Cyprus-Forum.com

[Get Real!]

Already people are complaining that the Cyprus finds are nowhere near those of Qatar or Saudi Arabia!

You just cannot please anyone in this country… it’s like there’s a curse of negativity and doom.

[CBBB]

Already people are complaining that the Cyprus finds are nowhere near those of Qatar or Saudi Arabia!

You just cannot please anyone in this country… it’s like there’s a curse of negativity and doom.

We love tragedy.

[Paphitis]

Already people are complaining that the Cyprus finds are nowhere near those of Qatar or Saudi Arabia!

You just cannot please anyone in this country… it’s like there’s a curse of negativity and doom.

That is what I hate about you lot and Greeks are exactly the same.

Always negative. Pisses me off!

[repulsewarrior]

Also be interesting to see the compositional matrix of the gas as, at the moment, "dirty wet gas" is more desirable ...... The greater the ethane, propane, butane , ISO pentane and other C6+ hydrocarbons - the better

The world is facing a glut of Methane with prices sure to drop...... I'm visiting sites in the Bakken plays soon where they flare >$5 million worth if methane a day as it's not worth investing in network infra structure at present

That's interesting bsharpish but there is no info on composition in the press release... so the dirtier the gas the better...???

When you say longer chain C6+ HCs ... in simple language, are we talking oil that can be separated...???

It's easier to say that " natural gas " is FAR from natural and never homogenous

The proportion of methane is highly variable a "normal matrix" if there is such a thing will look like this -

Methane CH4 70-90%
Ethane C2H6. 5-12%
Propane C3H8. 3-8%
Butane C4H10. 3-8%
Carbon Dioxide CO2 0-8%
Oxygen O2 0-0.2%
Nitrogen N2 0-5%
C6+ hydrocarbons 0-2%
Hydrogen sulphide H2S 0-5%
Rare gases A, He, Ne, Xe trace ( although in rare cases He can exceed 10% - it's where the worlds helium comes from)
Mercury trace

It's actually a far from natural gas by the time it's delivered to the user ......... Just sounds " healthier" as natural gas.

The real value at present is NOT. In the methane .... Cryogenic separation is used to strip out the other elements

For example - Ethane is in high demand as once it's been steam cracked into ethylene it's the base for many plastics

C6+ covers a blend of hydrocarbon alkanes found entrained in either gas or liquid ( usually aerosolised) phase within the matrix as a whole .... Actually rarely above C8 although I've seen c12 in trace amounts

I'll get really boring and talk about gas chromatographs, Joules Thomson effect, von karmann street vortex, entrainment issues, resonant frequency calculations,

...please do, i find this 'boring" riveting.

@ the nay sayers, being at the start of the pack is as important as the quantity you have, when it comes to the business of exploiting the Gaz. prices will fall, but providing for the alliance at this early stage of several partners allows for the risks of production/transportation to be reduced, financially speaking.

furthermore, taking a more cynical tone, even this small quantity is more than Turkey has, and that says something given the partners involved, and to them, she can only be a service provider.

[kimon07]

Being a very simple minded person I will make some very simple minded observations:

Block 12 is just one block out of 13 of the CY EEZ. And "Aphrodite" is just one field out of 9 in block 12.

“Aphrodite” alone is expected to yield 14bln US$ net in 14 years, an amount a bit higher than the total debt of Cyprus after the bail in (10 bln euro/about 13 bln US$).

And then, there are 12 more blocks in the EEZ. If they are also yield an average net profit of 1 bln US$ each per year for 14 years, that will give an additional total of, 170 bln US$ (1bln x 12 blocks x 14 years) AFTER the debt has been paid of by "Aphrodite" Not bad at all I think.

On the other hand, 13 bln per year (from all 13 blocks) means approx. a 60% increase of the annual GDP of Cyprus of today or am I wrong?

[bsharpish]

Let's forget the drilling costs, extraction, processing and then either subsea pipeline or LNG facility .... All of which cost billions.....here's just 1 of many reasons why expediency Is absolutely necessary -

https://www.trans-adriatic-pipeline.com ... ticle/414/

Gaz de France and Eon have already signed deals to buy this gas travelling across Anatolia into the Balkans alongside gas companies from Bulgaria , Italy , Switzerland AND Greece.

Turkey doesn't need its own gas ..... It has its greasy mits on the pipe and a great deal with a neighbouring friendly country..... Now add the distinct possibility of Israel " going its own way" and developing export facilities from leviathan ... Which incidentally is already producing gas !

All this before Cyprus extracts any useable gas and is years away from export facilities ........ NOW consider Qatar , Petronas and VERY soon the USA with massive export facilities ....... If Cyprus procrastinates and allows the political instabilities of the region to delay entry to the market ...... It'll be turning up at the market with the oldest oranges in the basket

[bsharpish]

More data ..... Read towards the bottom of the first article to get an idea of the volumes of American gas due to be exported

http://www.ogj.com/articles/2013/09/doe ... tries.html


4 approved multi stream LNG export plants and 19 plus under application - incidentally I was at this site a few weeks ago

Also consider its a substantially existing site and look at the cost to upgrade the plant ...... Cyprus needs a scratch build .... I'd guess 2.5 - 5 billion euro cost depending on format ...... All this has to come from revenue !! As no one will build it for free ..... I'd be surprised if state nett revenue from this block exceeds 7% of the quoted figure.

Finally FYI - The USA will become the world biggest hydrocarbon producer this year - so add the three giants of Russia, Saudi and the USA ..... Then throw in Qatar , Indonesia , Azerbaijan , Australia etc etc ...... And while important regionally, the Aphrodite field is very behind the game in market share, time to market and subject to both confidence issues for prospective investors ( ie Cyprus does not have much of a financial stability reputation at present ) and geopolitical stability issues.

I truly want Cyprus to succeed in exploiting this golden opportunity ...... But history as taught us that once it's political class removes there fingers from there collective asses the first thing they'll do is load there own pockets.

Transparency, competence and speed are need like never before ....... Let's hope it happens

[GreekIslandGirl]

There are a number of contradictions in your analysis, bsharpish.

Primarily, you paint a picture of the present intensity of gas production and transport in many countries, yet you oppose Cyprus joining this vibrant economy.

You then say how cheap gas is now and yet you insist Cyprus should be quick in extracting to sell asap.

You liken gas to oranges that rot. Gas is very, very old. It's not going to rot if there are delays. Whether we extract right away or wait for the price to rise yet higher is a matter of pros and cons. Other countries are left only with "fracking" as an option, such is the desperation for gas.

Either way, Cyprus has many options and they are all win win because there is enough to make it viable. Or do you disagree?

[Oceanside50]

One thing left out of the B"s analysis is that demand will increase due to heavy natural gas infrastructure development already underway...I predict that all of Cyprus' plots will be up and running by the end of 2015 to meet the upcoming demand..

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kensilverst ... nd-trucks/



http://www.pngrb.gov.in/newsite/pdf/vis ... 092013.pdf
"..The tea leaves would tend to indicate that the transportation sector will increasingly fill up using natural gas: LNG is best with heavy duty trucks while compressed natural gas, or CNG, is used to power passenger vehicles and corporate fleets. The momentum, however, will be slow mainly because of a nascent infrastructure that would support such changes. But some high profile public and private players are working on that, and are expecting success.

“As global demand for transportation fuel increases, including LNG, Shell is well positioned to meet this demand,” says Marvin Odum, president of Shell Oil Company. “LNG will be a welcome addition to Shell’s portfolio of quality transportation fuels.”

What’s Shell up to? It is working with Wartsila North America to develop larger engines that could run on the fuel. It is also joining with Westport Innovations to co-market the need for new LNG-fueled trucks as well as partnering with GE’s transportation division to assist the rail industry in building locomotive engines that can function on both diesel and LNG

The demand for Natural Gas will increase, in the near future, due to heavy infrastructure investment:

http://www.environmentalleader.com/2013 ... gant-says/


"... The primary energy mix of India is also set to alter on account of the substitution of oil by natural gas. The share of natural gas in the energy mix is expected to increase to 20% in 2025 and beyond as compared to 11% in 2010. The expected change in the primary energy basket for India in 2010 and 2025 has been presented in Table 1. Based on the plans for expansion in natural gas supply in the country with the help of additional RLNG terminals, nation wide transmission pipeline network and transnational pipelines expected to materialize in next 5 to 10 years, it is envisaged that the share of natural gas in the primary energy mix would reach 20% till 2030. However to achieve a 20% share of natural gas in the primary energy it is required to attract and sustain investments in the gas infrastructure including the cross country pipelines..."

And China with its 100,000km natural gas pipeline, that will be able to supply 1billion Chinese with Natural Gas...
http://www.hydrocarbons-technology.com/ ... east4.html

[Paphitis]

There are a number of contradictions in your analysis, bsharpish.

Primarily, you paint a picture of the present intensity of gas production and transport in many countries, yet you oppose Cyprus joining this vibrant economy.

You then say how cheap gas is now and yet you insist Cyprus should be quick in extracting to sell asap.

You liken gas to oranges that rot. Gas is very, very old. It's not going to rot if there are delays. Whether we extract right away or wait for the price to rise yet higher is a matter of pros and cons. Other countries are left only with "fracking" as an option, such is the desperation for gas.

Either way, Cyprus has many options and they are all win win because there is enough to make it viable. Or do you disagree?

There are a number of contradictions in your analysis, bsharpish.

Primarily, you paint a picture of the present intensity of gas production and transport in many countries, yet you oppose Cyprus joining this vibrant economy.

You then say how cheap gas is now and yet you insist Cyprus should be quick in extracting to sell asap.

You liken gas to oranges that rot. Gas is very, very old. It's not going to rot if there are delays. Whether we extract right away or wait for the price to rise yet higher is a matter of pros and cons. Other countries are left only with "fracking" as an option, such is the desperation for gas.

Either way, Cyprus has many options and they are all win win because there is enough to make it viable. Or do you disagree?

It is not just a matter of Cypriot Gas!

Israel and Egypt also have massive reserves which will need to be taken to market, probably within the EU! All 3 countries are exactly in the same position.

Israel, probably will not want to take its Gas through Syria, Lebanon and then through Turkey. If they did, Egypt and Cyprus will piggy back. More likely for Israel to go through Cyprus and then Crete, Peloponnese and then Italy.

The costs for extraction are very high but it is hardly an expense Cyprus will need to concern itself with. In the end, private firms like Noble Energy, will look at all the pros and cons, and if there is no profit in it, they will be gone. Cyprus gets royalties, taxes, investment and many Cypriots will get jobs in the lucrative Gas Industry who will spend their money in Cyprus. We are talking very high wages.

US, Australian, Indonesian Gas production will increase but it is a lot more expensive to transport this Gas to the EU rather than Cypriot/Israeli/Egyptian Gas. They will supply the North American and Asia Pacific markets. The fact that production in these countries will increase is an indication for Cyprus.

If the price is low now, it is merely as a result of the financial crisis and lower demand. This is very cyclic and no doubt prices will once again rise withing the next 2 to 3 years.