Sotos wrote:No federation is the result of ethnic cleansing ... that is why in federations people can freely move and settle with full rights in any state they want. If we were to have a real federation in Cyprus then the result would be two states run by GCs.
Well Bosnia Herzogovinia is both a result of ethnic cleansing and a federation. It was a state imposed on all parties - not ideal.
I suspect if and its a BIG 'if' we have a referendum it will probably be rejected again - as voices of doubt are gathering on both sides. I also believe that division is what Turkey wants. I find if difficult to accept that they ae investing hundreds of millions in a water pipeline and now an electic cable to just hand it over. Friends also tell me that the settler democraphic is changing. Kyrenia is under going a property boom with many affluent Turks and some others buying new apartments and houses. Many of these new settlers are able to operate businesses from Cyprus,with the added benefit of escaping secular oppression in Turkey.
Akinci, I think a decent man and will hopefully offer more then Annan but at the end of the day he will not be able to deliver what some of you here want a return to pre 74 Cyprus.
Analysis was done on the GC refugee numbers by supporters of federal system and described in the CY Mail. From the 160,000 refugees of 1974 (including children) some 85,000 have since died. Two thirds of those still alive would have their homes returned under a similar proposal to Annan, and if they could move into them it would be under Greek Cypriot administration. From land returns! That leaves 25,000 people. This figure includes those that were children in 1974 and have no connection to their homes in the north. Would these people choose to up and leave jobs, homes to live in the North. I suspect most would take the money or do an exchange or rent their property.
My prediction for what its worth is that after a rejection Turkey will organise a plesbicite and they will go for some kind of Autonomy/home rule for Turkish Cypriots within a Turkish state. No longer a separate entity but part of a larger state. He will use the argument that we have offered everything we can realistically, we even supported a strong pro unification leader but the Greek cypriots want to return to pre 74 and that is unacceptable. No one will care or do anything and the division will be permanent. The talks will end as they are going nowhere? This status I believe will be irreversible in much the same way as the occupation and settlement in parts of the West bank and Israel proper. As with Greek majority/minority areas in Anatolia and on some now Turkish aegean islands and vice versa ie Turks originating from Greece, all will fade into a memory. In another 50 years no refugees will be alive.