Jerry wrote:Tim Drayton wrote:No, Gülen is firmly ensconced in his farmhouse in Pennsylvania as the leader of a religious sect - the fact that two senior CIA people gave references to support his application for a green card speaks volumes (as does the fact that America refused to extradite him to Turkey at a time when he was wanted there for treason). He will not take over.
I think we are witnessing the start of Turkey's next coup, though, and it looks like being another post-modern one. In my view, all of the previous coups in Turkey have taken place at the very least with the passive support of the USA, and I think there is no difference here.
After Sisi staged his coup in Egypt to remove the Islamic Brotherhood from power (and it is also telling that Sisi has become this year's Time man of the year!), it became clear that America has decided to liquidate this organisation now that it has outlived its usefulness to them, and I began to wonder about Erdoğan's future, given his close ties to the brotherhood. I somehow could not see the military being brought in to remove him, though, and I would never have dreamed that they would use Gülen instead. That's the way the cookie has crumbled.
PS - Just by coincidence!, the leader of the opposition, Kılıçdaroğlu, recently paid a visit to the USA during which he met people from Gülen's organisation as well as American officials. Today, he lunched with the US ambassador. I think these are significant pointers. If he is expected to take over, I am sure the deal will be the same as with Erdoğan - he will have plenty of latitude in domestic affairs as long as he does what Uncle Sam wants on the international arena. If he upsets the Americans, he will be out.
Don't forget that President Gül is a faithful Gülen man.
Just my take on things.
Tim, in your opinion how would regime change in Turkey affect resolution of the Cyprus problem? Would Gulen loosen Turkey's grip on the island or will he build more mosques?
You have to appreciate that Gülen and his organisation have been immensely powerful for a long time and have always been around, pulling the strings from offstage. This organisation has an annual turnover higher than the budget of many sovereign nations and is involved in hundreds of countries around the world. These are the people who created the AKP party and made Erdoğan who he is today. Things have come to a head partly because Erdoğan has started asserting himself too much. Gülen always operates through front organisations and is known to have been extending his tentacles into the north of Cyprus for some time. He is already behind the building of mosques and the opening of academic institutions to study religion. His organisation also operates under the guise of 'interfaith dialogue' and favours cooperation with Christian organisations. It would not surprise me if Gülen already also had some involvement in the south of Cyprus, too, in the form of some innocent looking Christian body. Gülen's outlook seems to me to be neo-Ottoman and expansive in outlook, which I do not think bodes well for Cyprus. However, I believe that Gülen is essentially a servant of the country of which he is now a resident,the USA, and I think it is Uncle Sam that now wants Erdoğan out; I don't really see Gülen as being the main agent. Gülen is in any case somebody who prefers to stay in the wings and manipulate things - I do not think he is going to take political office. The early signs are that the current leader of the opposition, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, is possibly being groomed for power.
Things are very unclear and anything could still happen, in my view, but it is certain that 2013 will go down in history as being a year of momentous change in Turkey.
