Cyprus-Forum.com

[Get Real!]

I think now it’s gotten to a point where it doesn’t matter what they vote… they’re screwed either way.

[erolz66]

A YES vote will mean you have absolutely zero negotiating clout.

It is having to have borrowed 240bn euro in order to stay solvent that means you have next to zero negotiating clout and I am afraid that reality does not change because of a referendum vote of those in whose name such borrowing was taken out in, whichever way it goes. Believe it or not I actually have great sympathy for position ordinary Greeks now find themselves in but this idea that Greece as a state can increase its 'negotiating clout' by voting into power an 'anti austerity' government or by a referendum, to me seems like some kind of mass self delusion. Money is power and those with enough money to be able to lend 240bn euro have and will always have the 'clout' over those who need to borrow such sums. That is just the way the world works and if you want that to change you are beyond 'communism' imo.

[Maximus]

A YES vote will mean you have absolutely zero negotiating clout.

It is having to have borrowed 240bn euro in order to stay solvent that means you have next to zero negotiating clout and I am afraid that reality does not change because of a referendum vote of those in whose name such borrowing was taken out in, whichever way it goes. Believe it or not I actually have great sympathy for position ordinary Greeks now find themselves in but this idea that Greece as a state can increase its 'negotiating clout' by voting into power an 'anti austerity' government or by a referendum, to me seems like some kind of mass self delusion. Money is power and those with enough money to be able to lend 240bn euro have and will always have the 'clout' over those who need to borrow such sums. That is just the way the world works and if you want that to change you are beyond 'communism' imo.

They will manufacture it out of thin air, create debt for the Greeks, which creates burden.

Greece will do the same if she reverts back to the drachma, the only difference is that Greece takes her power back.

[Paphitis]

A YES vote will mean you have absolutely zero negotiating clout.

It is having to have borrowed 240bn euro in order to stay solvent that means you have next to zero negotiating clout and I am afraid that reality does not change because of a referendum vote of those in whose name such borrowing was taken out in, whichever way it goes. Believe it or not I actually have great sympathy for position ordinary Greeks now find themselves in but this idea that Greece as a state can increase its 'negotiating clout' by voting into power an 'anti austerity' government or by a referendum, to me seems like some kind of mass self delusion. Money is power and those with enough money to be able to lend 240bn euro have and will always have the 'clout' over those who need to borrow such sums. That is just the way the world works and if you want that to change you are beyond 'communism' imo.

The 240 billion was to pay out maturing bonds and to bail out the Banks, not to keep Greece solvent. Think of it as a huge refinance.

Only a very small portion was to help the public purse and it comes with a lot of strings attached.

The vote is to give the Government a mandate to take this down the wire because it is a very risky situation.

Defaults changes the playing field completely and I believe the so called partners have a lot more to lose than Greece does. Like a game of poker, Greece could really stuff them right up and its economy will have a chance in the near future.

[erolz66]

A YES vote will mean you have absolutely zero negotiating clout.

It is having to have borrowed 240bn euro in order to stay solvent that means you have next to zero negotiating clout and I am afraid that reality does not change because of a referendum vote of those in whose name such borrowing was taken out in, whichever way it goes. Believe it or not I actually have great sympathy for position ordinary Greeks now find themselves in but this idea that Greece as a state can increase its 'negotiating clout' by voting into power an 'anti austerity' government or by a referendum, to me seems like some kind of mass self delusion. Money is power and those with enough money to be able to lend 240bn euro have and will always have the 'clout' over those who need to borrow such sums. That is just the way the world works and if you want that to change you are beyond 'communism' imo.

They will manufacture it out of thin air, create debt for the Greeks, which creates burden.

Greece will do the same if she reverts back to the drachma, the only difference is that Greece takes her power back.

I do not disagree with what you say - my point was that the idea that by simply voting in an anti austerity government or voting one way in referendum you can fundamentally change the basic power dynamics between Greece as a state and those it has borrowed from and seeks to borrow more from is to me little more than wishful thinking and delusion. Such things do not change the basic power dynamics between lender and borrower.

[erolz66]

A YES vote will mean you have absolutely zero negotiating clout.

It is having to have borrowed 240bn euro in order to stay solvent that means you have next to zero negotiating clout and I am afraid that reality does not change because of a referendum vote of those in whose name such borrowing was taken out in, whichever way it goes. Believe it or not I actually have great sympathy for position ordinary Greeks now find themselves in but this idea that Greece as a state can increase its 'negotiating clout' by voting into power an 'anti austerity' government or by a referendum, to me seems like some kind of mass self delusion. Money is power and those with enough money to be able to lend 240bn euro have and will always have the 'clout' over those who need to borrow such sums. That is just the way the world works and if you want that to change you are beyond 'communism' imo.

The 240 billion was to pay out maturing bonds and to bail out the Banks, not to keep Greece solvent. Think of it as a huge refinance.

Only a very small portion was to help the public purse and it comes with a lot of strings attached.

The vote is to give the Government a mandate to take this down the wire because it is a very risky situation.

Defaults changes the playing field completely and I believe the so called partners have a lot more to lose than Greece does. Like a game of poker, Greece could really stuff them right up and its economy will have a chance in the near future.

Indeed the only 'leverage' Greece as a state has is the risk of 'contagion' or as you put it 'stuffing everyone else along with themselves'. It was that 'leverage' which led to the to the previous bail out deals being offered and made. Without that risk there would have been no first and second bail out loans. That risk, though still real, has undoubtedly significantly reduced since the first bail out and with it what leverage the Greek state has, has likewise reduced not increased. A referendum does not change that.

At the simplest level in the relationship between lender and borrower the lender always has more power than the borrower and there is I am afraid no magic means of changing that fundamental dynamic. The idea that a referendum is just such a magic means of changing said dynamic is to me just self delusion.

[Get Real!]

At the simplest level in the relationship between lender and borrower the lender always has more power than the borrower and there is I am afraid no magic means of changing that fundamental dynamic.

You have invented strange new concepts that do not exist at the faculty of economics at Athens University.

[kurupetos]

I think now it’s gotten to a point where it doesn’t matter what they vote… they’re screwed either way.

True. They need a new government.

[Nikitas]

Re the negotiating clout. Eaton educated finance undersecretary Euclid Tsakalotos this morning on SKAI said that the referendum was chose because the draft agreement would not be voted by the Syriza deputies in parliament. Failure to muster the party would mean elections he said.

There goes the negotiating clout in one move.

The cynicism fo the statement shocks. They chose to ravage a whole country to save their party unity. These people are scary.

[Kikapu]

It is possible that Greece does want to exit the Euro if they do not get a more favourable economic package from Merkel and the Gang, but do not want to exit voluntarily if they don’t. Instead, they want to be kicked out, and then whatever follows in Greece's future, they will let those who kicked Greece out to take the blame in what will follow. Greece may be planning a, "heads we win, tails you lose" game. Once Greece is out of the Euro but still in the EU, they will then be in the position to directly or indirectly blackmail the EU by wanting to also leave NATO and allow Russian and Chinese military to have bases in Greece, as well as China and Russia having an influence in the EU through Greece's EU membership, something which what Turkey wanted for a long time through the TCs in Cyprus, specially had the AP passed in 2004.

With a "NO" vote on Sunday, Greece has options to fight back, dirty as it may be, but when Greece is cornered as they are now, who can blame them how they fight back. The Russians are planning to build the "Turkish Stream" gas pipeline to Greece in order to reach Europe. Once this is done, the Russians will most definitely cut off gas to Europe through Ukraine, leaving Greece the energy power gate to Europe, not to mention Greece will also start drilling their own gas and oil fields and telling Turkey to take a hike at the same time if they don't like it. With the rising economic power of China and the military powers of China and Russia having bases in Greece, as well as they having a "direct line to the EU" through Greece, this will put Greece in a very strong position. Yes, Greece does have options and ways to kick Merkel and the gang in the "balls". It will be an option for Greece, which is better than having it's own "balls" squeezed by Merkel and the gang right now and in the future.