But this senile old fool knows his economics ...........
Maximus;
I made some money too.
I’m pleased for you, I wish I had that sort of money to gamble with.
Don’t forget that for every seller of pound there has to be a buyer too.
Not strictly true. If you took a short on (
a bet) the anticipation it would fall, and it did, then the Institution (
let’s say JP Morgan) would pay out for the loss because they didn’t think it would happen. If it didn’t drop you lose your stake.
But it did drop! You make £110m on the deal and it goes into your bank account. It has not entered the economy it has sort of been put ‘
on the shelf in the bank with your name on it’. It only enters the economy when you spend it. If you use the money as more investments in stocks/bond markets/gold/property it has not entered the economy. It has gone into assets. Net result it has created no wealth ....... merely assets.
It works both ways, when the pound appreciates in value it benefits the people and the real economy on an international level, let’s take your typical expat who has retired abroad and receives a pension in pounds. When the pound is strong they get more bang for their buck when they exchange. Which directly benefits them through their purchasing power in the foreign country.
Absolutely correct. It only benefits people like me, where I have to convert my pounds every month into Euros to live. If the pound goes up, both me and Cyprus benefits, because I have got more Euros to spend into the economy. This month I lost but far less than you quote.
Another example, lets say for instance part of peoples pension funds are in the stock market. When speculators or traders push the value of these stocks up ( which they cant do all by themselves in most cases), it benefits the people. It generates wealth for them if they decide to cash in. Then, If these traders or market makers were not there, the markets would be less liquid and less competative. Meaning, that you could get a worse price for your investments on either the buy or the sell side.
It does not increase their wealth, it increases their assets. These are numbers on paper (
computers) and change constantly ..... literally every second. The trading computers use algorithms to predict rises and falls within milli-seconds of the event and respond instantly. Again it is all numbers in computers, not wealth because these numbers are not part of the economy, they are assets. As you say when the guy draws out his pension and starts spending, then it becomes part of the economy.
So they do contribute something, they are there to buy or sell from you whenever you want and add much needed liquidity. Furthermore, their capital is available to business's so they can expand their operations. Which can generate growth and benefit the real economy.
What this system contributes to an economy is minimal.
When a share price rises it impacts a company in one way only, it increases its perceived (
calculated) value and has no direct impact on the company’s operations. Market’s trade assets not wealth. This is why markets react instantly but you do not see such rapid changes in the real economy, because the real economy has a sort of kinetic energy which moves much more slowly. (
I tried to explain this before but it went over their heads!) The markets buy and sell assets. When a business needs money to expand its operations and create more jobs and thus more wealth it gets the necessary funds either by issuing more shares through ‘
The Markets’ or by borrowing from the bank. Commercial banks not investment banks.
If it is a share issue, you will go to your broker, give him a pile of money and he will give you a receipt from the Company. Share Certificates which have no value on it, incidentally money they never pay back .......... you as the investor have given them that money .
There is a demand for these shares because it is a sound company ...... so the share (
your receipt) is now a traded asset and rises in perceived value. This happens every time a new share issue enters the market’s, that is deemed a good bet. The markets dictate its initial value, then the demand decides its market value up or down, and this is inevitably done by computers. Then what you see is a rise in the markets .... if this is a FTSE 100 company and less directly if it is a much smaller entity.
If you borrow the money from a commercial bank (
Investment banks don’t lend money, they play with it .... most often they win .... sometimes they don’t!)...... then you give your commercial banker your bond (
an IOU) and put up some assets as collateral to secure the loan. The bank creates a credit account and you draw on that credit account and spend it into the economy. A bit like having a ‘super’ credit card account. But, for every pound you spend you have created both that amount of new money into the economy and an equal amount of debt to the bank. To repay the debt you have to take it out of the economy and give it back to the bank.
But where did the bank get the money from? The multi-trillion pound question!!!! The answer is ..... they simply create it as a debt, they don’t lend money ..... banks never lend money ..... they create debt. The process is so simple it defies belief ..... but it is provable beyond any doubt.
That is why I say these banks create very little in the economy so, let the Germans move the casino
(Investment) banks to Germany and we should get on with the rebuilding the UK economy based on wealth creation not casinos. Brexit has given the UK a unique opportunity but I feel we have no leader to implement the changes and set the pace. The UK, in fact the West in general do not have any real leader’s.
First job is to restructure the banking and financial system. But that is a whole new ball game and you need to understand the basics before the solution becomes obvious.