RENOWNED British think-tank Chatham House has concluded that severe doubts remain as to whether any reunification in Cyprus would work.
The report, entitled “Cyprus: Entering Another Stalemate” was prepared by Dr Tim Potier Assistant Professor of International Law and Human Rights at Intercollege and presented last night in Nicosia.
Chatham House, whose official name is The Royal Institute of International Affairs (RIIA), is one of the world's leading organisations for the analysis of international issues.
The seven-page report on Cyprus concludes that: “Irrespective of any constitutional settlement, power-sharing between the communities will almost certainly lead to the two sides squabbling over even the smallest of issues.”
It said the Cyprus problem appeared to have entered a new stalemate since the referendum on the Annan plan, which was rejected by Greek Cypriots and accepted by Turkish Cypriots.
The report notes that no further UN-brokered negotiations have been held since, the leaders of the two communities have not met during this period and that an increasing number of people both on the island and abroad are beginning to conclude that the Cyprus problem is unsolvable.
“The extended round of UN-brokered negotiations leading up to the April 24 referendum appears to have altered the positions of the sides little. Any new negotiations would almost certainly fail without the binding arbitration of the UN Secretary-general, but this is something the Greek Cypriots refuse to countenance happening a second time,” said the report. “Negotiations can be organised at any time under any conditions, but such type of negotiations will fail. Severe doubts must remain as to whether any reunification would work.”
It added there was little or no communication or trust between the bulk of the population on either side and that Greek Cypriots would never be able to accept the involvement of Turkey in the island’s internal affairs.
“Just as UN-brokered negotiations on Cyprus over the decades have been withering, so the European Union now risks being haunted by the unrelenting apparition that is the Cyprus problem,” it said.
The report also addresses Turkey’s EU accession course and suggests that the Cyprus government sees an opportunity to elicit key concessions from Ankara during the negotiations.
“It hopes to ‘Europeanise’ the solution to the Cyprus problem via the EU Council with the threat of many vetoes,” the report said. “There is a danger that the negotiations could be converted into discussions on the Cyprus issue, rather than on Turkey.”
It said Turkey would continue to refuse to have any direct dealings with the Cyprus government. “Irrespective of any other factor, this will not enable Ankara to extend the rights of free movement to Cyprus that implementation of the customs union agreement (from 1995) with the other nine new member states will give rise to. The Papadopoulos government will, as a result, be forced to spin media discussion of the issue in order to keep the electorate satisfied. Even if such an approach succeeds, it will only accentuate hostility towards Turkey among Greek Cypriots. Ankara’s refusal to recognice the ROC will, consequently, affect Turkey’s progress in negotiations,” the report said.
Commenting on the changes to the failed Annan plan that the Greek Cypriot side is seeking, the report said the changes sought by President Tassos Papadopoulos were extensive and would require the virtual rewriting of the more sensitive sections of the plan.
“He has sanitised his demands by continually stressing the need for the Plan’s ‘functionality’. However, these demands are so far removed from the current text that it is impossible to regard them as merely a maximal opening rejoinder before compromises can be reached in any later negotiations.
Ankara would never accept them and it is extremely doubtful whether Washington or London would seek to place any kind of pressure on Ankara to agree to most of them. Consequently, as long as Papadopoulos continues to hold to these positions, the prospects for any reunification occurring under him are almost zero,” the report said.
Even if some progress was made and a solution found, the Chatham report suggests that unless politicians on both sides change their mentality, it would all be in vain.
“Locally, the politicians have not inspired the confidence that they will be willing to continue making the necessary compromises in the early decades after any solution. Political dialogue across the divide has resorted to talking across, rather than to each other; the content is often childish. If politicians namecall and are so vulnerable to insults today, it must be doubtful whether they will have the wisdom effectively to govern a reunified state and member state of the European Union in which they will have to respond to the external demands of other countries’ interests, sudden events and a globalised world,” it said.
What do you think? This 'think-tank' is very pessimistic!
