dinos wrote:Paphitis wrote:
Trumps approval ratings were worse in the last election.
He is starting to rally with an 8% increase in approval but I don’t expect Trump to actually win a single poll. But still win the election.
Polls were off by around 4% in 2016 against a rather hated candidate. Biden isn't saddled with the same baggage that Clinton was. The only drag on him is his (rapidly) declining cognition - the less he says, the better off he is.
His approval has been in a range between 43.3 in Aug '19 and 43.1 in aggregate polling as of yesterday. His numbers aren't good, and his messaging is clearly out of touch with reality. Socialism is very unpopular Stateside, but nobody will care about that when they have no work, are out of money, and their elected officials are telling them that they'll get lazy if given any aid. Trump's hit pieces on Biden saying that he's going to usher in extreme-left politics are unlikely to stick the landings.
The real detail is how he's doing in swing states because that's really what decides the election. He's behind Biden in 8 of 12 battleground states, and he's within the margin of error in 3 of the 4 he's ahead in.
Obviously, there's a long time between now and November and anything can happen. If Biden doesn't cuck out of the debates, he's going to look like a feeble old man next to Trump. Economic factors can change. Changes in the spread of the pandemic can change. Given the incumbent advantage, I'd give Trump a 55% chance of pulling it off again.
Honestly, I'd love nothing more than to see the pseudo-leftists (ice-cream commies, Starbucks marxists, etc) melt down at another Trump victory. They're going to wreck their own cities and hinder their own chances of living successful lives. Fuck 'em. I live in a suburb of NYC. People are leaving and coming out here, driving up housing prices (that's a separate story in and of itself, but a lot of cities like NYC, Seattle, Minneapolis, etc are buggered). That's going to make us some nice bank out here.
Hope you're well.....
I’m well under the circumstances Dinos. Very nice hearing from you and your insights on the situation in the USA coming from someone there.
I very nearly ended up in NYC with a Newark domicile home port in Jersey. I was going to be starting on the 4th of May. But then COVID changed that, hopefully it’s only temporary.
I hear you about NYC property prices. It’s literally a crime how young people can’t afford to buy in NYC. We have family in NYC who is an agent for Connors. Maybe you might know her (Irene) and we also have a close friend Olga, also an agent so we get good run downs on the market there. It’s quite brutal.
Back to the elections. Trump supporters are more likely to be in the closet. That’s because they want to protect themselves from the visions ice cream and cafe latte lefties who are really outside of reality and the most anti libertarians out there. Yes socialism in the US is frowned upon but people do need support right now because they could find themselves jobless and that would be beyond their control. The public is willing to accept Trump isn’t responsible for that, but he has to meet the people half way as well and support them under the present circumstances.
Biden will need to avoid any debate with Trump. The media are doing their best to portray him as not intelligent or crazy but clearly when he was debating Hillary, he proved himself to be extremely capable and coherent. The media only rely on some news grabs which are heavily edited to paint a different picture.
Trump will need to keep challenging Biden to debates on national TV. Biden must avoid at all cost and if he does it will hurt him but so would a debate on national tv.
I’m definitely with you on Trump. I think he is the most likely to drag the US back to the boom after COVID. He did that from 2016 up until COVID itself.
Being in NYC, you are in Democrat heartland though. Trump will get walloped there. The election to be decided in as few as 8 key swing states. Trump is the master at focusing on key areas. His last campaign was nothing short of pure genius but the media will never admit it.
He didn’t waste any time at all on NYC because his team knew the score.
