Cyprus-Forum.com

[bg_turk]

zdrastvuy Lana,

Do you think Turkey would attack the South?

[Kifeas]

The GC side had proposed for a complete demilitarization of the island, even before a solution is being agreed

Kifeas, do you think this would be a good idea? As Birkibrisli said Turkey is only 5 minutes away. They can bring back that army really fast. How are we then going to defend ourselves if we have no army?

Sotos,
Do you believe that now that we have an Army but at the same time we also have the presence of a 40,000 Turkish Army in Cyprus, we are in a better position defending ourselves, than when we do not have an army but at the same time the entire of the Turkish military presence will be removed from Cyprus? I believe not! Furthermore, when the GC side is proposing a complete demilitarization, this is in accordance and in line with the UN SC resolutions. It requires an agreement by all concerned parties which will also be guaranteed by the UN SC under chapter 7 of the UN chapter. The role of security in Cyprus will be assumed by the UN force that already exists here, but with a deferent mandate. When an agreement is guaranteed by the UN under chapter 7, it means that whenever any side violates the demilitarization act and transfers weapons and /or army in Cyprus, either secretly or in an invading fashion, the UN and the international community are obliged to take any unilateral action, even a military one, in order to reverse the violation of the act. It is the strongest type (under chapter 7) of resolution and guarantee that the UN can take. It is the type of resolution that UN SC has made recently in the case of Syria and Lebanon.

All the previous UN SC resolutions that we had so far in relation to Cyprus and which condemn Turkey’s occupation, were all under chapter 5, that is why they remained as only words on paper and with no action to accompany them. I do not say they were of no value, as they constitute international law and a moral victory for our side and they prohibit the recognition of the “TRNC,” but they UN has not obligation to take action and enforce them.

Furthermore, besides alleviating the threat of a having a holocaust in Cyprus with even a minor and accidental ignition spark, the removal of Turkish troops from Cyprus will also induce the TCs to become more conciliatory and compromising towards a solution of the political aspects of the Cyprus problem.

As you know, the present saturation of so many arms in a tiny place like Cyprus is more than enough to raze to the ground the entire of it, on both sides of the divide and in a number of just a few hours. None of the towns and villages, either in the south or in the north will remain in place and the only losers -if any of us survive, will be the people of Cyprus on both sides. The only winner will be Turkey, which even if it loses all of its 40,000 troops here it still has another 500,000 in Turkey -besides the possibility that no city or infrastructure in Turkey will be affected.

[Kifeas]

The chances of the RoC 'attacking' the North are simply ZERO ZERO ZERO! however, many/few Turkish military are based there.

The RoC politicians are not very smart - but they do know the 'moral high ground'/Turkey EU entry is the only viable way to establishing a solution, satisfactory to the South.

Lana

I do not know how more or less smart the politicians of the RoC are, in comparison to the rest of the world, but since Svetlana you are the ...guru of politics, why don't you just tell us what they are doing wrong and which you -the smarter one, would have done differently if you was in their shoes?

[Svetlana]

Hi bg_tk

Perhaps I am more neutral than most on CYPROB. Unless a mad General takes power I cannot see Turkey invading the RoC. What would it be after in the South? There are few TC to protect, TC property is in trust, there are no to oil/mineral recources to 'steal'. They would know they could not maintain a presence there in the long term; political and military force (NATO/EU) or at a National level (Greece and the UK) would not allow a continuing presence.

No, there is no upside to a Turkish invasion but it would be polictical suicide for a country trying to enter the EU and to gain greater acceptance on the World stage.

Having said that, I understand the fears on both sides, based on events of 30-40 years ago; it is just that I do not think they are realistic fears. Most of my GC friends do not regard Turkey as a threat to RoC sovereignty - but I image the older generation still do.

Strangley, in my limited experience, it is GC not living in Cyprus who are the most jingoistic.

lana

[bg_turk]

Furthermore, besides alleviating the threat of a having a holocaust in Cyprus with even a minor and accidental ignition spark, the removal of Turkish troops from Cyprus will also induce the TCs to become more conciliatory and compromising towards a solution of the political aspects of the Cyprus problem.

The removal of Turkish troops will reduce the negotiating power of Turkish Cypriots to an absolute zero, and will only increase the hardline tendencies among the GC leadership.

Do you honestly expect anybody to belive that in the case of a complete turkish withdrawal and a security vacuum in the north, the south will remain idle and not reclaim the territory that "rightfully" belongs to it?

In the event of a complete Turkish Withdrawal, what will stop the RoC from abolishing with the status quo and taking over the north, and imposing a solution under their own terms and conditions?

[bg_turk]

Hi bg_tk

Perhaps I am more neutral than most on CYPROB. Unless a mad General takes power I cannot see Turkey invading the RoC. What would it be after in the South? There are few TC to protect, TC property is in trust, there are no to oil/mineral recources to 'steal'. They would know they could not maintain a presence there in the long term; political and military force (NATO/EU) or at a National level (Greece and the UK) would not allow a continuing presence.

No, there is no upside to a Turkish invasion but it would be polictical suicide for a country trying to enter the EU and to gain greater acceptance on the World stage.

Having said that, I understand the fears on both sides, based on events of 30-40 years ago; it is just that I do not think they are realistic fears. Most of my GC friends do not regard Turkey as a threat to RoC sovereignty - but I image the older generation still do.

Strangley, in my limited experience, it is GC not living in Cyprus who are the most jingoistic.

lana

Spasiba for the explanation, Lana.

[Alexis]

Do you honestly expect anybody to belive that in the case of a complete turkish withdrawal and a security vacuum in the north, the south will remain idle and not reclaim the territory that "rightfully" belongs to it?

Hi bg,

What about the Turkish Cypriots? I might have this totally wrong but I was told that TCs do military service + maintain professional units and number close to 5000 at any one time. I don't know under what structure the TCs serve but presumably there is a TC corps in existence. This of course would not leave Cyprus and, alongside a modicum of Turkish troops (say the 650 allowed by the RoC constitution), and air superiority would be more than enough of a deterrent to the CNG (which doesn't number much more than 10000 anyway).
Of course this would be coupled with a proportionate withdrawal of Greek troops from Cyprus. Both sides would have access to reservist and the GCs Have more of those, but remember that these would almost certainly take longer to mobilise than the Turkish Army would to reach Cyprus in the event of conflict. The presence of such a large Turkish Army does nothing for the TC cause imo.

[bg_turk]

Alexis,

I do not know much about the turkish cypriot units.
I would personally welcome the withdrawal of all armies from Cyprus and the reduction of tension, but this imo should happen only after an agreed solution.
Why do GCs insist on withdrawing all the troops seperately, and not as part of an overall agreement?

[Alexis]

Alexis,

I do not know much about the turkish cypriot units.
I would personally welcome the withdrawal of all armies from Cyprus and the reduction of tension, but this imo should happen only after an agreed solution.
Why do GCs insist on withdrawing all the troops seperately, and not as part of an overall agreement?

Hi bg_turk,

I'm not sure that the GCs do insist on this. I believe it is a preference, but as long as an agreement was reached in which demilitarisation occured over a relatively short timespan (i.e. months rather than years) as part of a comprehensive settlement, most GCs would be happy. Having such a large number of Turkish troops in the area means that the CNG, military service, military in general enjoy much more support and autonomy from the government than they would otherwise. People are not generally happy with this, they don't want such a large army presence and certainly do not want to send their children to the army for 2 years, also they're not too happy having to spend so much on the military either.
The presence of such a large Turkish contingency in Cyprus is more of a detriment to the TCs however, as the international community regards them with suspicion. Almost all military experts have said that the presence of such a large army on so small a territory is way over the top. Even if you use the argument that they are only here for safety, the numbers just do not add up and given Turkey's air superiority it's nothing short of a farce. So in short people begin to wonder why Turkey needs such a large force here and begin thinking (despite Turkeys denials) that her interests in Cyprus are more than just the protection of TCs.

[bg_turk]

So in short people begin to wonder why Turkey needs such a large force here and begin thinking (despite Turkeys denials) that her interests in Cyprus are more than just the protection of TCs.

Alexis,

of course Turkey's motives are more than the protection of the TC community, Cyprus is a strategically located island for Turkey. If they lose Cyprus Turkey will be surrounded by Greece and greek satellite state from all sides in the mediteranean.