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[Paphitis]

Some information for the Aviation experts.

Air Asia 8501 Load and Trim Sheet

http://jansaviation.com/files/QZ8501-LoadTrim.pdf

SigWX Chart at time of accident.

[Paphitis]

Indonesian SAR Official Report

From Indonesia National SAR official briefing:

(all times local)

05:36 QZ8501 departed Juanda airport, Surabaya

06:12 Contacts Jakarta center 125.70 at FL320, requests weather deviation left of M635 airway and climb to FL380

06:16 QZ8501 still observed on radar

06:17 Radar contact lost. Radio contact lost. Only ADS-B signal remained.

06:18 All contact lost. Only flight plan view on radar screen.

07:08 ATC declares INCERFA (aircraft position uncertain)

07:28 ATC declares ALERTFA (emergency alert)

07:55 ATC declares DETRESFA (emergency distress)

Inter Tropical Convergance Zone

[Paphitis]

Actual reported winds at the time - max Headwinds of 35 knots approx.



ATC reported speed was 353 knots at 36300FT

GS of UAE409 was 503kts on the radar picture. This is a tailwind component of about 40-50 kts.

[Paphitis]

Could this be an Air France Repeat?

Blocked pitots during attempted climb above CBs which were reported to go as high as 45000FT. Static Pressure falls causing over reading airspeed. Result: raise nose to contain erroneous speed indications - hence lower ATC speeds and ultimately resulting in a deep STALL.

OR

Mid air break up.

No Distress Signal (Pan Pan) or Emergency Signal (Mayday) given.

What do you think?

[Kikapu]

I'm just shocked that the aircraft (wreckage) has not been found yet after it had disappeared for 19 hours when it's last radar position was known to the ground at 06:17 local time. Unlike Flt. AF447 which went down in a "no man's land" somewhere between South American continent and Africa where there is no radar coverage, I can't understand where the problem is in locating Flt. QZ8501 by now, given it’s geographical position. Lets assume the worse and that the aircraft broke up/stalled and fell to the sea/land at the point of last radar location at 06:17, so how wide an area is it going to be where the aircraft hits the water/land from that last know position, accounting for the 35knot winds, and about the 5-6 minutes it would have taken for the aircraft's freefall? Something does not sound right at all to me at this stage, but I will hold judgement until when search will continue at daybreak. If the aircraft is not located by Monday nightfall local time, we need to look at other possibilities I'm afraid.

[Paphitis]

I'm just shocked that the aircraft (wreckage) has not been found yet after it had disappeared for 19 hours when it's last radar position was known to the ground at 06:17 local time. Unlike Flt. AF447 which went down in a "no man's land" somewhere between South American continent and Africa where there is no radar coverage, I can't understand where the problem is in locating Flt. QZ8501 by now, given it’s geographical position. Lets assume the worse and that the aircraft broke up/stalled and fell to the sea/land at the point of last radar location at 06:17, so how wide an area is it going to be where the aircraft hits the water/land from that last know position, accounting for the 35knot winds, and about the 5-6 minutes it would have taken for the aircraft's freefall? Something does not sound right at all to me at this stage, but I will hold judgement until when search will continue at daybreak. If the aircraft is not located by Monday nightfall local time, we need to look at other possibilities I'm afraid.

I can understand it Kikapu! It's bloody not easy at all.

But before we get into that, I am quite perplexed as to why you would use AF447 as your example to define the ultimate in a crash occurring in "no man's land" and not MH370 which was thousands of miles off its planned route. MH370 didn't even have a start point for the search whereas ZQ8501 and AF447 do. Can you explain this to me please?

As to not being able to find QZ8501, you just need to look at the Weather Conditions. Search Aircraft would not be able to fly beneath CB activity due to microburst activity associated with the cells. It is suicidal.



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microburst

It's suicidal underneath these CBs and within them which is why QZ8501 went down.

[Kikapu]

I'm just shocked that the aircraft (wreckage) has not been found yet after it had disappeared for 19 hours when it's last radar position was known to the ground at 06:17 local time. Unlike Flt. AF447 which went down in a "no man's land" somewhere between South American continent and Africa where there is no radar coverage, I can't understand where the problem is in locating Flt. QZ8501 by now, given it’s geographical position. Lets assume the worse and that the aircraft broke up/stalled and fell to the sea/land at the point of last radar location at 06:17, so how wide an area is it going to be where the aircraft hits the water/land from that last know position, accounting for the 35knot winds, and about the 5-6 minutes it would have taken for the aircraft's freefall? Something does not sound right at all to me at this stage, but I will hold judgement until when search will continue at daybreak. If the aircraft is not located by Monday nightfall local time, we need to look at other possibilities I'm afraid.

I can understand it Kikapu! It's bloody not easy at all.

But before we get into that, I am quite perplexed as to why you would use AF447 as your example to define the ultimate in a crash occurring in "no man's land" and not MH370 which was thousands of miles off its planned route. MH370 didn't even have a start point for the search whereas ZQ8501 and AF447 do. Can you explain this to me please?

As to not being able to find QZ8501, you just need to look at the Weather Conditions. Search Aircraft would not be able to fly beneath CB activity due to microburst activity associated with the cells. It is suicidal.

Paphitis, I don't understand what points you are trying to make. First of all, it was you who brought up the AF447 as a possible comparison to ZQ8501 in your last post, as to the reason why I mentioned it. We knew almost from the start that MH370 was not a natural crash/disappearance but was manipulated on ALL different levels to hide it's location and the pilots true intensions, which are the reasons why the aircraft has not been found, or at least as far as we know anyway. The Americans/Australians could have brought down MH370 intentionally if it was indeed on a suicide mission and the so-called search was nothing but a "wild goose chase" to cover it up.

As for the weather, there were many other planes in the area where ZQ8501 had disappeared. I haven't heard any other planes having had any problems or asking to make a diversion based on weather. It is getting close to nightfall locally, and if the ZQ8501 isn't found by then, then start looking for similarities as to what happened not with AF447, but with MH370 instead.

[Paphitis]

I'm just shocked that the aircraft (wreckage) has not been found yet after it had disappeared for 19 hours when it's last radar position was known to the ground at 06:17 local time. Unlike Flt. AF447 which went down in a "no man's land" somewhere between South American continent and Africa where there is no radar coverage, I can't understand where the problem is in locating Flt. QZ8501 by now, given it’s geographical position. Lets assume the worse and that the aircraft broke up/stalled and fell to the sea/land at the point of last radar location at 06:17, so how wide an area is it going to be where the aircraft hits the water/land from that last know position, accounting for the 35knot winds, and about the 5-6 minutes it would have taken for the aircraft's freefall? Something does not sound right at all to me at this stage, but I will hold judgement until when search will continue at daybreak. If the aircraft is not located by Monday nightfall local time, we need to look at other possibilities I'm afraid.

I can understand it Kikapu! It's bloody not easy at all.

But before we get into that, I am quite perplexed as to why you would use AF447 as your example to define the ultimate in a crash occurring in "no man's land" and not MH370 which was thousands of miles off its planned route. MH370 didn't even have a start point for the search whereas ZQ8501 and AF447 do. Can you explain this to me please?

As to not being able to find QZ8501, you just need to look at the Weather Conditions. Search Aircraft would not be able to fly beneath CB activity due to microburst activity associated with the cells. It is suicidal.

Paphitis, I don't understand what points you are trying to make. First of all, it was you who brought up the AF447 as a possible comparison to ZQ8501 in your last post, as to the reason why I mentioned it. We knew almost from the start that MH370 was not a natural crash/disappearance but was manipulated on ALL different levels to hide it's location and the pilots true intensions, which are the reasons why the aircraft has not been found, or at least as far as we know anyway. The Americans/Australians could have brought down MH370 intentionally if it was indeed on a suicide mission and the so-called search was nothing but a "wild goose chase" to cover it up.

As for the weather, there were many other planes in the area where ZQ8501 had disappeared. I haven't heard any other planes having had any problems or asking to make a diversion based on weather. It is getting close to nightfall locally, and if the ZQ8501 isn't found by then, then start looking for similarities as to what happened not with AF447, but with MH370 instead.

You've completely lost it. MH370 has not been found because the authorities had absolutely no idea where it went to because the Transponder was turned off, ACARS was disabled and because the aircraft quite cleverly avoided radar detection by dodging a number of Primary Radar installations to boot.

They calculated an arc, which they are still searching, by using Doppler Effect and comparing the BTO with other aircraft in the area. The pings however were spaced 1 hour apart and the 7th arc was the last detected interrogation by Inmarsat.

I mentioned AF447 because this crash could have similar contributing factors - blocked Static Vents.

You however mentioned "no man's land" and as such, AF447 was not in "no man's land" at all. When making sensationalists claims like this, then you are better off comparing to MH370 which was indeed in "no man's land" and extremely difficult to find - thousands of times more difficult than AF447 and ZQ8501. MH370 was thousands of miles from its planned route, SQ8501 only diverted West of its planned track but should only be a few miles from it. Similarly, AF447 was only a few miles from its planned route and it still took them a year to locate it.

The other planes in the area were flying at Flight Levels - most would try to get above FL400 if they are light enough to get that high and also deviate around the cells. They are far more better off than a Search Aircraft at below 2000FT in the extreme turbulence, wind shear and getting smashed by sideburst and microbursts. If you get caught in one of these, you're literally f@#ked and will get smashed into the ocean. Not even an F22 Raptor can get out of severe microburst.

[Kikapu]

I'm just shocked that the aircraft (wreckage) has not been found yet after it had disappeared for 19 hours when it's last radar position was known to the ground at 06:17 local time. Unlike Flt. AF447 which went down in a "no man's land" somewhere between South American continent and Africa where there is no radar coverage, I can't understand where the problem is in locating Flt. QZ8501 by now, given it’s geographical position. Lets assume the worse and that the aircraft broke up/stalled and fell to the sea/land at the point of last radar location at 06:17, so how wide an area is it going to be where the aircraft hits the water/land from that last know position, accounting for the 35knot winds, and about the 5-6 minutes it would have taken for the aircraft's freefall? Something does not sound right at all to me at this stage, but I will hold judgement until when search will continue at daybreak. If the aircraft is not located by Monday nightfall local time, we need to look at other possibilities I'm afraid.

I can understand it Kikapu! It's bloody not easy at all.

But before we get into that, I am quite perplexed as to why you would use AF447 as your example to define the ultimate in a crash occurring in "no man's land" and not MH370 which was thousands of miles off its planned route. MH370 didn't even have a start point for the search whereas ZQ8501 and AF447 do. Can you explain this to me please?

As to not being able to find QZ8501, you just need to look at the Weather Conditions. Search Aircraft would not be able to fly beneath CB activity due to microburst activity associated with the cells. It is suicidal.

Paphitis, I don't understand what points you are trying to make. First of all, it was you who brought up the AF447 as a possible comparison to ZQ8501 in your last post, as to the reason why I mentioned it. We knew almost from the start that MH370 was not a natural crash/disappearance but was manipulated on ALL different levels to hide it's location and the pilots true intensions, which are the reasons why the aircraft has not been found, or at least as far as we know anyway. The Americans/Australians could have brought down MH370 intentionally if it was indeed on a suicide mission and the so-called search was nothing but a "wild goose chase" to cover it up.

As for the weather, there were many other planes in the area where ZQ8501 had disappeared. I haven't heard any other planes having had any problems or asking to make a diversion based on weather. It is getting close to nightfall locally, and if the ZQ8501 isn't found by then, then start looking for similarities as to what happened not with AF447, but with MH370 instead.

You've completely lost it. MH370 has not been found because the authorities had absolutely no idea where it went to because the Transponder was turned off, ACARS was disabled and because the aircraft quite cleverly avoided radar detection by dodging a number of Primary Radar installations to boot.

They calculated an arc, which they are still searching, by using Doppler Effect and comparing the BTO with other aircraft in the area. The pings however were spaced 1 hour apart and the 7th arc was the last detected interrogation by Inmarsat.

I mentioned AF447 because this crash could have similar contributing factors - blocked Static Vents.

You however mentioned "no man's land" and as such, AF447 was not in "no man's land" at all. When making sensationalists claims like this, then you are better off comparing to MH370 which was indeed in "no man's land" and extremely difficult to find - thousands of times more difficult than AF447 and ZQ8501. MH370 was thousands of miles from its planned route, SQ8501 only diverted West of its planned track but should only be a few miles from it. Similarly, AF447 was only a few miles from its planned route and it still took them a year to locate it.

The other planes in the area were flying at Flight Levels - most would try to get above FL400 if they are light enough to get that high and also deviate around the cells. They are far more better off than a Search Aircraft at below 2000FT in the extreme turbulence, wind shear and getting smashed by sideburst and microbursts. If you get caught in one of these, you're literally f@#ked and will get smashed into the ocean. Not even an F22 Raptor can get out of severe microburst.

AF447 crash wreckage and 50 bodies were found within few days, including the body of the captain, despite being in "no mans land" in comparison to QZ8501.

My use of the words "no man's land" is only to meant that where AF447 went down, there are no radar coverage to indicate the aircrafts last know position to the ground at the time of it disappearance, unlike QZ8501. AF447 could have flown any direction from it's planned flight path to avoid weather and the ground would have not known any better because of not having any radar coverage to the mass area between South American continent and Africa. You cannot compare MH370 to AF447 because their disappearances are different as night and day. One was due to circumstances of weather and poor pilot(s) decisions to correct the problems and the other was a deliberate attempt by those in control of MH370 to hide the plane from the ground where radar coverage was available, to use the aircraft for purposes we in the public do not fully know yet. When things do not make sense from natural crashes, then one need to look at other possibilities, such as MH370 being shot down for the right reasons.

[Paphitis]

I'm just shocked that the aircraft (wreckage) has not been found yet after it had disappeared for 19 hours when it's last radar position was known to the ground at 06:17 local time. Unlike Flt. AF447 which went down in a "no man's land" somewhere between South American continent and Africa where there is no radar coverage, I can't understand where the problem is in locating Flt. QZ8501 by now, given it’s geographical position. Lets assume the worse and that the aircraft broke up/stalled and fell to the sea/land at the point of last radar location at 06:17, so how wide an area is it going to be where the aircraft hits the water/land from that last know position, accounting for the 35knot winds, and about the 5-6 minutes it would have taken for the aircraft's freefall? Something does not sound right at all to me at this stage, but I will hold judgement until when search will continue at daybreak. If the aircraft is not located by Monday nightfall local time, we need to look at other possibilities I'm afraid.

I can understand it Kikapu! It's bloody not easy at all.

But before we get into that, I am quite perplexed as to why you would use AF447 as your example to define the ultimate in a crash occurring in "no man's land" and not MH370 which was thousands of miles off its planned route. MH370 didn't even have a start point for the search whereas ZQ8501 and AF447 do. Can you explain this to me please?

As to not being able to find QZ8501, you just need to look at the Weather Conditions. Search Aircraft would not be able to fly beneath CB activity due to microburst activity associated with the cells. It is suicidal.

Paphitis, I don't understand what points you are trying to make. First of all, it was you who brought up the AF447 as a possible comparison to ZQ8501 in your last post, as to the reason why I mentioned it. We knew almost from the start that MH370 was not a natural crash/disappearance but was manipulated on ALL different levels to hide it's location and the pilots true intensions, which are the reasons why the aircraft has not been found, or at least as far as we know anyway. The Americans/Australians could have brought down MH370 intentionally if it was indeed on a suicide mission and the so-called search was nothing but a "wild goose chase" to cover it up.

As for the weather, there were many other planes in the area where ZQ8501 had disappeared. I haven't heard any other planes having had any problems or asking to make a diversion based on weather. It is getting close to nightfall locally, and if the ZQ8501 isn't found by then, then start looking for similarities as to what happened not with AF447, but with MH370 instead.

You've completely lost it. MH370 has not been found because the authorities had absolutely no idea where it went to because the Transponder was turned off, ACARS was disabled and because the aircraft quite cleverly avoided radar detection by dodging a number of Primary Radar installations to boot.

They calculated an arc, which they are still searching, by using Doppler Effect and comparing the BTO with other aircraft in the area. The pings however were spaced 1 hour apart and the 7th arc was the last detected interrogation by Inmarsat.

I mentioned AF447 because this crash could have similar contributing factors - blocked Static Vents.

You however mentioned "no man's land" and as such, AF447 was not in "no man's land" at all. When making sensationalists claims like this, then you are better off comparing to MH370 which was indeed in "no man's land" and extremely difficult to find - thousands of times more difficult than AF447 and ZQ8501. MH370 was thousands of miles from its planned route, SQ8501 only diverted West of its planned track but should only be a few miles from it. Similarly, AF447 was only a few miles from its planned route and it still took them a year to locate it.

The other planes in the area were flying at Flight Levels - most would try to get above FL400 if they are light enough to get that high and also deviate around the cells. They are far more better off than a Search Aircraft at below 2000FT in the extreme turbulence, wind shear and getting smashed by sideburst and microbursts. If you get caught in one of these, you're literally f@#ked and will get smashed into the ocean. Not even an F22 Raptor can get out of severe microburst.

AF447 crash wreckage and 50 bodies were found within few days, including the body of the captain, despite being in "no mans land" in comparison to QZ8501.

My use of the words "no man's land" is only to meant that where AF447 went down, there are no radar coverage to indicate the aircrafts last know position to the ground at the time of it disappearance, unlike QZ8501. AF447 could have flown any direction from it's planned flight path to avoid weather and the ground would have not known any better because of not having any radar coverage to the mass area between South American continent and Africa. You cannot compare MH370 to AF447 because their disappearances are different as night and day. One was due to circumstances of weather and poor pilot(s) decisions to correct the problems and the other was a deliberate attempt by those in control of MH370 to hide the plane from the ground where radar coverage was available, to use the aircraft for purposes we in the public do not fully know yet. When things do not make sense from natural crashes, then one need to look at other possibilities, such as MH370 being shot down for the right reasons.

OK fine, so you agree that the "no man's land" descriptor is especially true for MH370. You also agree that the search for MH370 is the most difficult in Aviation History.

The fact that debris was found for AF447, would indicate that this search was a lot more straightforward than is the case for MH370. Well it was a lot more straightforward because of the ACARS and ADIRS. I use this term loosely because no search is exactly as straight forward as most people think. AF447 was a difficult search and they had an extensive area to cover, in very deep water. But there is no comparison to the challenges in finding MH370.

The thing with AF447 is that they had coordinate fixes every 2 minutes straight to Air France HQ through ACARS. They new exactly what direction Air France had flown because they had Heading, GS and TAS information. They had information from the Air Data and Inertial Reference System (ADIRS). The AD provides Barometric Pressure, Speed, Mach Number, Angle of Attack, Temperature and Overspeed Warnings. The IRS provided Attitude, Flight Path, Track, Heading, Ground Speed, Vertical Speed, Aircraft Position and Wind Components. This was enough to confine the search area significantly.

This was not the case for MH370. No one knew a thing and only had some very rudimentary handshakes to an Inmarsat Satellite, which they could only use to calculate arcs at 1 hour intervals utilizing Doppler effect and comparing the signal offsets with other aircraft. That is a completely different ball game altogether. The Search Area for MH370, covers an area about the size of Continental Europe.