Cyprus-Forum.com

[bill cobbett]

Pretty remarkable news that PM Erdogan, the Gas Man of Istanbul, is reported as supporting moves to re-examine the convictions of scores of Army officers for involvement in past coup attempts, with new trials.

Many are saying that this is a move to distract from the corruption allegations... ( or is it, to take things further, an attempt to discredit the judiciary or in the extreme, is the Turkish PM trying to win the support of the Army...??? )

http://www.todayszaman.com/news-335811- ... s-say.html

[Tim Drayton]

A poll just conducted by the Gezici Araştırma market research company in 36 provinces of Turkey with 5,292 participants included the following results:

Local elections will be held in about three months’ time, but if local elections were held this week, in other words if you went to the polling station this Sunday, who - which party - would you vote for in the local elections for the Municipal Assembly?
AKP 39.8%
CHP 32.7%
MHP 17.8%
BDP 7.9%
OTHERS 1.8%

If General Parliamentary Elections were held today, in other words if you were to vote today, who - which party - would you vote for?
AKP 43.3%
CHP 28.7%
MHP 18.5%
BDP 8.3%
OTHERS 1.2%

http://www.cumhuriyet.com.tr/foto/26145 ... nketi.html

[Tim Drayton]

Pretty remarkable news that PM Erdogan, the Gas Man of Istanbul, is reported as supporting moves to re-examine the convictions of scores of Army officers for involvement in past coup attempts, with new trials.

Many are saying that this is a move to distract from the corruption allegations... ( or is it, to take things further, an attempt to discredit the judiciary or in the extreme, is the Turkish PM trying to win the support of the Army...??? )

http://www.todayszaman.com/news-335811- ... s-say.html

A lot of these convictions are highly dubious, based on what appears to be fabricated evidence. Consider the fact that expert testimony was presented showing that the key evidence in the Balyoz (Sledgehammer) trial had been reworked using Word 2007, contained references to the Calibri font and even contained sections written in the Calibri font - a font first devised in 2004 - and it is clear that these documents could not date from 2003, the year of the alleged coup plot, yet the court simply ignored all of these objections. Erdoğan was happy to have the Gülen-controlled courts conduct show trials and imprison huge numbers of his secularist political opponents. Suddenly, now that this same machine has turned against him and his allies, he has changed his tune.

By the way, hundreds, not scores, of army officers now languish behind bars.

[Jerry]

A poll just conducted by the Gezici Araştırma market research company in 36 provinces of Turkey with 5,292 participants included the following results:

Local elections will be held in about three months’ time, but if local elections were held this week, in other words if you went to the polling station this Sunday, who - which party - would you vote for in the local elections for the Municipal Assembly?
AKP 39.8%
CHP 32.7%
MHP 17.8%
BDP 7.9%
OTHERS 1.8%

If General Parliamentary Elections were held today, in other words if you were to vote today, who - which party - would you vote for?
AKP 43.3%
CHP 28.7%
MHP 18.5%
BDP 8.3%
OTHERS 1.2%

http://www.cumhuriyet.com.tr/foto/26145 ... nketi.html

So Erdogan would form a coalition with BDP?. If he remains in power would he continue to move away from his traditional allies in the West and be forced to give up on the "trnc" - we live in hope.

[Tim Drayton]

A poll just conducted by the Gezici Araştırma market research company in 36 provinces of Turkey with 5,292 participants included the following results:

Local elections will be held in about three months’ time, but if local elections were held this week, in other words if you went to the polling station this Sunday, who - which party - would you vote for in the local elections for the Municipal Assembly?
AKP 39.8%
CHP 32.7%
MHP 17.8%
BDP 7.9%
OTHERS 1.8%

If General Parliamentary Elections were held today, in other words if you were to vote today, who - which party - would you vote for?
AKP 43.3%
CHP 28.7%
MHP 18.5%
BDP 8.3%
OTHERS 1.2%

http://www.cumhuriyet.com.tr/foto/26145 ... nketi.html

So Erdogan would form a coalition with BDP?. If he remains in power would he continue to move away from his traditional allies in the West and be forced to give up on the "trnc" - we live in hope.

Those figures probably still translate into a parliamentary democracy for the AKP thanks to the way that the votes for parties remaining below the threshold are redistributed. Sadly, the AKP's electoral support is holding up, although the figures for local elections give cause for hope.

[Jerry]

Those figures probably still translate into a parliamentary democracy for the AKP thanks to the way that the votes for parties remaining below the threshold are redistributed. Sadly, the AKP's electoral support is holding up, although the figures for local elections give cause for hope.

My point is Tim, would the AKP remaining in power be a good or a bad thing for Cyprus? The way Erdogan and his party is going he may end up divorced from his traditional allies and then put under pressure to leave Cyprus. On the other hand a regime that remains faithful to the West would no doubt be allowed to continue with its colonisation of the island as it has for the past 40 years.

[bill cobbett]

Well and put over-simply, if as some have said that CY is a prize for Turkey's past loyalty to the West, then CY might become somewhat of a penalty under different perspectives. Who knows.

... but coming back to this re-trial of hundreds of officers in the TA, the BBC reports today...

" ... The Turkish Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, says he favours the retrial of hundreds of military officers convicted of plotting to overthrow the government.

It comes after his senior adviser suggested that the officers had been framed by the police and judiciary.

Hundreds of people were jailed in 2012 and 2013 in two high-profile cases, called Sledgehammer and Ergenekon.

Correspondents say the remarks represent a political turnaround. ..."


The BBC report also contains this bit of opinion by James Reynold...

"... No-one here suggests that the military is about to recover its former role as the final arbiter in political life. But, if a retrial of convicted officers is ordered, the armed forces may be a beneficiary of the power struggle between the government and the Gulenist network. ..."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-25617637

[Tim Drayton]

Those figures probably still translate into a parliamentary democracy for the AKP thanks to the way that the votes for parties remaining below the threshold are redistributed. Sadly, the AKP's electoral support is holding up, although the figures for local elections give cause for hope.

My point is Tim, would the AKP remaining in power be a good or a bad thing for Cyprus? The way Erdogan and his party is going he may end up divorced from his traditional allies and then put under pressure to leave Cyprus. On the other hand a regime that remains faithful to the West would no doubt be allowed to continue with its colonisation of the island as it has for the past 40 years.

On that point, I would have to pass. It is hard enough to guess what is going to happen in Turkey, apart from saying that a huge transformation is underway, without trying to guess how this will impact on Cyprus.

[repulsewarrior]

...my two cents, if Erdogan survives, there will be war, against the Occidental world, because his madness will not end with the collapse of his aims, (read: the huge reforms around which billions have been invested) to change the face of Europe one way or another, as an Islamist, and for a greatness where his "Turkishness" defines the Turkish State beyond Kemal.

...90 million is quite a social-economy, it seems split, but worse still, it seems ready for great turmoil, one way or the other.

[Tim Drayton]

600 police officers have been assigned to new duties within the Ankara force in the ongoing reshuffle aimed at neutralising the Gülen movement's influence in the police.

http://www.cumhuriyet.com.tr/haber/2652 ... syonu.html

I note that Cumhuriyet columnist Hikmet Çetinkaya has written today that he expects the Gülenists to be brought to their knees, although he also thinks that the AKP will be weakened.

It is telling that the Prime-Minister's son, Bilal Erdoğan, is successfully cocking a snoop at the public prosecution by failing to attend and make a statement as a suspect, despite being summoned to do so, and he has not yet been arrested and taken by force to do so, as should happen.