Demonax wrote:On the Turkish economy’s vulnerability and why Turkey needs the EU:
Erdogan’s harsh actions against protestors and harsh words against investors could backfire economically. The country depends on foreign investors to fund its big current account deficit. If they turn tail in response to the mounting unrest, interest rates will indeed have to rise....Turkey’s biggest economic weakness is its current account deficit – a sign that consumption has been growing faster than is sustainable. The deficit did fall to 5.9 percent of GDP last year, after a 9.7 percent gap the previous year, as the economy slowed. But it is rising again this year. The April trade deficit was $10.3 billion, up from $6.6 billion last year.
Indeed, the selloff in Turkey’s financial markets began a week or so before the police crackdown on protestors in Istanbul’s Taksim Square on May 31. For example, two-year bond yields rose from 4.8 percent on May 17 to 6 percent at the end of the month; and the stock market fell 8 percent between May 22 and the end of the month.
Until now, international investors have been happy to fund the deficit. Not only were they attracted by the strong economic growth. They also liked Erdogan’s pro-market approach, the political stability they thought he had brought and the prospect that Turkey’s march towards a market democracy would be anchored by negotiations to join the European Union, says Timothy Ash, Standard Bank’s head of emerging markets research...
http://www.breakingviews.com/hugo-dixon ... 84.article
Yes and reading a well-known financial paper earlier...
the Turkish Central Bank intervened in the currency markets last week to support the TL.... and the currency speculators will have taken note, done their calculations and they'll move in, in greater numbers, when there's easy money to be made.
Erdy the Gasman doesn't have a lot of time left to get to grips with the situation or else the "economic miracle", the real basis of his support, is gonna vanish before his eyes through a weakened currency and a return to mega inflation.
(unsurprising that we are hearing that the TA option is being considered... the markets don't care who is in charge as long as they can see someone is)