will boost their exports and gain
An economic disaster would be the case when the Strerling would fall at constant rate non stop. That would indicate a weak currency and a bad economy. If it stabilizes ANYWHERE then don't worry- be happy. The country as a whole will not lose anything.

well being a bizness man who dont have a degree in paperwork ,it all sounds wonderful if you are germany . but if you import a lot more then you export aint you buggered ??

[Pyrpolizer]

Robin, with due respect do get your figures right. A day before the referendum the pound MMR stood against the Euro at 1.31.
What s happening now is that following the disastrous Brexit vote international investors have lost confidence in sterling and are moving their cash investments to the dollar, Euro or other lucrative currencies. It has always been this way.
As a qualified accountant, not an economist, I have been following currency movements for years now, the Euro mostly and in a smaller fashion the US Dollar.

The Brexit vote was the biggest economic disaster to engulf the UK economy.

Economic disaster?? If that were so then every country that devalues it's currency on purpose should be facing economic disaster.
Not at all, the devaluation of Sterling just reflects the new reality and while you personally lose (because you are an importer) exporters will boost their exports and gain
An economic disaster would be the case when the Strerling would fall at constant rate non stop. That would indicate a weak currency and a bad economy. If it stabilizes ANYWHERE then don't worry- be happy. The country as a whole will not lose anything.

well being a bizness man who dont have a degree in paperwork ,it all sounds wonderful if you are germany . but if you import a lot more then you export aint you buggered ??

In a healthy economy you will lose in the short run but you will regain your loss in the long run and continue gaining for ever.
Notice I posted another response pointing that the British Economy might not be as healthy as we think.
Cyprus will be praying for you if this proves true

[Tim Drayton]

... lobby their MPs in their thousands not to repeal the accession act and put a stop to this madness.

Government lawyers are saying that Article 50 can be invoked under royal prerogative - this means the prime minister gets to invoke it by herself. There are two pending lawsuits to settle this issue. It is far from certain at the moment whether it will be up to a parliamentary vote, although I sincerely hope that it will.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... awyers-say

[Tim Drayton]

There is some information here about the lawsuits to try to prevent the government invoking Article 50 without a vote in parliament:

Mishcon de Reya, a top London law firm, said it’s representing a group of unidentified clients threatening legal action against the British government if it tries to initiate the process of leaving the European Union without consulting parliament.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... ament-vote

[Tim Drayton]

This was an earlier statement issued by Mishcon de Reya:

"The referendum held on 23 June was an exercise to obtain the views of UK citizens, the majority of whom expressed a desire to leave the EU. But the decision to trigger article 50 of the Treaty of European Union, the legal process for withdrawal from the EU, rests with the representatives of the people under the UK constitution.
The government, however, has suggested that it has sufficient legal authority. Mishcon de Reya has been in correspondence with the government lawyers since 27 June 2016 on behalf of its clients to seek assurances that the government will uphold the UK constitution and protect the sovereignty of parliament in invoking article 50.
If the correct constitutional process of parliamentary scrutiny and approval is not followed then the notice to withdraw from the EU would be unlawful, negatively impacting the withdrawal negotiations and our future political and economic relationships with the EU and its 27 member states, and open to legal challenge. This legal action seeks to ensure that the article 50 notification process is lawful."

[miltiades]

Robin, with due respect do get your figures right. A day before the referendum the pound MMR stood against the Euro at 1.31.
What s happening now is that following the disastrous Brexit vote international investors have lost confidence in sterling and are moving their cash investments to the dollar, Euro or other lucrative currencies. It has always been this way.
As a qualified accountant, not an economist, I have been following currency movements for years now, the Euro mostly and in a smaller fashion the US Dollar.

The Brexit vote was the biggest economic disaster to engulf the UK economy.

Economic disaster?? If that were so then every country that devalues it's currency on purpose should be facing economic disaster.
Not at all, the devaluation of Sterling just reflects the new reality and while you personally lose (because you are an importer) exporters will boost their exports and gain
An economic disaster would be the case when the Strerling would fall at constant rate non stop. That would indicate a weak currency and a bad economy. If it stabilizes ANYWHERE then don't worry- be happy. The country as a whole will not lose anything.

Of course I realize that one should first consider the nation as a whole and not his or hers own personal financial loses. One reason why I never moaned a great deal when Cyprus faced its own economic disaster in 2013 when thousands of people had their savings " stolen" by the banks / government.

As a business man naturally my own financial circumstances become my primary concern, as it is perfectly natural for all people.

I can not see any real tangible benefit that the nation as a whole has benefited or will benefit by leaving the EU. Statements made by the Brexit campaign have now been either withdrawn, as in the case of the 350 million that our NHS will benefit by exiting the Union, proven to be total false claims as in the case of EU immigration.

Early morning and the pound has already dropped down to 1.288 Dollars and 1.166 Euros respectively. Will the down fall stop any time soon, will the pound recover ? I do not think so.

[Robin Hood]

Milti:
Apologies - Typing error yes it was 1.31 just before Brexit - http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=EUR&view=1W

Kikapo:

Robin, may I ask you please, were you for the UK leaving the EU or are you just against the EU in general, and if the answer is one or the other, or both, then why have you retired in an EU country for one, and secondly, why haven't you been living in the UK all this time to stand on your principles? Thanks.

Firstly I didn’t vote, been away far too long.

In practical terms, as a geriatric focussing only on self interst, I would have voted to ‘Remain’, if in doubt do nothing, we go down with the ship or someone comes to our rescue! Simple choice?

But not being as shallow as to just think about what suited me personally, my non-geriatric side worked out that the EU ship was already sinking so better to take the risk and jump for the lifeboat 15 meters below in unknown waters. The problem I foresaw was that the captain of the ship would only give me a life jacket AFTER I had jumped. Big dilemma ......... do I rely on the Captain of a sinking ship ........ or my own reasoned perception?

I am NOT against the EU! I am opposed to a Federal State of Europe where a self appointed President tells me what to do ..... to me that is a dictatorship. The allies fought a war to avoid just that situation. As I see it Germany was defeated but immediately changed tactics and over the last 60 years, in cooperation mainly with the French, decided to achieve it by other means. They LIED! They said they wanted a European Economic Community, a sort of free trade agreement.

Then, very slowly, step by step, they created an ‘EU Commission’ to run things for their benefit not the other countries of Europe. The people of Europe have no say as to who is on this commission or who the various Presidents are. I see that as a dictatorship, not a Union.

When I came here Cyprus was not in the EU or the Eurozone. It was a friendly little island with some quaint concepts, a ‘Del Boy’ type attitude that suited me as I have never been a ‘yes-man’ or a conformist just because I am told to conform. My first question was always “Why?” I tend to work things out for myself and Cyprus allowed me to do that. In the 23 years Cyprus has been home for me, both Cyprus and its people have changed and unfortunately, mostly not for the better.

Although based in the UK, much of my work was in Europe. When I was made redundant in 1984, it became very obvious that engineering/industry was in decline. The financial system was what was going to make the UK GREAT again. The tax system made getting on your bike and getting work anywhere, punitively expensive. Self employed ..... and not allowed to claim expenses for ‘living away from home’ made contract work impossible. So I went abroad.

From then on, I only ever went back to the UK every 3-4 months and decided it was in decline socially as well as industrially ............ so we chose to move to Cyprus. Although I would maybe have done things differently, certainly on the financial front, I have never regretted the move.

So, unlike Milti’s concept that all those that voted ‘OUT’ were a bunch of Geriatric, little Englanders, dumb, dribbling, toothless morons, only interested in ‘getting our country back’ ..... some of us actually did give it a lot of thought and had experience on our side. The ones that didn’t were the ones that decided a ‘leave’ vote would never happen. No plan ‘B’ is what has damaged the UK and the continuous belly-aching of the ‘remainers’, not Brexit! But it was inevitable that Junker and his associates would not make it easy and that they would set out to punish the UK to prevent contagion ...... his plan does not seem to be working too well, the natives are revolting!

If you want to see what happens when you chicken-out and conform ..... take a good look at Greece ..... and to a lesser degree, Cyprus, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Malta and other Mediterranean countries, for them it will slowly get worse.

[Tim Drayton]

the fact is the Sterling started falling from the last quarter of 2015 both against the Euro and the US$. In fact against ever major currency e.g the Jap YEN
http://www.x-rates.com/graph/?from=GBP&to=EUR&amount=1
It's obvious this fall was due to other factors other than the question of brexit. if you have a look at charts then the devaluation of sterling after the referendum perfectly matches the path/trendline by which it was getting devaluated from say Oct Nov last year!!
It only stabilized a few months before the referendum and then started falling again! No so strange.
The referendum result just triggered the previously existing downfall of Sterling seeking a new stabilizing point.
Like I said before if it continues to fall non stop then seek the reasons to a really BAD ECONOMY (pre-existing)

The pound started sliding against the euro at the end of last year and the reason universally cited for this was uncertainty over the referendum. Remember that the pound shot up in the markets on the day of the referendum on the expectation that there would be a narrow victory for remain. This all suggests to me that the referendum was a major factor.