Cyprus-Forum.com

[Lordo]

you boys are talking out of your arses again. you see doom and gloom everywhere. it is chp and hdp that is gaining strength from this not mhp. so your celebrations are a little premature. but than again that is not unusual cause everything about you is premature.

[Tim Drayton]

you boys are talking out of your arses again. you see doom and gloom everywhere. it is chp and hdp that is gaining strength from this not mhp. so your celebrations are a little premature. but than again that is not unusual cause everything about you is premature.

Assuming there is a reasonably fair election (which I don't think is guaranteed), the forecast distribution of parliamentary seats based on the latest polls suggest that the CHP and semi-fascist MHP could form a coalition, and this will be the only alternative to a minority AKP government. So, we may see the MHP in the next government. Say what you like about Bahçeli, if he had been more compromising with the AKP after the June 7 poll, his party could be in coalition with them now with him deputy Prime Minister. Instead he stuck to his principles as to Erdoğan restricting himself to the role appointed to the president by the constitution and the reopening of the corruption investigations. Frankly, I admire that.

[Tim Drayton]

The latest poll shows all three climbing, in fact:

CHP 25.13 > 28
MHP 16.45 > 18.2
HDP 12.96 > 13.7

The AKP, on the other hand has slid a couple of percentage points below 40%. Since 40% is often touted as being the size of the party's core support, this means that they are gradually even losing some of the core supporters. Most of those will go to the MHP.

[Lordo]

The latest poll shows all three climbing, in fact:

CHP 25.13 > 28
MHP 16.45 > 18.2
HDP 12.96 > 13.7

The AKP, on the other hand has slid a couple of percentage points below 40%. Since 40% is often touted as being the size of the party's core support, this means that they are gradually even losing some of the core supporters. Most of those will go to the MHP.

Tim akp never got 40% in any election. it is only after distributing votes of parties who have not made it to above the dam system that they go beyond 40%. with a bit of luck ctp mhp and hdp will come to their senses and form the government and get rid of akp.

[Tim Drayton]

The latest poll shows all three climbing, in fact:

CHP 25.13 > 28
MHP 16.45 > 18.2
HDP 12.96 > 13.7

The AKP, on the other hand has slid a couple of percentage points below 40%. Since 40% is often touted as being the size of the party's core support, this means that they are gradually even losing some of the core supporters. Most of those will go to the MHP.

Tim akp never got 40% in any election. it is only after distributing votes of parties who have not made it to above the dam system that they go beyond 40%. with a bit of luck ctp mhp and hdp will come to their senses and form the government and get rid of akp.

The AKP got 49.83% of the vote in the 2011 general election.

The three parties you mention had enough seats to form a government after the June 7 elections, but the MHP made it clear that they would not join the same coalition as the HDP. Erdoğan didn't even give the CHP a chance to try to form a coalition, anyway. The MHP will certainly insist on the Kurdish peace process - really the last remaining positive achievement of the AKP and Erdoğan, before the latter decided that reigniting the civil war would generate enough votes to save his bacon - being abandoned as the price for entering any coalition, which does not bode well, I fear. If a coalition excluding the AKP can be put together, though, this raises the prospect of the abandoned corruption investigations being reopened, which could well spell the end of the AKP and also the Islamist project of destroying the secular republic.

It is rumoured that Erdoğan has put together a team of legal experts to examine the conditions under which the president can face criminal charges, and what the defences are.

Interesting times. Erdoğan will certainly do everything he can to save his skin.

[Maximus]

This guy just got 5 years and 9 months in Jail for insulting Erdogan.

http://www.todayszaman.com/national_jou ... 99392.html

meanwhile, a Turkhish horde is videotaped smashing up a Kurdish shops in Diyarbakir and not one of them gets prosecuted for criminal damage.

[Tim Drayton]

...
If you were more specific about how you believe Erdoğan is "pulling the strings behind the scenes" I could consider it.
...

It is reported that Prime Minister Davutoğlu visited Erdoğan at the palace he has built in breach of planning laws at two in the morning the night before last taking with him the prospective list of AKP candidates for the upcoming repeat elections so that the latter could approve it:

http://www.cumhuriyet.com.tr/haber/siya ... rusme.html

If you wish me to spell out why this is a flagrant violation of the constitution, I will be happy to do so.

[Tim Drayton]

It seems now all of the staff of another polling company who were out conducting a poll into the early elections have been arrested:

http://www.cumhuriyet.com.tr/haber/turk ... lindi.html

Any Erdoğan apologists out there care to explain this one? Or could it be that you can't rig an election if it is too far out of synch with what all the polls have predicted?

[cypriotnado]

It seems now all of the staff of another polling company who were out conducting a poll into the early elections have been arrested:

http://www.cumhuriyet.com.tr/haber/turk ... lindi.html

Any Erdoğan apologists out there care to explain this one? Or could it be that you can't rig an election if it is too far out of synch with what all the polls have predicted?

Tim I appreciate your posts they are very knowledgeable and show true insight into the state of play in Turkey. For me Its equally important to mention the many in Turkey who are actually risking prison in order to speak out. We can but hope with the new election that change comes soon. Its a shame that the EU,US and its leaders, say and do nothing, apart from the odd statement from some low level spokesperson.

Furthurmore, its good that you challenge the apologists to react but its a SHAME that you do not show an equal reaction to the stream of racist abuse, some following your postings. where Turks and Turkish Cypriots and muslims in general are called 'cunts' or told 'to burn in hell' etc. You seem to ignore these? If we want a reunified Cyprus then we have to challenge racism from all sides particularly in our own backyard and even report it where it breaks the law and not simply ignore it.

[Tim Drayton]

It seems now all of the staff of another polling company who were out conducting a poll into the early elections have been arrested:

http://www.cumhuriyet.com.tr/haber/turk ... lindi.html

Any Erdoğan apologists out there care to explain this one? Or could it be that you can't rig an election if it is too far out of synch with what all the polls have predicted?

Tim I appreciate your posts they are very knowledgeable and show true insight into the state of play in Turkey. For me Its equally important to mention the many in Turkey who are actually risking prison in order to speak out. We can but hope with the new election that change comes soon. Its a shame that the EU,US and its leaders, say and do nothing, apart from the odd statement from some low level spokesperson.

Furthurmore, its good that you challenge the apologists to react but its a SHAME that you do not show an equal reaction to the stream of racist abuse, some following your postings. where Turks and Turkish Cypriots and muslims in general are called 'cunts' or told 'to burn in hell' etc. You seem to ignore these? If we want a reunified Cyprus then we have to challenge racism from all sides particularly in our own backyard and even report it where it breaks the law and not simply ignore it.

You're right, but I think the best approach to such stuff is just to ignore it.