DT. wrote:Tim Drayton wrote:OK, maybe I am prepared to hold my nose and look the other way as long as I get an uninterrupted power supply and it doesn't cost the earth. The alternative is for global capital to get its hands on the national electricity grid and run it as a monopoly. I do not view that prospect with glee and would rather have the devil I know.
Now we're getting somewhere. Do you agree however that a private equity fund that would've taken a macro look at the economy and done some simple maths leading it to the obvious conclusion that energy output is GDP related. And if GDP increases then so will the output and effectively the profits of the power company. If we agree here then here's what we learnt in business school, you don't kill your client base. You encourage the growth of the economy by providing competitive energy regardless of whether you're in competition with someone or alone. Because the truth is you are never alone, you're client base is made up of a port that needs to compete with another port that uses a different power company, your client base is an airport that needs to compete as a hub with another airport in the region thats also supplied by a different company. If your clients don't do well then your investment won't either.
Now chances are that whoever takes over in the privatisations the money will come from pension funds or private equity funds. Typically they have an investment horizon of 7 years, which means in 7 years this firm better be in a better position than how they found it in order to realise their investment back with an acceptable return.
Now in all these points where a private investor can show that their interests are aligned with their consumers, can you give me ONE instance where a political party has its interests aligned with the people of Cyprus? (you do know that the parties run the power, phone and port companies. Right?)
A private investor cares about one thing and one thing only: How to get the highest return on his investment. And when you have a monopoly that is done by charging the highest prices possible. If there is direct competition then lowering prices could make sense because you could get more clients and therefore increase your profits. That doesn't happen with a monopoly. Our GDP will not grow and our economy will not be fixed just by lowering electricity prices. A ton of other things will need to be done for that to happen. So your argument that "lower electricity prices" = "higher GDP" = "more profits" doesn't stand and I doubt any investor will risk his money based on such kind of equations and none of them will come to Cyprus thinking that they will save our economy. What they will be thinking will be things like "How much profits is EAC making now?" "How much more profits can we make by cutting costs?" "Whats the worst case scenario for the economy of Cyprus. Can we still be making profits in such scenario?" etc etc