appel wrote:I'm from Iceland and in replies to my posts I've noticed many misconceptions about the contrast between Cyprus and Iceland.
I wanted to describe to you the position Iceland is in, and you can for yourself compare it to the situation Cyprus is in, and the path it might choose to take in coming years.
Crash and consequences:
When the banking system collapsed, the private banks went bust, not the sovereign. The state resurrected the banks as new entities, which took over the domestic payment system, and then put on foreign exchange capital controls (for a week only food, oil and medical supplies could be bought from overseas). Emergency laws were instated. The banks were open throughout the crisis, and everyone were able to withdraw money, use their debit cards and credit cards even over seas. The currency did plummet to half its value. Everyone did have full access to their accounts throughout, and there were no capital controls inside of Iceland. We still have our own currency, in capital controls though.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008%E2%80 ... ial_crisisIn January 2009 there was a semi-revolution, where people protested outside government buildings for many days, finally erupting in all out revolution without the revolt. It was a sight never seen in Iceland, tear gas used, battle geared riot police, fire, stones, and ... a lot of people got scared, and it caused the government to disband. I think the protests put the God fearing reality into every single member of parliament. Thankfully the demands of the people were finally agreed to, a clean house in the central bank and at the financial regulatory, new elections, and a new constitution (still in progress).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Icela ... s_protestsThere was an issue of the state being liable for "Icesave" deposits, amounting to some €5 billion, but after a lengthy dispute and two rejections by referendums (the president kept vetoing the parliament sending the settlement agreement made between Iceland and UK/Dutch to a referendum), the dispute was deferred to a European court which literally threw out the case, it found in favor of Iceland. Case closed, Iceland not liable for those €5 billion after all! No apology from the UK after imposing
anti-terror laws on Iceland and freezing all Icelandic assets in the UK.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Icesave_disputeToday:
It is election month, the elections are due in just over a week. There are around a dozen parties battling for the votes. More than half of the political parties have on the agenda to replace the monetary and banking system in Iceland, to move away from the fractional reserve system towards a full reserve system based on the Chicago-plan:
http://www.positivemoney.org/Recent polls indicate the parties that want this change will get 80% of seats in parliament. One party in particular (Framsokn) is the biggest by far, not shy of majority in parliament. The head of that party has said the new finance minister will be the person who has been advocating the Chicago-plan for years here in Iceland.
Foreign funds bought bonds in the failed banks, and own 35% of all Icelandic kronas (or demand on kronas). They are unable to move this money out of the country because of the capital controls, they have to exchange them to a foreign currency. Recent suggestions from the central bank that is negotiating with these funds indicate they will be willing to bail out with a 70% discount, meaning capital controls might be lifted soon.
Unemployment is 4.7% and is still declining. (eurozone unemployment is at 12% and increasing!)
Inflation is 3.9%, and is declining.
Economic growth is positive, not negative, at +1.6%.
GDP is over $14 billion, for a tiny nation of 320.000.
Government debt is at 98% of GDP. It rose a lot, from around 30-40% pre-crash.
Tourism has boomed and well over 1 million visit every year, giving a steady stream of foreign currency.
A new constitution was drafted, by a special committee of people elected in a national referendum. It's still not been approved though as there are still some disputes over it.
Soon after the crash we started negotiating with the EU for membership. Today, roughly 80% oppose EU membership and 70% oppose the euro.
A lot of bankers have been arrested (I think most of the bankers), and some have been sentenced to prison time. A special prosecutor is still prosecuting the banksters with a lot of cases pending. Iceland has arrested and put more banksters behind bars than the entire western world since 2008. (Does that say something more about the western world than Iceland?)
Iceland sovereign credit rating has been raised several times since the crisis and is now BBB and stable. It never went to default or speculative rating.
In my eyes the problems we have today are few and easy to manage and solve.
Iceland is not in the EU nor has the euro.