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When will Turkey's economic bubble burst?

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Re: When will Turkey's economic bubble burst?

Postby Get Real! » Sat Apr 13, 2013 4:05 pm

B25 wrote:
Get Real! wrote:Turkey has made some powerful friends…

http://www.todayszaman.com/news-312541- ... dents.html


Yes, when Turkey needs a couple of suicide bombers she knows where to go :lol: :lol: :lol:

Her “Zero problems with Somalia” policy is right on track! 8)
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Re: When will Turkey's economic bubble burst?

Postby kurupetos » Mon Apr 15, 2013 12:35 am

Maximus wrote:
Lordo wrote:a bit of inflation is very good for the common man. it reduced debt quicker.


:lol:

What are you laughing at? :? Lordo is Eroglue's chief financial adviser.
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Re: When will Turkey's economic bubble burst?

Postby Lordo » Mon Apr 15, 2013 1:10 am

asikdiri gakindiri
da vlangasu
na hoglasi
na da fais
medo pironi
dje na men imboris na shesis.
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Re: When will Turkey's economic bubble burst?

Postby kurupetos » Tue Apr 16, 2013 11:46 am

Lordo wrote:asikdiri gakindiri
da vlangasu
na hoglasi
na da fais
medo pironi
dje na men imboris na shesis.

Is this the constipation poem? :?
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Re: When will Turkey's economic bubble burst?

Postby Demonax » Thu Jun 06, 2013 9:00 pm

From The New York Times:

Financial Fears Gain Credence as Unrest Shakes Turkey
Hundreds of billions of dollars of short-term loans have been flowing into the country from investors in search of higher yielding assets, financing the very malls and skyscrapers that have so dismayed the small but growing coalition of secular intellectuals, left-of-center political activists and a smattering of the professional classes.

What worries financial experts is that this so-called hot money can leave the country just as quickly as it arrived, touching off a currency crisis and, eventually, a collapse in the property markets that could threaten the nation’s banks.

“This is a classic credit boom, with money being thrown at Turkey, especially the banks,” said Tim Lee, an independent economist at Pi Economics in Greenwich, Conn., who has warned for years of a Turkish financial bubble. “At some point, though, you reach a moment when the music stops.”


http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/06/world ... d=tw-share
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Re: When will Turkey's economic bubble burst?

Postby Demonax » Mon Jun 17, 2013 3:51 pm

On the Turkish economy’s vulnerability and why Turkey needs the EU:

Erdogan’s harsh actions against protestors and harsh words against investors could backfire economically. The country depends on foreign investors to fund its big current account deficit. If they turn tail in response to the mounting unrest, interest rates will indeed have to rise....Turkey’s biggest economic weakness is its current account deficit – a sign that consumption has been growing faster than is sustainable. The deficit did fall to 5.9 percent of GDP last year, after a 9.7 percent gap the previous year, as the economy slowed. But it is rising again this year. The April trade deficit was $10.3 billion, up from $6.6 billion last year.

Indeed, the selloff in Turkey’s financial markets began a week or so before the police crackdown on protestors in Istanbul’s Taksim Square on May 31. For example, two-year bond yields rose from 4.8 percent on May 17 to 6 percent at the end of the month; and the stock market fell 8 percent between May 22 and the end of the month.

Until now, international investors have been happy to fund the deficit. Not only were they attracted by the strong economic growth. They also liked Erdogan’s pro-market approach, the political stability they thought he had brought and the prospect that Turkey’s march towards a market democracy would be anchored by negotiations to join the European Union, says Timothy Ash, Standard Bank’s head of emerging markets research...


http://www.breakingviews.com/hugo-dixon ... 84.article
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Re: When will Turkey's economic bubble burst?

Postby bill cobbett » Mon Jun 17, 2013 4:48 pm

Demonax wrote:On the Turkish economy’s vulnerability and why Turkey needs the EU:

Erdogan’s harsh actions against protestors and harsh words against investors could backfire economically. The country depends on foreign investors to fund its big current account deficit. If they turn tail in response to the mounting unrest, interest rates will indeed have to rise....Turkey’s biggest economic weakness is its current account deficit – a sign that consumption has been growing faster than is sustainable. The deficit did fall to 5.9 percent of GDP last year, after a 9.7 percent gap the previous year, as the economy slowed. But it is rising again this year. The April trade deficit was $10.3 billion, up from $6.6 billion last year.

Indeed, the selloff in Turkey’s financial markets began a week or so before the police crackdown on protestors in Istanbul’s Taksim Square on May 31. For example, two-year bond yields rose from 4.8 percent on May 17 to 6 percent at the end of the month; and the stock market fell 8 percent between May 22 and the end of the month.

Until now, international investors have been happy to fund the deficit. Not only were they attracted by the strong economic growth. They also liked Erdogan’s pro-market approach, the political stability they thought he had brought and the prospect that Turkey’s march towards a market democracy would be anchored by negotiations to join the European Union, says Timothy Ash, Standard Bank’s head of emerging markets research...


http://www.breakingviews.com/hugo-dixon ... 84.article


Yes and reading a well-known financial paper earlier... the Turkish Central Bank intervened in the currency markets last week to support the TL.

... and the currency speculators will have taken note, done their calculations and they'll move in, in greater numbers, when there's easy money to be made.

Erdy the Gasman doesn't have a lot of time left to get to grips with the situation or else the "economic miracle", the real basis of his support, is gonna vanish before his eyes through a weakened currency and a return to mega inflation.

(unsurprising that we are hearing that the TA option is being considered... the markets don't care who is in charge as long as they can see someone is)
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Re: When will Turkey's economic bubble burst?

Postby Lordo » Mon Jun 17, 2013 8:46 pm

a country which produces high quality goods cheaper than can be produced in the eu will be fine. especially as the usa donates to them billions in aid.
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Re: When will Turkey's economic bubble burst?

Postby Demonax » Mon Jun 17, 2013 8:57 pm

Lordo wrote:a country which produces high quality goods cheaper than can be produced in the eu will be fine. especially as the usa donates to them billions in aid.


You are a joker. Turkey produces low-quality goods for the developed world. And do you know what America wants in return for its aid to Turkey? I'll give you a clue: it doesn’t want an Islamic republic. :lol:
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Re: When will Turkey's economic bubble burst?

Postby bill cobbett » Mon Jun 17, 2013 9:08 pm

Demonax wrote:
Lordo wrote:a country which produces high quality goods cheaper than can be produced in the eu will be fine. especially as the usa donates to them billions in aid.


You are a joker. Turkey produces low-quality goods for the developed world. And do you know what America wants in return for its aid to Turkey? I'll give you a clue: it doesn’t want an Islamic republic. :lol:


We'll have to make allowances for Vordo, Demon... he's been consuming and spreading Turkish Manure all his life.
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