Londonrake wrote:Paphitis wrote:Tim Drayton wrote:Don't forget that they interfered in the British EU referendum, too. Putin wants to see the EU disintegrate because he feels he has irredentist territorial claims in Europe. He was stationed in East Germany for a long time, after all. It's a quesion of cui bono - I only see one party that has anything to gain.
Yes tim, I also appreciate the threat to EU Countries and NATO.
And it is especially dangerous now because USA might be AWOL.
Europe needs to stand very firm and united. France and Britain (Germany too) will need to pick up the slack until Trump shows signs of common sense.
I'm not disputing (pun!
) it but don't recall accounts of Russian interference in the EU referendum at the time. If there were then clearly they didn't reach the scandal proportions of the US. Furthermore, in my many exchanges with Remainers that aspect hasn't once been raised as a mitigating factor.
Despite attempts to elevate European security as being dependent upon the EU, it's collective engagements have been disappointing. It is of course NATO that's underpinned the West in that respect, for over 70 years. For me that remains the principle concern. Trump did recently join May in reaffirming support for the organisation but of course that conflicts with his campaign rhetoric. Time, as always, will tell.
There are quite large Russian ethnic minorities in the Baltic states (most notably Latvia). IIRC "planted" there by Stalin, in much the same way settlers have been in the north here. Whilst they seem to coexist peacefully with others there's always some reason or other that can be dug up to foment trouble if needed. Adoption of Russian as an official language perhaps? In the past I believe Putin has proclaimed the right to "defend" Russians everywhere. He would, I'm sure, not be averse to re-embracing those small states and (like Stalin's deal with Hitler) annexing them as part of Mother Russia. I suspect that talk of Russian tanks pouring into the likes of Poland again are for those with a vivid imagination though.
If there were an appetite to test Article 5 (and Personally I believe that to be very unlikely) then it would come in the Baltic. To not commit to the Article wholeheartedly would of course precipitate the end of NATO at a stroke. A paper Tiger. Tempting I imagine but pretty risky. Can't see it coming about myself but it could depend - like so much - on what Donald does next.
Georgia, Latvia and Lithuania are those who should have a fair amount to be be worried about.
Let me tell you that peace and stability is not something you can afford to downplay. NATO was formed for a reason culminating from the ashes of WW2 and also the Cold War.
It is incorrect how some label NATO as an imperialist American alliance. it isn't. The NATO Charter is purely Defensive and to maintain peace and stability within Europe's borders for its member States.
The premise that NATO will attack Russia is completely incorrect.
now is completely the right time to test Article 5. Not immediately now, because pootin thinks he's got a chance to have successfully conned the POTUS and is waiting to see if his con is successful which its unlikely to be. But after that, I fear there arew many countries which have a lot to be fearful of - georgia, latvia and Lithuania would be my first picks.
Russia has expansionist desires and has teamed up with Turkey. The unholy trinity.
Greece too from Turkey. Greece is vulnerable. It's a matter of time if this environment continues. Greek sovereignty and territorial integrity has relied on its relations with USA. if that is non existent, then Turkey could do something.
Peace and stability is a very fragile thing. So fragile that even japan is panicking and even paid Trump a visit before inauguration. That's because of north Korea and also to some extent China and South China Sea.
Australia just had high level meetings with japan on how to deal with the current situation because both countries are concerned. They have for decades relied on the peace and stability from their big ally.