Cyprus-Forum.com

[boomerang]

Tim, since the Turks downing the Russian Jet illegally over Syrian airspace, Turkey has been granting what ever the West and NATO wants, from using it's air bases to allowing more hardware on it's territory. Erdogan is basically being blackmailed to accept all these conditions in order to shield him from the Russian accusations of him helping ISIL. Erdogan is only safe for the time being, but the Americans will not be able to shelter him for too long and they will throw him under the Russian bus when the time is right. The Russians and the Americans got Erdogan by the ball, each holding one each. Erdogan's days are numbered and not as the President of Turkey, but as a free man.

Just a small point about your post. Most of it is fine but Turkey's shooting down of the SU-34 certainly was not illegal.

The other thing is the West will NOT throw Turkey under any bus. They have there back from the moment they instructed them to shoot down the Russian Jet.

Further to this, the West will protect interests in Turkey such as bases and other facilities.

1. The Russian Jet was shot over Syrian territory and not over Turkish territory, therefore, it was illegal, regardless if the Jet had been in the Turkish airspace for 17 seconds prior.
2. I was talking about the west throwing Erdogan under the Russian bus and not Turkey.
3. The west will protect it's interests in Turkey, but they don't need to protect Erdogan.

It doesn't matter when or where it was shot down. When was the trigger pulled on the missile is a better question to ask?

These Jets are doing well over 600 knots or in excess of 10nms/min. What is clear is that it had violated the airspace and was not responding to the ADIZ.

And no, the West don't have to protect Erdogan. The West can remove Erdogan at any time. They have all the Turkish Generals on side so they can orchestrate a Coup if they wanted to.

I beg to differ, the US did throw turkey under a bus...here is something to chew on...the reason the US hasn't thrown turkey under a bus is because russia would have picked her up, the last thing the US would have wanted...but now it's a different story since turkey burned her bridges...she just became a proper bitch to the west...there is no east and definitely no west with all this blackmailing re refugees with the EU...and there is nowhere turkey can turn to...
for example the US can demand she leaves Cyprus and take her citizens with her and turkey would have no choice but to obey, the bravado has finished...otherwise the US turns them over to the Russians...yes an unlikely scenario today, but tomorrow could be a different story.

so in short yes you could say the US threw turkey under a bus...

I wonder which blackmail they used on Erdogan to do such a stupid thing...

[Paphitis]

Tim, since the Turks downing the Russian Jet illegally over Syrian airspace, Turkey has been granting what ever the West and NATO wants, from using it's air bases to allowing more hardware on it's territory. Erdogan is basically being blackmailed to accept all these conditions in order to shield him from the Russian accusations of him helping ISIL. Erdogan is only safe for the time being, but the Americans will not be able to shelter him for too long and they will throw him under the Russian bus when the time is right. The Russians and the Americans got Erdogan by the ball, each holding one each. Erdogan's days are numbered and not as the President of Turkey, but as a free man.

Just a small point about your post. Most of it is fine but Turkey's shooting down of the SU-34 certainly was not illegal.

The other thing is the West will NOT throw Turkey under any bus. They have there back from the moment they instructed them to shoot down the Russian Jet.

Further to this, the West will protect interests in Turkey such as bases and other facilities.

1. The Russian Jet was shot over Syrian territory and not over Turkish territory, therefore, it was illegal, regardless if the Jet had been in the Turkish airspace for 17 seconds prior.
2. I was talking about the west throwing Erdogan under the Russian bus and not Turkey.
3. The west will protect it's interests in Turkey, but they don't need to protect Erdogan.

It doesn't matter when or where it was shot down. When was the trigger pulled on the missile is a better question to ask?

These Jets are doing well over 600 knots or in excess of 10nms/min. What is clear is that it had violated the airspace and was not responding to the ADIZ.

And no, the West don't have to protect Erdogan. The West can remove Erdogan at any time. They have all the Turkish Generals on side so they can orchestrate a Coup if they wanted to.

I beg to differ, the US did throw turkey under a bus...here is something to chew on...the reason the US hasn't thrown turkey under a bus is because russia would have picked her up, the last thing the US would have wanted...but now it's a different story since turkey burned her bridges...she just became a proper bitch to the west...there is no east and definitely no west with all this blackmailing re refugees with the EU...and there is nowhere turkey can turn to...
for example the US can demand she leaves Cyprus and take her citizens with her and turkey would have no choice but to obey, the bravado has finished...otherwise the US turns them over to the Russians...yes an unlikely scenario today, but tomorrow could be a different story.

so in short yes you could say the US threw turkey under a bus...

I wonder which blackmail they used on Erdogan to do such a stupid thing...

You need to explain the context.

Kikapu believes that Erdogan has been thrown under the bus. It is true that the West owes Erdogan NOTHING and they can abandon him at any time. it's easily done. But obviously it is better for the people to do that because if the West get involved then they are the bad guys in the eyes of the Turkish people.

If you believe the West is setting Turkey up for a war with Russia where it is unwilling to help Turkey, then that is not the case. Firstly, a war between Russia and Turkey is so unlikely. Russia cant afford for this to escalate to that level and the West might want it to escalate because other things might be at play such as Russian access to the straights.

I doubt the US has as much influence to force Turkey out of Cyprus but it can certainly make life very difficult for Turkey if it wanted to. It would help Cyprus if the US applied such pressure and you just don't know what is around the corner. Kerry is visiting Cyprus and the Americans are always in the media lately about the Cyprus Problem so maybe something is cooking. Maybe the Americans are looking at punishing Turkey for the bombardment of Kurds and for not controlling the cross border trade to Syria.

But setting Turkey up for a war and then turning their back on them is out of the question.

[boomerang]

it's not what I am saying...

what I am saying is this...now turkey has no choice but look west, can't play the other side no more...like for example turkey has been looking everywhere for alliances and if you remember asked putin for a seat at the SCO...putin of course refused...these games are over for turkey...can't look east, china not happy cancelling the tender, can't look north because of momma bear is waiting for her, can't look south, israel is spitting chips over the double crossing with the apology...

as much as Erdogan's dislike, turkey has no choice but to look west...and since the east, north and south bridges are burned, you can say yea, with the downing of the russian plane the US has thrown turkey under a bus...meaning total power/control/domination over turkey...no more no's from turkey anymore...and at the mercy of the EU, the US underdog...

now you understand...what ever the US says now, it goes...no ifs and no buts from turkey...

the question is how did they blackmail Erdogan to burn his bridges, because paphitis you do know the US doctrine regarding russia and china...
1...russia has resources and needs containment, cut out from the rest of the world as much as possible because of resources
2...china no resources so cut the ability to purchase...why do you think china build the island?...shipping lines...

so again what or how did they blackmail Erdogan in shooting the plane and burning his last bridge...not mentioning the reliance on russian gas...to make matters even worse turkey is looking for new suppliers...the expensive way for her energy needs...no more pipeline and discounts...that's a punishment in itself that Erdogan had to make... so yea the us threw turkey under a bus...

I just used Cyprus as an example...

[Paphitis]

it's not what I am saying...

what I am saying is this...now turkey has no choice but look west, can't play the other side no more...like for example turkey has been looking everywhere for alliances and if you remember asked putin for a seat at the SCO...putin of course refused...these games are over for turkey...can't look east, china not happy cancelling the tender, can't look north because of momma bear is waiting for her, can't look south, israel is spitting chips over the double crossing with the apology...

as much as Erdogan's dislike, turkey has no choice but to look west...and since the east, north and south bridges are burned, you can say yea, with the downing of the russian plane the US has thrown turkey under a bus...meaning total power/control/domination over turkey...no more no's from turkey anymore...and at the mercy of the EU, the US underdog...

now you understand...what ever the US says now, it goes...no ifs and no buts from turkey...

the question is how did they blackmail Erdogan to burn his bridges, because paphitis you do know the US doctrine regarding russia and china...
1...russia has resources and needs containment, cut out from the rest of the world as much as possible because of resources
2...china no resources so cut the ability to purchase...why do you think china build the island?...shipping lines...

so again what or how did they blackmail Erdogan in shooting the plane and burning his last bridge...not mentioning the reliance on russian gas...to make matters even worse turkey is looking for new suppliers...the expensive way for her energy needs...no more pipeline and discounts...that's a punishment in itself that Erdogan had to make... so yea the us threw turkey under a bus...

I just used Cyprus as an example...

Well the above context I have no problem with. If you call that being thrown under the bus, then fine by me. Erdogan can dislike the west all he wants but at the end of the day, he probably wants the west to save his ugly butt when he gets himself into trouble and that gives the west a lot of power over him so he can suck on a few western eggs from Western Chooks. he is just a pawn, that controls the straights (lucky for him).

Not only that, but Turkey is skating on thin ice with the West. Turkey has done many things that have pissed off NATO and US. Recently, they were bombarding the Kurds. Relations with Israel are ice cold as the Israelis have had a gut full. Israel has far greater influence than Turkey can ever imagine.

So Turkey is a lapdog now, and probably wouldn't dare bomb the Kurds again, because they need the west now against the Bear up north.

The US can throw Erdogan under the bus any time it wants. But they got something the west wants too so Turkey is being tolerated.

But NATO has to help Turkey. It's a major Article of the alliance. If they don't, then NATO becomes obsolete which is something the west will not allow to happen.

Hopefully, the chickens come home to roost in Cyprus. Will see what Kerry has to say for himself when he visits Cyprus.

[Tim Drayton]

The concluding paragraph of a perceptive analysis in today’s Guardian:

Now it seems that the western powers will cooperate with Russia in tacit upholding of Assad, in pursuit of the greater enemy, Isis. In other words, Turkey might just be isolated. In this latest affair, is there an element of provocation – that if Putin responds harshly to the downing of his aircraft, the Americans will be pushed into proclaiming a no-fly zone behind which Erdoğan can quietly deal with the enemies whom he wants to deal with, the Kurds, who now amount to the main challenge to his regime? He has been immensely successful so far, but is this the step that will bring him down, as his tame central Anatolian constituency begins to feel the winter cold? If there is one lesson for a ruler of Turkey it is this: do not provoke Russia.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... ign-policy

[Lordo]

russia would love terggy to leave nato and would probably offer her free gas, but ameriga is not so stupid. they have a lot invested in terggy and are not about to dump them under a bus, more likely a golden cage.

[Tim Drayton]

russia would love terggy to leave nato and would probably offer her free gas, but ameriga is not so stupid. they have a lot invested in terggy and are not about to dump them under a bus, more likely a golden cage.

I still think Erdoğan is the one they trust to deliver more of the same neo-liberal and pro-global capital policies, although having said that I start to detect Erdoğan moving back into the wings a little and giving more room for Davutoğlu, not that the latter's ideas are any less disastrous.

[repulsewarrior]

...indeed, what interests America is Turkey as a big powerful machine, which it is. Whatever can be said about Erdogan, he appears to be able to move it.

Money being the common factor, the "deal", someone like Obama does so well, it is not hard to believe that whether he thinks Erdogan is the idiot depicted in Wikileaks, he can still be motivated to provide results, being more a good manager, rather than boss. I find it funny that the oil on which Daesh bases its wealth is considered insignificant, and as such Erdogan's alleged corruption is dismissed; funny as in sad.

...in any case, Turkey has isolated herself once again, by her own choices, this imbroglio with Russia, as in the case with Turkey's other Foreign Policy, she is apt to go too far.

Erdogan will demonstrate his leadership, i suppose by finally closing their borders to the traffic that supports war against the rest of the world. He will manage refugees well, and in a manner where as a country, Turkey will be held in high esteem and emulated. After the Syrian hostilities, in this regard he is looking to place himself in a good position. What else can he do but serve, at this point.

[Tim Drayton]

News is coming in that the Iraqi armed forces, assisted by Shiite militia, have totally liberated Ramadi from Daesh. I would like to see this confirmed by reliable sources, but, if true, this could be the turning point in the fight against Daesh.

[Tim Drayton]

The BBC has a slightly different story:

Iraqi forces 'retake key Ramadi district'

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35038983