Cyprus-Forum.com

[bg_turk]

Alexis,

please dont lecture me on how morally wrong it is that there are turkish troops in the island. I know your position very well, I have heard it at least a thousand times already, and you are discussing it as if we are negotiating the withdrawal of turkish troops.

I said you were not sincere because you were trying to pursuade me that you wanted the withdrawal of Turkish troops for TCs' good. This is not the case and you know it very well, and your motivations does not stem from any concern about the welfare of turkish cypriots, does it?

Otherwise I understand your points about the demilitarisation of Cyprus, and I hope it happens. But for some reason I think you will find it hard to persuade Brittain to demilitarize its bases.

[Alexis]

I said you were not sincere because you were trying to pursuade me that you wanted the withdrawal of Turkish troops for TCs' good. This is not the case and you know it very well, and your motivations does not stem from any concern about the welfare of turkish cypriots, does it?

Not at all. I want the withdrawal of Turkish troops to be coupled with a comprehensive settlement. I made that clear from the start when you asked me:

Why do GCs insist on withdrawing all the troops seperately, and not as part of an overall agreement?

I replied saying:

I'm not sure that the GCs do insist on this. I believe it is a preference, but as long as an agreement was reached in which demilitarisation occured over a relatively short timespan (i.e. months rather than years) as part of a comprehensive settlement, most GCs would be happy.

I never said that because most GCs would prefer troop withdrawal that it would be anything more than a symbolic gesture. I did not even, in fact , state that I personally would like it this way. I should have made that point a little clearer as maybe it was implied by my statement.
I then went on to say:

The presence of such a large Turkish contingency in Cyprus is more of a detriment to the TCs however, as the international community regards them with suspicion. Almost all military experts have said that the presence of such a large army on so small a territory is way over the top. Even if you use the argument that they are only here for safety, the numbers just do not add up and given Turkey's air superiority it's nothing short of a farce. So in short people begin to wonder why Turkey needs such a large force here and begin thinking (despite Turkeys denials) that her interests in Cyprus are more than just the protection of TCs.

Which has been my main argument all along.
I am not having a go at Turkey here just for the sake of it.
What she has done here has been condemned and continues to be condemned by the international community for a reason.
Her withdrawing troops would benefit the TCs far more than the GCs imo.

I believe your original question was:

Do you honestly expect anybody to belive that in the case of a complete turkish withdrawal and a security vacuum in the north, the south will remain idle and not reclaim the territory that "rightfully" belongs to it?

To which I replied that there would still be TC troops left behind, and more importantly Turkey would still have air superiority and be able to mobilise quickly enough if conflict were to occur. Perhaps what I should have made it clear here that I do not believe the GC CNG would act if there was a complete withdrawal of Turkish troops.

please dont lecture me on how morally wrong it is that there are turkish troops in the island. I know your position very well, I have heard it at least a thousand times already, and you are discussing it as if we are negotiating the withdrawal of turkish troops.

I apologise if I came out sounding like a lecturer.
This was not my intention. Remember this is a discussion forum so I would not want my posts to viewed as lectures of fact but simply as my opinion on the subject. I also do appreciate your moral stance on the Turkish 'operation' which you have made clear on many occasions.
Despite my tone sometimes I still respect your point of view, otherwise I would not be here.

[Piratis]

For me it doesn't matter if there are 40.000 or 100.000 or 1000 troops. What matters is that Turkey is illegally occupying part of our country. What does it matter how many troops she has now in Cyprus when they can bring 1000s more if anybody tries to apply legality and human rights to north Cyprus?

The only thing that it can matter is if TCs admit that the army presence in the occupied areas is helping Turkey to control them and that they would be more free to take their own decisions without this army.

[bg_turk]

I apologise if I came out sounding like a lecturer.
This was not my intention. Remember this is a discussion forum so I would not want my posts to viewed as lectures of fact but simply as my opinion on the subject. I also do appreciate your moral stance on the Turkish 'operation' which you have made clear on many occasions.
Despite my tone sometimes I still respect your point of view, otherwise I would not be here.

Alexis, I didn't mean to sound harsh, you do not need to apologise for anything. Of course I respect your point of view as well, and I am sure I would think according to the same lines if I were greek cypriot.
I just wanted to change the tone of the discussion so that we can share our real concerns and understanding sincerely, and not try to pursuade each other, or "cheat" each other into believing in each others point of view. Otherwise this forum will get so cliched with turks repeating their side of the story, and greeks their own, I guess it must become tiring for you as well, after some point.
At least we have people like Birkibrisli and Bananiot to add a little bit of flavor, otherwise this forum would be damn boring
I think already I can recite the arguments of both sides even in my sleep.

[Alexis]

I just wanted to change the tone of the discussion so that we can share our real concerns and understanding sincerely, and not try to pursuade each other, or "cheat" each other into believing in each others point of view. Otherwise this forum will get so cliched with turks repeating their side of the story, and greeks their own, I guess it must become tiring for you as well, after some point.
At least we have people like Birkibrisli and Bananiot to add a little bit of flavor, otherwise this forum would be damn boring
I think already I can recite the arguments of both sides even in my sleep.

You're definitely right there. Bananiot definitely adds some spark to the proceedings as does Birkibrisli (perhaps in a more diplomatic way).
Perhaps we would just repeat our point of view over and over to no avail without them, but I know that I for one am more sympathetic to the TCs plight now than I was before reading posts in this forum.

[BirKibrisli]

Hello,everyone,
A quick post as I am away from home again,for about a week.
I've just read the last 3/4 pages,and most of you make a lot of sense.
I agree with the notion that it doesn't really matter how many soldiers Turkey has on Cyprus,the security aspect could be covered without any soldiers at all, from turkey via the air superiority we all agree on.
So the reason why there are 40,000 soldiers is really political/strategic.
I was just wondering if the USA is in any way involved in this strategy.I don't know if you know but Erdogan is on record for saying "If the USA asked us to leave Cyprus,we will have to do it!"Now,could the reason why the USA is not asking Turkey to leave because the two have some sort of hidden agenda/plan for the TRNC? Could it be possible that the USA be granted bases on the North in a future solution senario not yet spoken about?Wouldn't that be just dandy for the USA???

[Khan]

Hello,everyone,
A quick post as I am away from home again,for about a week.
I've just read the last 3/4 pages,and most of you make a lot of sense.
I agree with the notion that it doesn't really matter how many soldiers Turkey has on Cyprus,the security aspect could be covered without any soldiers at all, from turkey via the air superiority we all agree on.
So the reason why there are 40,000 soldiers is really political/strategic.
I was just wondering if the USA is in any way involved in this strategy.I don't know if you know but Erdogan is on record for saying "If the USA asked us to leave Cyprus,we will have to do it!"Now,could the reason why the USA is not asking Turkey to leave because the two have some sort of hidden agenda/plan for the TRNC? Could it be possible that the USA be granted bases on the North in a future solution senario not yet spoken about?Wouldn't that be just dandy for the USA???

No i dont think it could be covered from Turkey birkibrisli, the fact is that now GC are in EU - they would only have to launch a lightning attack on North and have their actions protected by the EU and UN. Where does that leave Turkey? They could not attack the EU without facing diplomatic suicide and ruining 40 years of struggle to gain acceptance in the Europe. And considering the amount the GC spend on arms it is a very real possibility, i know you will say if Turkish army left then GC would not spend so much and pose less risk. But GC will always be hostile to the North and they could always smuggle 20,000 mainland Greek soldiers like they did in the 60's.

And i dont buy the USA conspiracy theories, they already have bases in Incirlik and can always rely on Kuwait. Besides I dont think any Cypriot would accept the USA having a base in Cyprus, would make us a prime target.

[Alexis]

No i dont think it could be covered from Turkey birkibrisli, the fact is that now GC are in EU - they would only have to launch a lightning attack on North and have their actions protected by the EU and UN. Where does that leave Turkey? They could not attack the EU without facing diplomatic suicide and ruining 40 years of struggle to gain acceptance in the Europe. And considering the amount the GC spend on arms it is a very real possibility, i know you will say if Turkish army left then GC would not spend so much and pose less risk. But GC will always be hostile to the North and they could always smuggle 20,000 mainland Greek soldiers like they did in the 60's.

Do you honestly think the CNG would attack Northern Cyprus when the THK has effective air superiority over the entire region? Even if Turkey thought twice about attacking Cyprus because of the EU (remember she currently occupies by military force part of the EU and the EU is not doing much about it) there would still be TC forces there with air support from Turkey at least initially. There's no way Turkey would not retaliate under such circumstances.
Furthermore, any hostility invoked by the GC side resulting in bloodshed would be immediately condemned by both the EU and international communities it would be political suicide for the GCs. For the RoC there would be no guarantee of victory and far less international support than she has now post Annan Plan rejection. I doubt Greece would provide any troops or even air support for such a venture especially with the current climate of detente between her and Turkey. Plus any war in Cyprus would attract the interests of the US and NATO.
As for the defence spending, remember that the RoC's total GDP is similar in size to Turkey's defense expenditure despite the amounts Cyprus spends on defence. The mismatch in Army sizes is simply staggering.

[Main_Source]

the fact is that now GC are in EU

Nope, just Cypriots are in the EU.

[Khan]

No i dont think it could be covered from Turkey birkibrisli, the fact is that now GC are in EU - they would only have to launch a lightning attack on North and have their actions protected by the EU and UN. Where does that leave Turkey? They could not attack the EU without facing diplomatic suicide and ruining 40 years of struggle to gain acceptance in the Europe. And considering the amount the GC spend on arms it is a very real possibility, i know you will say if Turkish army left then GC would not spend so much and pose less risk. But GC will always be hostile to the North and they could always smuggle 20,000 mainland Greek soldiers like they did in the 60's.

Do you honestly think the CNG would attack Northern Cyprus when the THK has effective air superiority over the entire region? Even if Turkey thought twice about attacking Cyprus because of the EU (remember she currently occupies by military force part of the EU and the EU is not doing much about it) there would still be TC forces there with air support from Turkey at least initially. There's no way Turkey would not retaliate under such circumstances.
Furthermore, any hostility invoked by the GC side resulting in bloodshed would be immediately condemned by both the EU and international communities it would be political suicide for the GCs. For the RoC there would be no guarantee of victory and far less international support than she has now post Annan Plan rejection. I doubt Greece would provide any troops or even air support for such a venture especially with the current climate of detente between her and Turkey. Plus any war in Cyprus would attract the interests of the US and NATO.
As for the defence spending, remember that the RoC's total GDP is similar in size to Turkey's defense expenditure despite the amounts Cyprus spends on defence. The mismatch in Army sizes is simply staggering.

Alexis, if the Turkish army withdrew to Turkey the situation would be even worse than in the 1960's. The plan back then was to take control of the island before Turkey could intervene, the plan would be the same now except you'd be considered to be within your rights to attack TC's this time. Think of the UN and EU resolutions condeming Turkeys intervetion and the TRNC since 1974, legally there is nothing between GC occupying TC land except the Turkish army.

If the Turkish army across the meditterenean didn't deter GC 30 years ago, why should it now?

the fact is that now GC are in EU

Nope, just Cypriots are in the EU.

That all sounds very nice but i prefere to discuss reality.