by Paphitis » Sun Mar 30, 2014 2:47 pm
OK it has been revealed that MH370 was detected by Vietnamese Primary Radar, no less than 3 Malaysian Primary Radars, as it was heading west towards Penang. Because the transponder was off, the aircraft was unidentified. The failure here is the fact that the RMAF did not scramble a jet to identify the aircraft.
OK, here is the most likely scenario based on circumstantial evidence!
There is no evidence of any catastrophic failure. The Transponder/ADS-B and ACARS were disabled. At some point the aircraft climbed to FL450, beyond its operating limit. Why? One theory is that the person in control of the aircraft wanted to kill all persons on board. So, maybe they disabled the pressurization warning system and then began to increase the Cabin's Pressure Altitude until fully depressurized. In about 9 to 15 seconds, all persons would be practically brain dead and in 2 minutes or shortly thereafter, all SOBs would be dead. The person in control would be wearing their oxygen mask. Afterall, if this was a suicide mission, then the passengers would need to be neutralized so that they can't attempt to storm the cockpit. So, the possibility is that all persons bar maybe 1 or perhaps 2 (probably just 1) were dead before the aircraft ditched due to fuel starvation.
Then, the aircraft descended to 12000FT before at some point climbing back up to the reported FL350 as the rogue aircraft adopted its final Southerly track which was far enough from the Australian coast and Indonesian Airspace for either country to be concerned with it. Also, the aircraft was flown to some of the deepest and inhospitable oceans in the world. It is practically impossible that the CVR and FDR will be found. The only items that will be retrieved is floating debris belonging to MH370. The debris could be as far as 1000nms from where MH370 entered the ocean. So the fact is, this crash could go down as one of the biggest aviation mysteries ever. Possibly the perfect crime.
Now of course I am not saying that is what happened because frankly I don't know. It is the most plausible explanation going around within the industry.
So who done it? There really is only very sketchy circumstantial evidence at best, but it could be one of the pilots and there was a Flight Engineer in board that would have all the technical knowledge to do all of the above as well. Other than this, a terrorist event can't be ruled out but the person responsible would have had to undergone quite extensive training.
So why would anyone do it? I can't answer that? A psychologist I am not but I put the above up because it is the most plausible scenario so far.
So it really is one very little step at a time. The only thing I believe that is achievable is to try and give the relatives some closure by finding, retrieving and identifying floating debris belonging to MH370. Therefore, the search is critically important and the efforts of 7 countries should be applauded. The next big step is locating the CVR and FDR. That I fear is practically impossible unless the Australians and Americans know something from JORN or their military satellites. If that is the case then just maybe, but I wouldn't think this to be in any way likely.
The only given is that the demise of MH370 was as a result of deliberate actions of someone on board. Now, obviously, your typical passenger would not be capable of all this. Pilots, engineers, or some really well trained suicide terrorist!