UK gas supply six hours from running out in March
Britain came within six hours of running out of natural gas in March, according to a senior energy official, highlighting the risk of supply shortages amid declining domestic production and a growing reliance on imports.
“We really only had six hours’ worth of gas left in storage as a buffer,” said Rob Hastings, director of energy and infrastructure at the Crown Estate, the property portfolio managed on behalf of the Queen. “If it had run any lower it would have meant . . . interruptions to supply.”
The Crown Estate owns the rights to gas storage sites under the UK seabed including Rough, the UK’s largest gas storage facility. Rough is leased by Centrica, owner of British Gas.
British wholesale gas prices surged to a record in late March, after a technical fault temporarily shut down one of the main import pipelines. The disruption coincided with a period of low gas storage levels as persistent wintry weather drove up demand for gas.
The price spike triggered fears that household energy bills could rise this year. SSE, one of the big six power suppliers, warned on Wednesday that consumers should brace themselves for higher bills “unless there is a sustained reduction in prices in wholesale gas and electricity markets”.
Mr Hastings backed that view: “We are likely to find gas prices rise by a lot in a year.”
The March price volatility highlighted Britain’s vulnerability to supply disruptions as its own gas production declines and it becomes more dependent on imports, especially pipeline gas from Norway and the Netherlands. The UK, which once received almost all its gas from the North Sea, became a net importer in 2004.
The country also has relatively low levels of gas storage. Some forecasts suggest that storage capacity will have to double by 2020 to ensure security of gas supply in winter, when demand peaks.
Mr Hastings’ view on the danger the UK faced in March is, however, disputed by others. “It is true that there wasn’t a huge amount of storage left – but there never is at the end of winter,” said Nick Winser, executive director of National Grid. “The UK has low storage levels by international standards, but there is a large diversity of [supply] sources. Our gas supply resilience is quite substantial.”
He added that the market worked as it should in March, with rising prices attracting supplies from other sources such as LNG.
According to Mr Winser, March gas demand was running at 350-370m cubic metres a day, while the UK’s import system was capable of delivering 530 mcm/d without storage.
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