Maximus wrote:Pyrpolizer wrote:B25 wrote:Here is my prediction, and I hope I am wrong.
Akinci will be assassinated or be involved in a fatal accident, sooner rather than later.
You place too much faith in the TCs and their ability to change things. Only about 70k TCs and 150k voting Turks. You decide you has the power. Seems very obvious to me.
You too like Maximus should learn to get your data right
http://in-cyprus.com/northern-cyprus-de ... is-voting/
Even with those numbers, this article is saying that there are 190k eligible voters in the north. The republic of Cyprus's record for the same time says that there were 92k eligible TC's to vote in EU elections. 190k - 92k = 98K settlers eligible to vote, which is greater than the total eligible TC vote. This was 4 years ago.
If we consider that we are assuming that all the TC's voted for Akinci and all the settlers voted, the TC could not elect him by themselves. If we assume that it is more likely that they all did not vote for Akinci, then some of the settlers did. In other words, the TC could not give him 60% of the vote by themselves. Its unrealistic to think so unless we make some other assumptions, like, many settlers did not turn out to vote and all the TC voted for Akinci.
This is a minor point, I am more concerned about what they voted him in for. His policy on the CY prob. Which you don't want to educate me about even though you are feeling so hopeful about him.
The data confirms what I told you before. That if ALL Tcs voted for him then he would only need 0-5% from the settlers. Maybe I was a few percentage points away, but the point is that your numbers were wrong (if I remember you said settlers were 3 times as many?)
Now the only thing I could "educate" you, and you will not find this in any newspaper, is that just like our Romanians and Sri Lankans left Cyprus because there are no jobs anymore the same happened during the past 2-3 years in the occupied. Many settlers abandoned the place because they found better jobs in factories in Turkey. This turned the REAL TC % higher than what it was a few years ago.
My hopes for Akinci are in relation with Eroglu. At this point our equity with Eroglu was 0% with Akinci is 30%. This 30% could rise and one day become 100% or could fall down to 0% again. Should I start crying like most people did in this forum or should I get happy for the fact that our chances for a solution jumped up from one day to another?