LR:
Do you really regard that as a likely scenario? Do you believe the Russian Rules of Engagement will specify that if any missiles are fired towards Syria then they are to attack and possibly sink the launching ship(s), involving the likely deaths of hundreds of crew? Do you believe that Vladimir Putin has put in the hands of a single ship's Captain the power to decide whether Russia and the USA go to war? No national leader would be so foolhardy and, as you point out, the man is certainly not noted for his spontaneous character or foolish nature. I ignore the fact that a sizeable chunk of the 6th Fleet is wandering around the Eastern Med at the moment. Including the likes of the USS Gerald Ford, which has 94 aircraft embarked. Russia has 24 at Khmeimim Air Base.
So, "what if?".
Russia goes to war with the USA? Over what? A couple of bases in Syria, because that's primarily what their presence in the country is about. I have little doubt personally that Putin quite probably regards Bashir Assad as a liability, a loose-cannon. Russia isn't in Syria for altruistic reasons. After decades of having a host of Med/ME client states ( Algeria, Egypt, Iraq, Libya, South Yemen) with associated trade links and military options that's their very last foothold.
Russian and the USA are not deliberately going to war over Syria. Which of course would be the inevitable and unavoidable result of such a premeditated action. Any chance of that I think will be down to some gross miscalculation/error. Even then I can't see it producing such a result.
I agree with you! A very, very unlikely scenario as you point out and your reasons are all perfectly logical and valid. But ............
What if? We saw what happened with the USS Donald in the Black Sea and the Carrier moored up off the Isle of white, although there was never an account that explained why it happened in either case. But the effect filmed by the crew on the Donald showed it to be dead in the water. But let us just suppose that the Russians
COULD do that? It does appear, although not verified, that many Tomahawks didn’t make it ........ again nobody is officially saying why.
They could conceivably stop the vessels at sea from a submarine or an aircraft, contact them and give them 30 minutes to abandon ship before the Russians blow them out of the water, which I believe an Iskander is capable of doing. All streamed live ....... maybe even on Twitter or Facebook!
The Russians would be giving the crew a full opportunity to avoid all casualties but two floating weapons platforms would be put out of action ........ permanently and without loss of life. Is that really any different from ringing up the Russians 30 minutes before they attacked the airfield and destroyed the Syrians ‘
weapons platform’, the airfield from which they are fighting an enemy?
I would see that in the same way you (
and I also) see this event. It seems the airfield is already back in action as little if any damage was done to the field itself. It was a slap on the wrist! Such action would be an act of war, as this attack was, but that fact is being laundered out in the MSM as
”Russia/Assad have claimed it was an act of war” but no suggestion that the western nations supporting Trumps action are recognizing the fact.
What troubles me more than anything is not the event itself but the attitude behind it! Paphitis always spouted about
‘we can do this’ or
‘we can do that’ and ‘....
we don’t need any body’s permission” ? That very much seems to be the US’s attitude at the moment and Trump made that very clear on TV. It is normal to gather facts first and then pronounce judgement before taking action. In my book this makes the US every bit as much of a rogue State as North Korea .......... threats are dangerous enough but to demonstrate that the US, as a nuclear power, will actually take unilateral action without the approval of the UNSC or even just the UNGA, I would say could easily trigger a pre-emptive attack from any nation that even feels threatened. What happens if the North Korean fat-man feels threatened and takes down swathes of South Korea or attacks Japan, or Pakistan, India, Israel perceive they are under threat?
The political/diplomatic blunder in this US action is far more serious than the event itself. McCain, Clinton and all the other Hawks are cock-a-hoop and piling praise on Trump for his courageous and prompt, no nonsense actions ....... is the US
THAT determined to Start WWIII? So they really believe they would not be affected?
Putin has shown remarkable patience with the endless tirade of unsubstantiated attacks on him by the US/UK/EU and one day he will run out of patience ..... that will be the day the Russian people feel insulted enough to call him to take action.
That is the way this sort of reckless, ill thought out action could so easily lead.