Cyprus-Forum.com

[Jerry]

I think most of us have a good idea of what we would like to happen in Turkey as a result of the corruption crisis. Will Turkey end up with a new pro US government as in Egypt or will the the Americans eventually turn its back on the regime (should it survive) as it did in Iraq. In either event what will happen in Cyprus? For example will things get so bad for the Yanks that they have to give up Incirlik and seek a base elsewhere? Will recognition of the "trnc" be the price Turkey demands for staying aligned to the West?

[Tim Drayton]

I think most of us have a good idea of what we would like to happen in Turkey as a result of the corruption crisis. Will Turkey end up with a new pro US government as in Egypt or will the the Americans eventually turn its back on the regime (should it survive) as it did in Iraq. In either event what will happen in Cyprus? For example will things get so bad for the Yanks that they have to give up Incirlik and seek a base elsewhere? Will recognition of the "trnc" be the price Turkey demands for staying aligned to the West?

I don't really agree with your premise very much, I am afraid. I consider the AKP regime in Turkey to have been very pro-American and pro-global capital, or though it has started going off the rails recently and has outlived its usefulness to those who put it there. The deal pretty much was that the AKP could do what it liked domestically as long as it looked after the interests of international capital in Turkey and toed the line internationally - as an Islamist party this meant that it could pursue a gradual but aggressive policy of social islamisation, which may superficially have created the impression that this was an anti-Western, anti-American party, but deeper analysis shows that this is not the case. In fact, it is well known that the Americans have since the 1980 coup been pursuing a project of fostering what they call 'moderate Islam' in Turkey, and the creation of the AKP was part of this project.

[Jerry]

I think most of us have a good idea of what we would like to happen in Turkey as a result of the corruption crisis. Will Turkey end up with a new pro US government as in Egypt or will the the Americans eventually turn its back on the regime (should it survive) as it did in Iraq. In either event what will happen in Cyprus? For example will things get so bad for the Yanks that they have to give up Incirlik and seek a base elsewhere? Will recognition of the "trnc" be the price Turkey demands for staying aligned to the West?

I don't really agree with your premise very much, I am afraid. I consider the AKP regime in Turkey to have been very pro-American and pro-global capital, or though it has started going off the rails recently and has outlived its usefulness to those who put it there. The deal pretty much was that the AKP could do what it liked domestically as long as it looked after the interests of international capital in Turkey and toed the line internationally - as an Islamist party this meant that it could pursue a gradual but aggressive policy of social islamisation, which may superficially have created the impression that this was an anti-Western, anti-American party, but deeper analysis shows that this is not the case. In fact, it is well known that the Americans have since the 1980 coup been pursuing a project of fostering what they call 'moderate Islam' in Turkey, and the creation of the AKP was part of this project.

No doubt you have a better insight to Turkish politics than most Tim, however recent events such as the rift with Israel, the apparent movement away from EU membership, recent gas/oil discovery, threats to buy Chinese weapons, and accusations of US meddling in the current corruption scandal must surely play a part in re-shaping US foreign policy. Turkey's key role in NATO has diminished, it failed its allies when Iraq was invaded. Turkey has not confined its Islamist views to domestic matters, how long before its actual involvement (as with Hamas) becomes more widespread.

As for international capital, time will tell if EU capitalists and Wall Street decide there are more stable regimes in which to invest.

[Tim Drayton]

I think most of us have a good idea of what we would like to happen in Turkey as a result of the corruption crisis. Will Turkey end up with a new pro US government as in Egypt or will the the Americans eventually turn its back on the regime (should it survive) as it did in Iraq. In either event what will happen in Cyprus? For example will things get so bad for the Yanks that they have to give up Incirlik and seek a base elsewhere? Will recognition of the "trnc" be the price Turkey demands for staying aligned to the West?

I don't really agree with your premise very much, I am afraid. I consider the AKP regime in Turkey to have been very pro-American and pro-global capital, or though it has started going off the rails recently and has outlived its usefulness to those who put it there. The deal pretty much was that the AKP could do what it liked domestically as long as it looked after the interests of international capital in Turkey and toed the line internationally - as an Islamist party this meant that it could pursue a gradual but aggressive policy of social islamisation, which may superficially have created the impression that this was an anti-Western, anti-American party, but deeper analysis shows that this is not the case. In fact, it is well known that the Americans have since the 1980 coup been pursuing a project of fostering what they call 'moderate Islam' in Turkey, and the creation of the AKP was part of this project.

No doubt you have a better insight to Turkish politics than most Tim, however recent events such as the rift with Israel, the apparent movement away from EU membership, recent gas/oil discovery, threats to buy Chinese weapons, and accusations of US meddling in the current corruption scandal must surely play a part in re-shaping US foreign policy. Turkey's key role in NATO has diminished, it failed its allies when Iraq was invaded. Turkey has not confined its Islamist views to domestic matters, how long before its actual involvement (as with Hamas) becomes more widespread.

As for international capital, time will tell if EU capitalists and Wall Street decide there are more stable regimes in which to invest.

As I said, things have started going off the rails recently and, yes, things have happened that are not to the USA's liking, such as the points you rightly raise.

To simplify greatly, and this I think is how most secularists in Turkey view things, there has been a puppet show within a puppet show, with the CIA - acting on behalf of the US's international neo-imperialist interests - holding Fethullah Gülen's strings, with Gülen holding Erdoğan's strings. Of course, that's how it was (maybe), but the whole thing is caving in now. If the Americans had really learnt the lessons of Afghanistan, they would realise that the Islamists you think are your allies will eventually turn round and bite you. One of the snags of being the dominant world power is that you can rewrite history in your favour, which also stops you from learning the lessons of it.

The parallel you draw with Egypt is also very valid as both Egypt and Turkey have been US client states for some time. There was a documentary on the BBC world service a couple of years ago in which the presenter gave very plausible evidence to show that the Muslim Brotherhood was set up by the CIA in the 1950's among Egyptian emigres living in West Germany. So when the Muslim brotherhood was toppled in a coup, I somehow felt that Erdoğan's time would also be up. It is instructive to note that many Arab secularists allege that Erdoğan is not just an ally/supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood, but is a secret member. That makes the parallels all the more striking. They seem to have decided,for whatever reason, to liquidate this movement now.

Anyway, I'm off now, so a happy new year to you and everybody.

[Jerry]

As I said, things have started going off the rails recently and, yes, things have happened that are not to the USA's liking, such as the points you rightly raise.

To simplify greatly, and this I think is how most secularists in Turkey view things, there has been a puppet show within a puppet show, with the CIA - acting on behalf of the US's international neo-imperialist interests - holding Fethullah Gülen's strings, with Gülen holding Erdoğan's strings. Of course, that's how it was (maybe), but the whole thing is caving in now. If the Americans had really learnt the lessons of Afghanistan, they would realise that the Islamists you think are your allies will eventually turn round and bite you. One of the snags of being the dominant world power is that you can rewrite history in your favour, which also stops you from learning the lessons of it.

The parallel you draw with Egypt is also very valid as both Egypt and Turkey have been US client states for some time. There was a documentary on the BBC world service a couple of years ago in which the presenter gave very plausible evidence to show that the Muslim Brotherhood was set up by the CIA in the 1950's among Egyptian emigres living in West Germany. So when the Muslim brotherhood was toppled in a coup, I somehow felt that Erdoğan's time would also be up. It is instructive to note that many Arab secularists allege that Erdoğan is not just an ally/supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood, but is a secret member. That makes the parallels all the more striking. They seem to have decided,for whatever reason, to liquidate this movement now.

Anyway, I'm off now, so a happy new year to you and everybody.

Thanks for that, happy new year. Let's hope there's some profound changes in Cyprus - after all who would have ever predicted the collapse of the Soviet empire.

[Lordo]

for a decade now we have had a leader in terkey who did not believe that the cyprus problem was solved in 74 and what progress we made so far. you are dreaming if you expect another leader with this mentality. last i heard dsp said that cyprus was terkish.

you kept kicking the gift horse in the mouth and now you are hoping that the new leader will have the same mentality. good luck with your search perhaps in another 50 years we may be at this point once again hoping for a miracle.

[Jerry]

for a decade now we have had a leader in terkey who did not believe that the cyprus problem was solved in 74 and what progress we made so far. you are dreaming if you expect another leader with this mentality. last i heard dsp said that cyprus was terkish.

you kept kicking the gift horse in the mouth and now you are hoping that the new leader will have the same mentality. good luck with your search perhaps in another 50 years we may be at this point once again hoping for a miracle.

"kicking the gift horse in the mouth" You are having a laugh sunshine! You steal what is ours and expect us to be grateful when you offer a tiny bit of it back!
Raddishes (big Cypriot ones) up your arse - sideways!

The Yanks will decide what happens in Cyprus not some little jumped up raghead.

[Lordo]

oh dear another dreamer - of course you will get a better deal from the next terkish leader,
charlui charlui cahrlui
everywhere there are charluis.